Friday, June 7, 2019

BLOG: Analyzing the Big Ten's 2019-20 Non-Conference Schedule

Wednesday (June 5, 2019) saw most of the Big Ten teams announcing full 2019-20 schedules.

I already wrote some thoughts on Minnesota's schedule, but one that continues to stick is the Gopher non-conference schedule. From a name value and competition standpoint, Minnesota's foes outside the Big Ten hit on both. The Gophers will be tested.

So with the idea that, on (digital) paper, Minnesota's non-conference schedule should be tough, I wanted to see how it compared to the rest of the conference.

Turns out, of the six Big Ten schools who ended up releasing full schedules, Minnesota faces the toughest set of teams based on last year's Pairwise. That makes sense. The Gophers play two of the top three overall teams and are the only school who released a schedule to not play a team finishing in the bottom-10.

Minnesota's schedule also falls in line with other Big Ten trends, however. The Gophers scheduled nearby schools and old foes. There's little traveling - several schools only take one trip outside its home state - and a slant towards home games in the home/road split.

Each Big Ten non-conference schedule can be found below:

Michigan: 


10 NC games
Home: 5
Away: 3
Neutral Site: 2
2018-19 NCAA Teams: 1

Average from last season's Pairwise: 29.33 (Michigan Tech)/27.66 (Michigan State)
Marquee Game: Hosting Clarkson Oct 11-12

Michigan's schedule features a large helping of Michigan with a dash of North Country and New England. The Wolverines play non-conference games against four different Michigan schools. Full series include hosting Lake Superior State and a home-and-home against Western Michigan. The Wolverines also take its place in the annual Great Lakes Invitational with Michigan Tech, Michigan State and Ferris State.

Facing Ferris State (57th of 60 teams in 2018-19) drops Michigan's rating, but it gets balanced out by a season-opening series against Clarkson (5).

For the most part, this year's schedule matches recent history. Michigan's trip to New Hampshire returns the Wolverines out East after not leaving the state last season, however, the team seems to play. You need to go back to 2013-14 (Omaha) to find a Michigan non-conference game played west of Lake Michigan.

Michigan State


10 NC Games
Home: 4
Away: 4
Neutral Site: 2
2018-19 NCAA Teams: 2

Average from last season's Pairwise: 23.33 (Michigan in GLI)/27.83 (Ferris State in GLI)
Marquee Game: Hosting Cornell on November 1-2

It speaks to the Big Ten that the Spartans, like its neighbors in Ann Arbor, could end up with a tougher non-conference schedule if the teams play one another at the GLI. Regardless, MSU features the best mix of teams and home/road split.

No other Big Ten team plays as many true road non-conference games as Michigan State, who travel to both Northern Michigan and Colorado College. Danton Cole's team also hosts Cornell after sweeping the Big Red in Ithaca last season. The state of Michigan is represented with the GLI, the east with Cornell and the west with CC and Arizona State (now played on separate weekends as the Spartans travel to CC in late October and host ASU the weekend before finals in December). It's a good balance.

Minnesota


10 NC Games
Home: 7
Away: 3
2018-19 NCAA Teams: 2

Average from last season's Pairwise: 21 (SCSU)/21.33 (Minnesota State)
Marquee Game: Hosting North Dakota November 28-29

Without repeating Wednesday's thoughts, it should be noted 2019-20 is the first season Minnesota plays 34 games since 2010-11. The Gophers do not play in any exempted games such as the Ice Breaker Tournament, US Hall of Fame Game or make a trip to Alaska.

Minnesota will play two NCAA Tournament teams regardless of how the Mariucci Classic goes. Both St. Cloud State and Minnesota State made the tournament. Playing other in-state schools after the state of Minnesota had the top three overall seeds helps with the ranking, but not as much as facing three (and possibly four) NCHC teams. Only Wisconsin faces multiple teams in a conference that had 6 of the 23 spots in the 2018-19 Pairwise. (Similarly, the Big Ten had all seven teams in the top 32.)

Notre Dame

10 Games
Home: 7
Away: 3
2018-19 NCAA Teams: 1

Average from last season's Pairwise: 26.2
Marquee Game: A rare cross-country home-and-home with Boston College Dec 6 (Chestnut Hill) and Dec 8 (South Bend)

Being the only D1 men's hockey program in Indiana does not stop Notre Dame from playing home-and-home series. Three of the Fighting Irish's five non-conference series will go back and forth between Compton Family Ice Arena and elsewhere. The two-time Big Ten conference tournament champions travel for a game at nearby Bowling Green, Western Michigan and nowhere nearby Boston College.

