In the last bracketology post, I wrote about how many teams from each conference could make the men's 2021 NCAA Hockey Tournament.
It's a good starting point to understand what the selection committee will be sifting through to decide the 16 teams. For this post, I want to build upon it and answer a few more bracketology questions to better get some clarity in a season full of unknowns.
With this year's tournament featuring subjectivity for the first time in decades, the unknown element shines through. It will be interesting to see whether this year is a one-off driven by necessity or influences future selection criteria. Even without using subjectivity, there are some decisions that could make their way back into the Pairwise. Before the season, there were already formula changes from using three-on-three OT.
That might be a question for another day, though. So instead, here are five more men's hockey bracketology questions that focus on this year's NCAA Tournament.
1) Where will the human element play a role?
One of the biggest unknowns - one that will not be answered until Selection Sunday - is where exactly the line will be drawn with subjectivity. All six conferences will be represented on the committee, but that does not mean there will be disappointment. Someone will be left out who believes they were among the top 16 teams in the country. Following where and why that happens will be important to understand.
2) Do the polls reflect or influence where teams will be seeded?
In regular years, college hockey polls do not matter for the NCAA Tournament. It is all about the Pairwise.
This is no ordinary season, however. The weekly polls, which give a current snapshot of national perception and water cooler talk, take on more of an importance. It is very easy to be influenced by voter rankings and let confirmation bias take over.
Still, the current snapshot gives a biased look. Voters see a conference or part of a country more than others. History shapes opinion. Recent performance plays a bigger role in ranking, even though the Pairwise treats each game the same. Is that possible to do so, or will how teams finish down the stretch be shown in the seeds and teams selected? Will the committee share the same opinions as the voters?
Coincidentally, in regular years, there is a point of the season where the polls start to reflect the Pairwise rankings.
3) Looking at regionals, how much does location and limiting travel play into selections? Does past history play a role?
Smack-dab in the middle, this might be the most interesting question for the committee.
If any year features a reason to limit travel and flights, 2021 would be the one. Besides saving money, keeping teams close to home and saving cross-country travel makes a ton of sense in a global pandemic. (Teams fly if a region is more than 400 miles away.) Past history has been brought up as a guide on how to select teams, but it could easily be a year where the most important selection aspect is location.
One region - Loveland, CO - will require at least three, if not four flights depending on Denver. Fargo, ND features a half-dozen teams within the 400 mile cutoff, while either Albany, NY or Bridgeport, CT should be close enough for any Eastern team to drive.
A few contending teams - Omaha, Wisconsin, and Michigan - are more than 400 miles from all four regions and would fly regardless. If there is a year where it makes sense to split East (AHA, ECAC, Hockey East) and West (Big Ten, NCHC, WCHA) 8-8, this would be the one. Doing so would be a boon to Atlantic Hockey and ECAC, despite the latter losing eight teams, and a detriment to WCHA and Big Ten getting another team.
4) What are the most interesting races to follow?
Much can and will change between now and Selection Sunday, but the most interesting races involve teams within their own conferences.
WCHA: Whether or not Minnesota State wins the final WCHA conference tournament, a second WCHA team should emerge as a contender. Bowling Green appeared to be it before a 3-6-1 stretch brought the Falcons back to the pack. Bemidji State has the best record against the Mavericks, however, the Beavers currently sit in sixth place. Lake Superior State is in the mix while Michigan Tech has been the hottest team since February 1st, but is 2-8-1 against Minnesota State, Bowling Green, Bemidji State and Lake Superior State this season.
Atlantic Hockey: Can Army, Robert Morris or Canisius overtake AIC? Does AIC get in as an at-large?
ECAC: Do Quinnipiac and/or Clarkson represent the conference?
5) Who are the No. 1 seeds and locks for the NCAA Tournament?
Watch out, it's time for some subjectivity.
Right now, I would be surprised if North Dakota - locked into Fargo - and Boston College do not take No. 1 seeds. Consensus has them as, at worst, two of the top three teams in country. After that, there are a half-dozen teams fighting for two spots.
One spot seems open for the winner of the Big Ten - Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Michigan - assuming that team goes through the others. Minnesota State can make a claim now to being one of the four best teams in the country. Winning the WCHA conference tournament should lead to the Mavericks being the No. 1 seed. Both Boston University and Massachusetts can make arguments as well despite both needing to pause their seasons at various times. If the committee wants to limit travel, having a second No. 1 seed in the East would help.
How the No. 1 seed split - whether it is 3/1 West or 2/2 - is an underrated story to watch. There are good arguments for both. No matter what happens, at the end of the day, there will be an elite team with the unfortunate reward of being the No. 2 seed in Fargo.
As for locks, here is a list of eight teams that, outside of Covid-19, would be an absolute shock to not be in the NCAA Tournament: Boston College, North Dakota, Minnesota State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, St. Cloud State, Minnesota Duluth.
Several more just miss the list and would be close to locks, but it's 2021 and things are crazy.
Up next: An actual bracket!
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