Time flies. It seems like yesterday that the season began, and yet Selection Sunday is this Sunday (March 7) at 9 pm ET. Only a few conference tournament games separate the eight best women's hockey teams from NCAA Tournament berths.
All four automatic bids will be handed out this weekend. The CHA kicks off its tournament later today with all six teams participating. Hockey East is already in the midst of its tournament, as Wednesday's semifinal victories lead Northeastern and Providence against one another in Saturday's championship. Meanwhile, both the ECAC and WCHA Final Faceoff feature four teams vying for an automatic bid.
As expected when playing limited non-conference games during a pandemic, selecting the eight teams will be more subjective than normal. The Pairwise is not an option, leaving an open-ended comparison for the four at-large bids and seeding. The human element will come into play.
Here are the various criteria the selection committee will be using, according to the pre-championship manual:
- Win/Loss Record
- Strength of Schedule
- Head-to-Head Results (When Available)
- Results vs. Common Opponents
- Quality Wins
- Home/Away Weighing
- Eligibility and Availability of Student-Athletes
Using this guide, here are five selection questions to better understand and make sense of the process.
1) How does a lack of non-conference games decide seedings?
One positive of the entire NCAA Tournament being played in a single site is that it takes away any need to create quarterfinal matchups to save money and flights. Thankfully there will be no 2-5 game, which happened recently with western teams. It will be easy to make a WCHA-ECAC quarterfinal matchup, for example.
2) Do limited opponents help or harm selections? Is it a self-fulfilling cycle?
Going further, regular-season games have been as intriguing as I can remember. Numerous top-10 battles happen each weekend as schedules are limited. Clarkson and Colgate faced each other 10 times this season. Minnesota, Ohio State and Wisconsin focused on playing one another (and Minnesota Duluth) over a round-robin WCHA schedule.
On one hand, it is easy to compare and set a hierarchy of teams when each plays several games against one another. Few seasons have been as helpful as this one.
On the other hand, I'm not sure. It ends up being a self-fulfilling cycle where the best teams are the best teams because they solely play each other. Strong strength of schedule aside, figuring out where Clarkson, who survived the highs and lows of the Colgate series before being swept by St. Lawrence, should fit is a challenge in and of itself. The same for Minnesota and Minnesota Duluth, who have losing records against Ohio State and Wisconsin. There is no easier way to compare teams within conferences yet also teams should not be punished for having unique seasons.
Of course, this is also taking out the human element of making sure late-season collapses and getting hot at the right time are not given more importance.
3) Is Penn State an at-large bid if the Nittany Lions do not win the CHA Tournament?
The reason for the question lies with Penn State completing a remarkable turnaround, finishing 16-2-2 and winning the CHA regular season for the first time in program history. It is by far the best record of any champion since the conference received an automatic bid in 2014-15. The Nittany Lions are ranked seventh in the current USCHO.com poll, but is it enough for an at-large bid?
Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 8 teams in 2005, the CHA has never had more than one team represent the conference. (Since the automatic bid, no CHA team has won an NCAA Tournament game.) Robert Morris missed with a 21-8-4 record in 2017-18 and Mercyhurst missed with a 23-9-3 record in 2014-15. Penn State would not be the first CHA team historically to miss out, however, in a year where PSU (and everyone) did not play any teams outside the conference, the committee will have to decide whether that helps or hurts the Nittany Lions.
Recently, St. Anselm used an outstanding season almost exclusively against fellow D-II teams to work its way into the Pairwise mix, but there was enough of a resume against D-III schools to not select the team. That is not the case with Penn State, however, I am not sure historically where the season leaves the Nittany Lions.
To be safe, any team on the NCAA Tournament bubble should be major Penn State fans this weekend.
4) Who currently is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament?
In an unusual year, the number of spots up for grabs is more than ever. Only a few teams can be considered locks entering the final weekend of the season.
Besides the top three teams Northeastern, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, no one can be considered an NCAA Tournament lock. Some teams are in better shape than others. Several this weekend still control their own destiny. However, scenarios exist where the rest can be on the outside looking in depending on how the rest of the weekend goes.
5) Who is on the bubble? Where do those teams stand entering the weekend?
By conference:
CHA: Penn State, which was previously discussed. The other five teams need to earn an automatic bid.
ECAC: Both Colgate and Clarkson are on the bubble, fitting after a never-ending series that saw the Red Raiders go 5-4-1. The Golden Knights' hopes dropped elsewhere after being swept in three straight games by St. Lawrence, dropping Clarkson below .500 and needing to win the tournament to stay above. Colgate, meanwhile, sits a little prettier. It would likely take an upset ECAC loss and upsets in other conferences. The ECAC will get one team in with the automatic bid, but whether a second joins could depend on other factors.
Hockey East: Of any team on the bubble, Boston College may be in the most difficult spot. There is nothing for the Eagles to do but sit and wait. Providence advanced to Saturday's final with a 1-0 overtime win over Maine. A win over Northeastern gives the Friars an automatic bid and likely the spot BC would hold without upsets.
WCHA: No conference has ever gotten four teams in the NCAA Tournament, but could this be the year? Minnesota and Minnesota Duluth. Comparing numbers in-conference, the Gophers have the edge on the Bulldogs (along with sweeping UMD in Duluth in the only head-to-head series between the two). Barring something crazy happening, the Gophers should extend its NCAA Tournament streak. Both schools have a last chance to make an impression in the WCHA Final Faceoff (UMD faces Ohio State and Minnesota plays Wisconsin) and for UMD to try and jump Minnesota as the third WCHA team.
It is safe to say that the WCHA will get at least three teams in the NCAA Tournament. The selection committee will have to make decisions on whether a fourth WCHA team over a third Hockey East school or a second ECAC/CHA team. How that happens will be interesting to follow.
It should be noted that the NEWHA, not playing a full season and without an automatic bid until next season at the earliest, is currently holding a competition between the two teams competing: Long Island University and Sacred Heart.
Up Next: A bracket just in time for weekend games to blow things up.
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