Bracketology: 2021 NCAA Tournament Men's Hockey Bracket Version 1.0

 It is finally time for the main event. Well, version 1.0 of the main event.

After taking a step back and working to figure out what the committee may have in mind, let's dive in and have some bracketology fun with the men's hockey bracket. 

Heck, I will even save showing my work until the bottom. 

The Bracket Version 1.0

Fargo Regional

1. North Dakota vs. 4. AIC

2. Minnesota Duluth vs. 3. Michigan 

Bridgeport Regional

1. Boston College vs. 4. Clarkson

2. Massachusetts vs. 3. Quinnipiac

Loveland Regional

1. Minnesota vs. 4. Bowling Green

2. Wisconsin vs. 3. Omaha

Albany Regional

1. Minnesota State vs. 4. Providence

2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Boston University

How Did We Get Here?

Some subjectivity, some following the committee, and some going out on a limb making predictions.

To make my bracket, I used the applicable parts of a normal year to create seeds and rankings. With little crossover play, I ranked the teams inside each conference against one another first and went from there. Other rules followed include host teams must play at the host regional and avoiding inter-conference first-round matchups.

One caveat: Since no team can earn an automatic bid before conference tournaments end, this bracketology assumes the eligible team* with the highest overall winning percentage in each of the six conferences earns the automatic bid. Those teams are: AIC (Atlantic Hockey), Minnesota (Big Ten), Quinnipiac (ECAC), Boston College (Hockey East), North Dakota (NCHC), and Minnesota State (WCHA).

*Eligible teams must have played 13 games

So here are my (subjective) seeding bands:

No. 1 seeds: North Dakota, Boston College, Minnesota State, Minnesota

No. 2 seeds: Wisconsin, St. Cloud State, Massachusetts, Minnesota Duluth

No. 3 seeds: Michigan, Boston University, Quinnipiac, Omaha

No. 4 seeds: Providence, Bowling Green, Clarkson, AIC

With the seeds in place, the next step automatically places host institutions of each regional there if any made the field. Only North Dakota did, which places the Fighting Hawks in the Fargo Regional. (Other active hosts that can be placed if the teams make the NCAA Tournament besides North Dakota are Denver for Loveland, and Sacred Heart for Bridgeport.) 

After that, the next step fills the bracket to avoid inter-conference first-round matchups. No. 1 seeds must play No. 4 seeds and No. 2 seeds must play No. 3 seeds. On a (subjectively) straight 1-16, 2-15, etc. bracket, Minnesota State-Bowling Green and Massachusetts-Boston University would be inter-conference match-ups. It's easy to switch those around with Bowling Green now facing Minnesota and BU now facing St. Cloud State. It does mean Minnesota State now faces Providence again, but hey at least it's not in Providence!

The biggest questions with this bracket and my subjective rankings deal with six of the eight No. 1 and No. 2 seeds being from the west. The bracket is top-heavy to the point where all five of the teams who could drive to Fargo are in the top-eight. Two western teams must fly eastward in addition to every team heading to Loveland.

North Dakota is locked into Fargo, meaning Minnesota State and Minnesota both will fly to regionals. A flight is a flight. With Boston College placed in nearby Bridgeport, there is no difference for both between Albany and Loveland. Placing Minnesota State's group in Albany saves two flights for BU and Providence compared to all eight teams needing to fly if Minnesota was placed in Albany. Therefore, it's easiest to place the Mavericks in Albany and the Gophers in Loveland. 

Nuts and bolts:

Teams By conference: 

4- Hockey East, NCHC
3- Big Ten
2- ECAC, WCHA
1- Atlantic Hockey

Bubble: Omaha, Providence, Bowling Green, Clarkson, AIC
First four out: UConn, Bemidji State, Notre Dame, Michigan Tech
Next four out: Northeastern, Penn State, Army West Point, Lake Superior State

Have any questions? Agree with the bracket? Disagree? Wondering why a team is in/out or where to send those pitchforks and torches for making you remember Minnesota State-Providence? Leave it in the comments.

