Those are unexpected words to open a story. St. Thomas reportedly received an invitation to join the Summit League, which would make the St. Paul school the second Division 1 school in the state of Minnesota. If it happens, the Tommies would require a waiver by the NCAA to move directly from D3 to D1 beginning in the fall of 2021. Normal protocol sees schools moving up one division at a time.
The move has major ramifications for the Summit League as the Tommies, after earlier this year being kicked out of Division 3 MIAC, would give the conference the minimum six teams needed to play football. Fans of teams in the Summit League seem open and happy to UST joining compared to some of the other options.
Sadly, the move would also bring to an end one of the great Catholic rivals between St. Thomas and St. John's/St. Benedict's.
Since this is a place for college hockey discussion, you didn't come here for football takes. You came to answer the big question a splash like this brings to a growing realignment landscape. The one I wrote about earlier this summer. The Tommies currently sponsor 20 sports, including both men's and women's hockey.
Assuming that stays the same, what does St. Thomas going D1 mean for college hockey? Short answer: It's complicated.
What conference would the Tommies play?
Let's start with the men's side. For starters, the timing is everything. The state of Minnesota gets a sixth Division 1 program while bumping up NCAA men's hockey to 61 teams. As spread out as it is, western college hockey could use more teams and St. Thomas helps fit in that mode. The St. Paul location makes UST highly desirable.In addition, Fall 2021 will be a blank slate. The seven departing WCHA schools would officially leave the conference on June 30, 2021. Anything set up would fit the timeline.
Two years earlier, UST would be a perfect fit for the regional, like-minded conference the WCHA schools want. Despite being a D3 school, St. Thomas has a 10,000 student enrollment and a setup closer to a larger regional Catholic school like a Creighton. (It's one of the reasons certain MIAC schools were happy to see the Tommies go.) Out east, several schools like St. Thomas exist as D1 programs. There are some concerns with rink size, but as the Alaska schools have proven, the WCHA would have been okay.
Now, the WCHA would be three teams by the time the Tommies go D1. Even if UST and independent Arizona State join forces to form a conference that makes the Great West look tiny, it leaves the group one team short of an automatic bid.
The two big options are, 1) Join some or all of the seven departing schools in a brand new conference, and 2) Join the NCHC alongside another school. Each has pros and cons.
Joining the soon-to-be-former WCHA teams
The simplest option would be adding St. Thomas and getting an eighth team joining in the conference to be named later.
However, a major question mark holding up realignment talk has been the fate of the departing seven. It's no guarantee all of them form a conference together. Minnesota State and Bemidji State would be happier with more schools around them while the others are happy to have a conference built around the Great Lakes.
Until that domino drops, it's difficult to say where it goes for St. Thomas. A split would require each conference to have six teams. (i.e. The three Upper Peninsula schools and now-three Minnesota schools in one with FSU, Bowling Green and a few Great Lakes schools between the NCHC and Atlantic Hockey. There's always forgotten Huntsville as well.) The key here is that UST gives the Minnesota schools another regional ally in any potential conference.
Being the 9th or 10th NCHC team
Joining the NCHC seems far fetched given that the conference continues to say it is not open to expansion beyond eight teams, but there would be some like-minded teams for St. Thomas.
The Summit League, like every Division 1 conference not named the Big Ten, does not sponsor men's hockey. UST would be joining hockey schools Denver, Omaha, and North Dakota - all of whom play in the NCHC.
Minnesota State previously made overtures to wanting to join the NCHC to be the tenth team if Arizona State joined. The Mavericks would have another in St. Thomas if location remains a selling point.
Right now, being five miles down the road from the Frozen Faceoff would be the only selling point for a Division 1 St. Thomas (more on this later). If it wasn't enough for Minnesota State, it's difficult to think a brand new St. Thomas program would be treated any differently than one of the top programs over the past 5 seasons.
There are six Minnesota teams. Does this mean all can create a conference together, get an automatic bid and be college hockey how, I the Minnesota fan, says it should be?
Where does the St. Thomas women's team fit?
Thankfully, this one is far easier. The WCHA would take a Division 1 UST in a heartbeat.
Western college hockey needing more teams goes triple on the women's side, where only eight Division 1 teams exist west of the Ohio/Pennsylvania border.
Seven sit in the WCHA, which needs an eighth member after North Dakota shut down its women's hockey program in 2016. St. Thomas makes it eight. Honestly, the Tommies couldn't be a better fit. The school sits in the middle of the WCHA and isn't more than a five-hour drive for any conference team except Ohio State.
UST becoming the newest Division 1 women's hockey program wouldn't solve every issue. Western teams still struggle setting up non-conference games since every other school outside the WCHA school besides Lindenwood needs to travel 1000 miles. More schools need to join (Northern Michigan continues to look at whether it's feasible as Michigan remains without a D1 women's team) or restart programs (*cough* *cough* North Dakota). It adds to a crowded Minnesota recruiting landscape as well, which seems like a perfect segue to...
How does St. Thomas stack up against the rest of Divison 1?
On paper, it's easy to point out where St. Thomas fits. There's still a ton of work which needs to happen to get up to speed in D1 hockey, though.
As much of a strength as it is for the Tommies to be in the home of a place that sends more players to D1 hockey than every other state, there remains a lot of competition. UST would need to beat out Minnesota, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Minnesota Duluth, St. Cloud State, Bemidji State and others. All of those schools have bigger D1 histories and much better facilities.
St. Thomas' facilities is another reason that makes it difficult to see the NCHC picking up the Tommies without massive upgrades. Like Arizona State, the Tommies play in an arena not up to western Division 1 standards. St. Thomas Ice Arena, besides being off-campus in suburban Mendota Heights, has a capacity of 1400. Before this season, the lowest WCHA school had a capacity of 2500. Colorado College's new rink is looking to be just a shade under 4000. Even among the other WCHA schools, the Tommies would be near the bottom and more fitting of Atlantic Hockey.
Unfortunately, there's not a spot for UST to build an expensive new rink on campus or a good mid-sized rink in the Twin Cities that the program could use. The Wild's practice facility down Summit Avenue is a smaller capacity than St. Thomas Ice Arena.
A successful St. Thomas hockey program could serve as a cheaper alternative for those in the Twin Cities wanting to watch D1 hockey but not pay the high prices at Mariucci. (This is already the case with the successful football program.) UST averaged below 200 people per game last season although with higher-profile opponents and players that number would be higher. The Tommies made the D3 NCAA Tournament eight times for the men's team and the women's team is coming off a Frozen Four berth and appearances in five of the past six NCAA Tournaments. As ASU and Penn State both showed, new programs can make noise.
What are the takeaways from the move?
While it's a good day for Division 1 hockey if St. Thomas joins the ranks, the move to D1 has more to do with the Summit League and football. That cannot be overstated. Hockey is a side effect.
At the same time, I'd be remiss to say that UST would not be an important and game-changing addition out West. Getting a program like a St. Thomas to add Division 1 hockey makes a huge difference in an era where the schools looking to join are in the Power 5. Maybe this gives an incentive for an Oakland University to find a way? Michigan and the Great Lake teams could use another school. Either way, it's a huge deal for Minnesota.
St. Thomas already has its football games broadcast on WCCO radio and a large alumni network not afraid to spend money on athletics. Add the location, along with being surrounded by like-minded teams and there are reasons to think the Tommies can make some noise despite being in the same metro as the 800 lb Gopher.
It's no guarantee, much like where UST would end up - a lot remains up in the air.
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