Playing the Falcons, Broncos and Lake Superior State gives off a very CCHA vibe. BC brings a Hockey East vibe to the table while Notre Dame also welcomes Air Force for a season-opening Friday/Sunday series. Like Penn State a week later, Notre Dame's first road trip will be to Mariucci.

Ohio State


8 NC Games
Home: 4
Away: 2
Neutral Site: 4
NCAA Teams: 1/3 (Depending on whether OSU plays Bowling Green in the Ice Breaker and Providence in the Fortress Invitational)

Average from last season's Pairwise: 36.4 (Bowling Green)/ 40.2 (RIT)
Marquee Game: Western Michigan Oct 11 or Fortress Invitational Jan 3-4

A strange non-conference schedule. Not only is Ohio State not taking advantage of playing in the season-opening Ice Breaker Tournament by scheduling two extra games, but the Buckeyes currently have two fewer than the maximum 34 games allowed without exemptions Buckeyes also play in a second tournament, heading out to Las Vegas January 3-4, 2020 against Providence, Cornell and Army in the Fortress Invitational. OSU plays Cornell in the first game.

Unlike others, Ohio State does not play other in-state schools. OSU continues to not have Miami on its schedule for a third straight season while Bowling Green is not guaranteed as part of the Ice Breaker with WMU and RIT. (Toledo is home to the Ice Breaker, though.) Outside the Ice Breaker, the Buckeyes face three schools who finished near the bottom nationally in Omaha, Colgate, and Mercyhurst on the road.

Still, who would have thought four months before the season that Ohio State's opening stretch of at Arizona State, hosting Massachusetts and a home-and-home with Bowling Green would turn out to be a murderers' row?

Penn State:


10 Games
Home: 7
Away: 3
NCAA Teams: 0

Average from last season's Pairwise: 43.16
Marquee Game: Thanksgiving Tournament at Merrimack and UMass Lowell

Early home games, several Atlantic Hockey opponents and trips that don't leave the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. It's what to be expected of Penn State's non-conference schedule given the past few seasons and 2019-20 sticks to the theme.

While Mercyhurst and a Philadelphia neutral site game (PSU played Princeton at Wells Fargo Center in 2018-19 in the rare home-and-neutral site set up) are not on the schedule, Penn State does have a home-and-home with Robert Morris. Home series against Sacred Heart, Alaska and Niagara are also on the docket. After an eight-game homestand to start last season, the Nittany Lions begin 2019-20 with nine straight games at Pegula Arena.

Penn State's lone trip outside PA is part of a new Thanksgiving tournament hosted by Merrimack and UMass Lowell. (RPI is the fourth team.) PSU plays one game against each Hockey East school. It's a schedule that, if history repeats, do not leave Penn State with much room for non-conference losses (only Lowell finished outside the bottom 20 teams last season) or requires help from the rest of the conference.

That said, Penn State's home/road split is similar in line with much of the conference with more home games. The non-conference schedule also looks to be getting tougher in future years as the Nittany Lions should be facing North Dakota in Nashville next season.

Wisconsin:

10 Games
Home: 6
Away: 4
NCAA Teams: 3

Average from last season's Pairwise: 25.33
Marquee Game: Hosting Minnesota Duluth Oct 18-19

Wisconsin ends up being the exception to the rule. The Badgers this season do not play a longtime WCHA team or Upper Peninsula school with one exception, welcoming the two-time defending national champions to Madison for the first time since the 2013 WCHA First Round.

The balance sees Wisconsin go both east and west while hosting teams from the east and west. Opening the season on the road for one game apiece against BC and Merrimack, Tony Granato's team heads to Omaha later in the season.

Overall, the Badgers' schedule is set up to test Wisconsin with three teams (Minnesota Duluth, Clarkson and Arizona State) coming to Kohl Center who finished in the top ten of the 2018-19 Pairwise. It would be easy to think when setting up a few seasons ago that Boston College would not be as low, but both schools bringing in heralded freshmen makes for a good opening-night game. If any non-conference schedule gives Minnesota's a run, it is Wisconsin's.

Last Updated: August 12th 10:30 am ET with Ohio State officially announcing the Buckeyes will play in Las Vegas.

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2 comments:

  1. Notre Dame released their schedule yesterday (6/6).

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    1. Added Notre Dame's schedule and analysis. Thanks for the heads up.

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