Related: 

Bracketology 101: Five More Selection Questions + NCAA Tournament Locks & Bubble Teams
Bracketology 101: How Many Teams From Each Conference Make The Men's NCAA Hockey Tournament?

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2021 Bracketology 101: Five More Selection Questions + NCAA Tournament Locks & Bubble Teams (Men's Hockey)

In the last bracketology post, I wrote about how many teams from each conference could make the men's 2021 NCAA Hockey Tournament. 

It's a good starting point to understand what the selection committee will be sifting through to decide the 16 teams. For this post, I want to build upon it and answer a few more bracketology questions to better get some clarity in a season full of unknowns.

With this year's tournament featuring subjectivity for the first time in decades, the unknown element shines through. It will be interesting to see whether this year is a one-off driven by necessity or influences future selection criteria. Even without using subjectivity, there are some decisions that could make their way back into the Pairwise. Before the season, there were already formula changes from using three-on-three OT. 

That might be a question for another day, though. So instead, here are five more men's hockey bracketology questions that focus on this year's NCAA Tournament.

1) Where will the human element play a role?

One of the biggest unknowns - one that will not be answered until Selection Sunday - is where exactly the line will be drawn with subjectivity. All six conferences will be represented on the committee, but that does not mean there will be disappointment. Someone will be left out who believes they were among the top 16 teams in the country. Following where and why that happens will be important to understand.

2) Do the polls reflect or influence where teams will be seeded?

In regular years, college hockey polls do not matter for the NCAA Tournament. It is all about the Pairwise.

This is no ordinary season, however. The weekly polls, which give a current snapshot of national perception and water cooler talk, take on more of an importance. It is very easy to be influenced by voter rankings and let confirmation bias take over. 

Still, the current snapshot gives a biased look. Voters see a conference or part of a country more than others. History shapes opinion. Recent performance plays a bigger role in ranking, even though the Pairwise treats each game the same. Is that possible to do so, or will how teams finish down the stretch be shown in the seeds and teams selected? Will the committee share the same opinions as the voters?

Coincidentally, in regular years, there is a point of the season where the polls start to reflect the Pairwise rankings.

3) Looking at regionals, how much does location and limiting travel play into selections? Does past history play a role?

Smack-dab in the middle, this might be the most interesting question for the committee. 

If any year features a reason to limit travel and flights, 2021 would be the one. Besides saving money, keeping teams close to home and saving cross-country travel makes a ton of sense in a global pandemic. (Teams fly if a region is more than 400 miles away.) Past history has been brought up as a guide on how to select teams, but it could easily be a year where the most important selection aspect is location.

One region - Loveland, CO - will require at least three, if not four flights depending on Denver. Fargo, ND features a half-dozen teams within the 400 mile cutoff, while either Albany, NY or Bridgeport, CT should be close enough for any Eastern team to drive.

A few contending teams - Omaha, Wisconsin, and Michigan - are more than 400 miles from all four regions and would fly regardless. If there is a year where it makes sense to split East (AHA, ECAC, Hockey East) and West (Big Ten, NCHC, WCHA) 8-8, this would be the one. Doing so would be a boon to Atlantic Hockey and ECAC, despite the latter losing eight teams, and a detriment to WCHA and Big Ten getting another team.

4) What are the most interesting races to follow?

Much can and will change between now and Selection Sunday, but the most interesting races involve teams within their own conferences. 

WCHA: Whether or not Minnesota State wins the final WCHA conference tournament, a second WCHA team should emerge as a contender. Bowling Green appeared to be it before a 3-6-1 stretch brought the Falcons back to the pack. Bemidji State has the best record against the Mavericks, however, the Beavers currently sit in sixth place. Lake Superior State is in the mix while Michigan Tech has been the hottest team since February 1st, but is 2-8-1 against Minnesota State, Bowling Green, Bemidji State and Lake Superior State this season. 

