BLOG: What is a verbal commit from a 13/14 year-old worth?

By the time yesterday's two young verbal commits play for the Gophers, if all goes to plan, none of the current players on the roster will be playing at the University of Minnesota.

And that's if all goes to plan. A half decade can be a lifetime when teenagers choose their college choice before choosing a high school. If history tells us anything, it's far easier for players taking the path that Chaz and Cruz Lucius did - committing at 13 and 14 - to go on another rather than stick with their original.

Without delving into the good, bad and ugly of recruiting itself (a subject for another day), or recruiting getting younger, I wanted to look at whether past early commitments by 13 and 14 year-olds panned out for players and teams. What is a verbal commitment worth? Do star players remain stars? How much do plans change?

The answer is complicated.

First things first, a quick caveat. Both of the two previous 13 year-olds to commit at that early age have yet to play college hockey. That's not because they aren't the elite players in their age group they were when younger. Enough time hasn't passed. Neither is old enough to be of college age or even sign a National Letter of Intent.

Oliver Wahlstrom was in seventh grade when he became the first player born in 2000 to make a verbal commitment, doing so in January 2014. Anthony Cipollone verbally committed to Vermont in August 2015. Born in 2002, he was the first of his age group as well; doing so before any player born in 2001.

Three and a half years later Wahlstrom remains one of the top players in his age group. He played in this past April's U-18 WJC as a 17 year-old and seen to be a probable 2018 first round pick. Unfortunately for Maine, the school Wahlstrom committed to at 13, he'll be going elsewhere. Wahlstrom de-committed a year later and will be attending Harvard next fall.

All of this happened before he entered high school.

Cipollone, as far as I can tell, remains committed to Vermont in fall 2020. (His older brother, also a Vermont commit, plays for the USHL Tri-City Storm. Anthony cannot be drafted in that league until next spring.) Two prior Catamounts making verbal commitments before their 15th birthday didn't pan out, however. One, Connor Anthione, ended up playing Division III hockey. Another forward, Thomas Forgione, made it to campus, however, he finished his college career with 20 points in four years.

Of the first three 14 year-olds to be seen as "the next big thing" and verbally commit, all of whom are old enough to have graduated college, only one stuck with their original commitment. That player? Jon Merill. From 14 onward he went from wunderkind to 2nd round NHL pick to three years at Michigan and a NHL career with the New Jersey Devils.

Cam Fowler these days is also a well-known NHL player, one of the top players in his 2010 draft class, and an unknown Notre Dame player. After giving his word at 14, at the last minute Fowler instead went to the CHL. Things got heated enough over Fowler's defection - he was planning on accelerating a year - where head coach Jeff Jackson accussed the Kitchener Rangers of offering his commit $500,000 and promptly got threatened with a libel suit which didn't materialize.

The third player is Colten St. Clair, who finished his college career a national champion with North Dakota. It technically began with a commitment to Colorado College at 14, which switched to UND at 16 at a time when it appeared he would be one of the top players in his age group. That didn't exactly happen. By 18, St. Clair no longer was one of the top players in his age group. A series of injuries further hampered his collegiate effort.

Those three represent three different ways young commitments go. Best-case sees someone like Merrill. It's just as possible to see a good player go elsewhere (Fowler) or end up being one who in hindsight does not pan out and fit the stereotype of a super young commit (St. Clair).

Minnesota is one of several college teams that can comb through its recruiting history to find its own St. Clair. Theirs would be Seth Ambroz, who committed to the Gophers in August 2008 at age 15. Ambroz, going into his sophomore year, at the time was seen as one of the best players in his age group, a "top-10 NHL draft pick in 3-4 years." He was going to accelerate his studies. Instead, Ambroz spent three years in the USHL, four at Minnesota and ended up being a fifth round draft pick by the Columbus Blue Jackets. He was a productive college player and eventually named alternate captain. However, the size and skill combination that had Ambroz as an elite 15 year-old wasn't there at 18. Players caught up with him.

The Gophers also have their own Fowler in Peter Mueller, who after committing at 15 ended up going to the WHL when he was unable to accelerate his studies. The youngest player to verbally commit to Minnesota prior to the Lucius brothers is Brannon McManus, who will finally play for the school this fall, 3.5 years after announcing he would. Of the three 18 year-old freshman forwards, McManus is the only one not drafted.

(In fairness to McManus, it's not like the two drafted, Casey Mittelstadt - an actual top 10 NHL draft pick - and Scott Reedy, were late pickups. Each committed to the Gophers when they were 15. They aren't alone. You'd be reading for a while if I was to name every 15 year-old commit for every school.)

Neutral Zone reports 12% of all verbal commitments de-committed last season. As recruiting seemingly shifts younger and more 14 and 15 year-olds make verbal commitments, with coaches making risk/reward decisions predicting how their teams will look 3-4 years down the line, before the CHL can officially sing their siren song into the ears of potential players, the next few years will give countless more examples.

In addition to McManus, who followed through with his commitment, several more 14 year-old verbal commits are on campus this season with their original school. Cayden Primeau is at Northeastern. Keith Petruzzelli is at Quinnipiac. Mikey Anderson (another "top 10 NHL Draft pick in 3-4 years" who wasn't in 3-4 years) is a highly touted freshman this fall at UMD, the same school where his brother Joey committed at 14.

But there are also those who won't. Michigan's first commit (Blade Jenkins) born in 2000 - still 14 at the time - is already in the OHL. Joel Farabee was a New Hampshire commit at 14; a BU commit at 15. For every Noah Hanafin, who was 14 year-old commit to Boston College, ending up being a top-10 NHL Draft pick after his one season at BC, there are a couple Cam Askews, a 14 year-old commit to Northeastern thought of as the next big thing, eventually de-committing, committing to BU at 15, de-committing from there to play in QMJHL and going undrafted by the NHL.

Sometimes the cream of the crop at 14 remains the best at 18, 19 and onward. Sometimes they sink while others in their age group rise to the top. Sometimes coaches in the interim retire, move to a new job, or get fired. Each situation is different. Predicting a week ahead, let alone 4 or 5 or even 6 years down the line to 2023, ends up being a challenge.

The only constant, the lone guarantee for any of them? Plans can change.