Atlantic Hockey: Can Army, Robert Morris or Canisius overtake AIC? Does AIC get in as an at-large?

ECAC: Do Quinnipiac and/or Clarkson represent the conference?

5) Who are the No. 1 seeds and locks for the NCAA Tournament?

Watch out, it's time for some subjectivity. 

Right now, I would be surprised if North Dakota - locked into Fargo - and Boston College do not take No. 1 seeds. Consensus has them as, at worst, two of the top three teams in country. After that, there are a half-dozen teams fighting for two spots.

One spot seems open for the winner of the Big Ten - Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Michigan - assuming that team goes through the others. Minnesota State can make a claim now to being one of the four best teams in the country. Winning the WCHA conference tournament should lead to the Mavericks being the No. 1 seed. Both Boston University and Massachusetts can make arguments as well despite both needing to pause their seasons at various times. If the committee wants to limit travel, having a second No. 1 seed in the East would help. 

How the No. 1 seed split - whether it is 3/1 West or 2/2 - is an underrated story to watch. There are good arguments for both. No matter what happens, at the end of the day, there will be an elite team with the unfortunate reward of being the No. 2 seed in Fargo.

As for locks, here is a list of eight teams that, outside of Covid-19, would be an absolute shock to not be in the NCAA Tournament: Boston College, North Dakota, Minnesota State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, St. Cloud State, Minnesota Duluth. 

Several more just miss the list and would be close to locks, but it's 2021 and things are crazy.

Up next: An actual bracket!

Related: Bracketology 101 - How Many Teams From Each Conference Make The Men's NCAA Tournament?

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2021 Bracketology 101: How Many Teams From Each Conference Make The Men's NCAA Hockey Tournament?

In these uncertain times that is the 2020-21 NCAA hockey season, bracketology requires an unknown subjectivity. 

It's not so cut-and-paste. The Pairwise formula, long the staple of deciding who gets in and whose bubble gets burst, will not be used for the 2021 NCAA Tournament. Limited non-conference games due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic take away its usefulness. For the first time in a long time, teams will be compared to one another by the eye test.

Hello, old, smoky backrooms.

Being a bracketologist the past few seasons, this year's NCAA Tournament selection fascinates me. It's less about structured rules or putting teams in the best locations to limit travel and more about answering what the Pairwise tries to do each season. Everything is subjective in 2020-21 college hockey, including ties.

So for this season, rather than dive in and place teams where I think they would best fit, it makes sense to first take a step back. I need to put on another bracketologist hat. I need to get in the mind of the selection committee. I need to be able to answer some major methodology questions in order to get to the fun, flashy picks.

Let's start with the big one: How many teams from each conference make the 16-team men's hockey NCAA Tournament?

In past years, the selection criteria made this easy to answer. Non-conference games gave a clear ranking between teams in different conferences. The 10 best at-large teams in the Pairwise rankings made the Tourney, no matter the conference.

There are still 10 at-large bids to go with the six automatic ones for conference tournament winners. (Yes, even the ECAC, with only four teams contesting this season, keeps an automatic bid.) With few non-conference games and no Pairwise to use as criteria, however, picking teams from each conference requires a closer look.

It remains easy to rank teams in the same conference to one another. Ranking conferences? Not so much. 

The Selection Committee seems to be aware of this issue, with NCAA men's hockey ice chair Mike Kemp telling USCHO's Jim Connolly that it plans on using the traditional criteria for ranking teams in-conference to one another and be subjective for the number of teams.

If Pairwise was used this season, the lack of comparisons would mean the NCHC, as of this writing, would be on track for one, maybe two bids. (Not coincidentally, NCHC Commissioner Josh Fenton, for a good self-serving reason, has been out front to use more historical data to choose teams.) Even taking away Fenton's idea, any person watching NCAA Hockey this season would agree the conference deserves more than one at-large bid.

With only in-conference play to compare and some eye test subjectivity, let's start by ranking the minimum and maximum bids each conference should and could get.

Atlantic Hockey: Comparisons might be a little tricky. Split between eastern and western pods, AHA had an unbalanced schedule. For example, AIC, winning the regular season for an unprecedented third straight year, did not play Robert Morris (14-7-0) nor Canisius (8-5-0). Neither did Army West Point (13-5-1).

Historically, Atlantic Hockey has never only once had two teams in the NCAA Tournament. Only twice did a team finish high enough to be an at-large. While this would be a year where going off the Pairwise would benefit AHA, it's not being used. Most likely, the lone bid goes to the winner of Atlantic Hockey conference tournament. There might be a question of wheher AIC, at 13-3-0 could get an at-large bid without winning the AHA autobid, however, two of those losses being non-conference losses to Quinnipiac gives the committee a point of comparison. 

Minimum: 1
Maximum: 2

Big Ten: Barring a couple series lost due to teams paused for Covid, the Big Ten will play a true round-robin schedule. On one hand, it gives a true look of how each team fares against one another. On the other hand, there are reasons for why teams end up where they are, such as Wisconsin and Michigan losing top players to the World Juniors for large stretches during the first half.

Entering the final weekend of play, there is a gap at the top. Minnesota (19-5-0) and Wisconsin (17-8-1) can both win the regular season title. Michigan (13-8-1), the only team to defeat the Badgers since the end of January, has at times been in the same tier. Mel Pearson's team gets another chance for a signature win, facing the Gophers this weekend. Notre Dame and Penn State - who face each other this weekend - sit in the next tier below Michigan. 

Historically, the Big Ten has struggled to get more than three schools in the NCAA Tournament. With enough of a look at how the teams play, the committee will have to decide through the lack of non-conference games where the top. It's likely the Big Ten gets at least two teams (Minnesota and Wisconsin) regardless. After that, decisions need to be made.

Minimum: 2

Maximum: 4

ECAC: With only four teams participating and more non-conference games than anyone else, this season features a much different ECAC than normal. Quinnipiac has shown itself to be the class of the conference, losing once in its last 14 games after a slow start. If anyone gets an at-large bid, it's QU. Even then, the Bobcats' resume features quality wins with some tough losses to Bowling Green (twice), St. Lawrence, and a 2-2-2 record against Clarkson (the only other ECAC team above .500) that does not make it a guarantee.

Minimum: 1

Maximum: 2

Independent: College hockey's two independents - Arizona State and Long Island University - took different paths to the same result. ASU joined up with the seven Big Ten schools, going on a season-long Midwestern roadtrip. LIU, meanwhile, just ended its inaugural season with a schedule mostly against nearby Atlantic Hockey schools. 

Both independents will end 2020-21 below .500 and therefore miss the NCAA Tournament, ending a two-year run for the Sun Devils (currently 6-15-3 and not participating in the Big Ten tournament). Still, the Sharks deserve kudos for finishing 3-10-0 after not existing this time last year.

Hockey East: Taking away the argument whether or not it makes sense to play sports in a global pandemic, few things better summed up this season than Hockey East going to week-to-week schedules. If nearby teams (eastern version) can play one another? Great. Heck, Maine spent the entire season on the road.

The end result is an incomplete system of comparisons and a season without a regular season champion. In fact, Hockey East already did the dirty work, creating a power index (HEPI) to rank teams. It's the closest anyone is getting to some Pairwise numbers among conferences.

Of the HEPI, the current top-3 have a good argument to be among the teams chosen. Boston College and UMass have been among the top teams national polls all season. BU, who started late and just hit the 13-game minimum required to be NCAA Tournament eligible, went 3-1-0 against those two teams. Then there's Providence, UConn and Northeastern, all of whom are in the next tier and possibly making final cases to be on the right side of the bubble. 

Minimum: 3

Maximum: 5

 

NCHC: Home to the past four national champions, the NCHC season featured both a first-half pod in Omaha and a second-half of travel to nearby teams (western version). Entering the final weekend of regular season play, North Dakota (18-4-1) won its second straight Penrose Cup, followed by St. Cloud State (14-9-0) and Minnesota Duluth (13-8-2) playing one another for second place.

Omaha (13-9-1) sits in fourth while Denver (9-12-1) and Western Michigan (10-11-3), both just under .500, are in a spot where each team has a resume of quality wins against the top-3 mixed with bad losses. Without any non-conference competition, these will be a test for a committee.

Minimum: 3

Maximum: 5

WCHA: Minnesota State became the first team to win four straight MacNaughton Cups with a 16-3-1 season. The Mavericks can rest easy about being in the NCAA Tournament in a few weeks, but that it's a battle for the rest of the conference. Four teams - Bemidji State, Bowling Green, Lake Superior State, and Michigan Tech - find themselves in the next tier behind Minnesota State yet with resumes that could use an extra win or two.

Minimum: 1

Maximum: 3

In recent seasons, the conference has gotten two teams in the NCAA Tournament. The WCHA can make more arguments for the committee and it might need to in a few weeks. To me, this is the most interesting race down the stretch - something I'll get into in the next bracketology blog.

Thanks for reading.

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College Hockey is Back (or) A Sense of Normalcy

At 7:08 pm ET Friday, roughly three hours after Alaska Anchorage announced it would not compete, Notre Dame's Jake Pivonka won the opening faceoff of the 2020-21 season.

College hockey was back after 250 days away.

It's fitting Notre Dame, one of the final teams to play in a pandemic-shortened season, and opponent Wisconsin were first with the puck. Facing the Badgers, Compton Family Ice Arena had two of the rare teams who saw their seasons end on the ice.

Each had some sense of normalcy finishing their season days before the Ivy League decided to cancel the rest of theirs, followed by several others and eventually the NCAA. Both got some afterward.

And for two hours inside a 200x90 feet ice sheet, watching the Fighting Irish and Wisconsin face off on national television actually felt normal. A pair of new starting goalies. The return of Cole Caufield. A talented Badgers team trying to end years of underperforming against a perennially disciplined Notre Dame.

November aside, for two hours the Fighting Irish and Wisconsin were figuring out what works without a preseason. The offenses were not quite up to speed, but the Badgers, wearing a "21" patch to honor the late Rob Andringa, were able to pull off a five forward power play unit. Both goaltenders made some solid saves.

At 9:12 pm ET, the game ended. Any sense of normalcy went away with it. If anything, it only existed inside the boards at Compton Family Ice Arena.

Watching on NBCSN, there was nothing normal seeing Tony Granato and Jeff Jackson wearing masks, or being without a band and thousands of fans in South Bend. Same goes with what players needed to do to get to this point. Months of not skating. Individual workouts. Small practices. 

Paused workouts, as was the case for Wisconsin in September due to COVID-19 issues on campus. 

So it was no surprise the day of college hockey's first game was also college hockey's first postponed game. Long Island University's first in program history was moved after an outbreak at opponent Army. The same day where normalcy was celebrated also saw Alaska Anchorage announce it was joining seven other schools in not playing this season, essentially ending the Seawolves program.

Balancing the two is difficult but needed this season. The story of college hockey in 2020-21 will be the crazy and unpredictable. It's impossible to talk about a game without talking about the games not being played.

(Sometimes the crazy and unpredictable also happens on the ice, such as a day later when Michigan and Arizona State kicked off eight months of rust with a first-year showcase for the Wolverines rookies.)

Eight months and 250+ days later not much has changed from March. COVID cases are going up again.  Most teams continue to figure out their seasons being played, going on wondering how many opportunities will end on the ice. 

Once again, the Ivy League canceled its season before several others joined. RIT and RPI threw in the towel. (As of this writing, the ECAC has five teams playing.) Vermont is pausing winter sports prior to Hockey East opening play, as is the St. Cloud State women's hockey team after a number of positive cases. The third Monday in November canceled the Beanpot.

Games were played this weekend, but seasons were also canceled. That's the sense of normalcy which exists at the moment.

A prevailing thought back in March which sticks with me today is that if it feels like we overreacted to the pandemic, then it's a sign we did things right. 

Eight months later it does not come close. Even worse, the Ivy League making the same decision in November as March cannot be seen in any context as an overreaction. The time for it has long passed. 

As nice as it is to spend two hours feeling normal watching college hockey back, and writing about college hockey, it will be a different season. When the only sense of normalcy happens on a sheet of ice with months of precautions and leadups, that can no longer be considered the normal thing.

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In These Uncertain Times...

I'd like to be in the middle of 2020's "60 Teams. 60 Days. 600 Words (or Less)." Today would be Minnesota's special day, discussing the historic 100th season of Gopher hockey and how Bob Motzko's young team continues evolving into a contender. I'd like to be working my way through all 61 Division 1 men's hockey teams scheduled to play in 2020.

Unfortunately, I'm not. Writing 2020 previews would be a fool's errand to a half-stocked grocery store. So much has changed. So much will change. So many "what ifs" will continue to happen. 

No easy answers exist "in these uncertain times," a phrase frequently uttered these days in emails and television commercials. Everyone sits around to wait and see. Right now, exactly one month away from the official start of the 2020-21 men's hockey season, starting on time seems light years away.

These days what happens in between events are more interesting than the events themselves. 

In these uncertain times, normal is anything but. Teams slowly announcing rookie classes for games that are TBD. Games being taken off schedules. Schedules being discussed as to how to fit in an unknown start date. Dates being discussed - Thanksgiving to New Year's in a bubble, New Year's Day onward - as how to safely play a college hockey season. 

And that's just for what is currently happening. Normal is not taking the season happening as a given.

BLOG: Alaska Anchorage dropping men's hockey + Top 5 Seawolves Memories

Amidst an offseason full of surprises, Wednesday's news of a program dropping ended up being not among the top-five. 

Honestly, it's sad. 

Alaska Anchorage announcing Wednesday it will drop men's hockey, along with three other sports (women's gymnastics along with men's and women's skiing) following the 2020-21 season does not come as a surprise. The Seawolves are swimming upstream with multiple obstacles in the way of its future.

Small gloom and doom events trickled out over years of struggles. The oil industry changing. The University of Alaska system spending much of the previous offseason working on a slashed budget. The WCHA men's league disappearing as we know it. Forced independence.

One would be a stumbling block. Add in a move from Sullivan Arena to the much smaller Wells Fargo Center and it's tough to say anyone should be surprised. College hockey's evolution made it so paying for teams to come to Alaska, something UAA did when it joined the WCHA in 1993, and still able to turn a profit does not work anymore with like-minded teams. 

It speaks volumes when bigger schools are happier to go to Alaska for the extra two games and added profits than the ones who make up a conference with the Seawolves. 

On Long Island University, New Programs & Jumping Off The Cliff

Long Island University, in the longest of long shots, pulled off becoming NCAA Division 1 men's hockey's 61st program.

Any person who had the Sharks adding to its college hockey portfolio prior to Thursday's late afternoon announcement should go play the lottery. (The school, which rebranded in 2019, just finished its first season of D1 women's hockey in where the program won the NEWHA conference tournament.) No one mentioned the school as a contender despite Long Island being home to one of the largest recruiting areas, alongside Chicago and California, without a program. Few, if any, in college hockey circles heard rumblings.

In a world where programs spend decades inching towards starting up, LIU jumped off the cliff.