Enough parity exists in the NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament where at least one No. 4 seed has upset a No. 1 seed in every tournament played since 2005. The unexpected is more than expected. It is no surprise, in an era where the final at-large bid has won three of the last seven national titles, to see any of the 16 teams reach the Frozen Four.
Makes bracket challenges fun and impossible, even before playing in a global pandemic.
So with that in mind, I thought it would be best to preview the 2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament by showcasing two non-pandemic extremes. First, why each team can win the national championship. Second, why each team will be upset and lose in round 1. Add three players to watch and a "chip on their shoulders" ranking (1 being none and 10 being wanting to prove the world wrong) and there's a preview that covers the bases for your bracket challenge.
Yesterday (Wednesday) featured the Fargo regional. Today already featured the Bridgeport regional while tomorrow (Friday) showcases the Loveland regional.
NOTE: This post was written before the NCAA announced Notre Dame would be unable to play in the NCAA Tournament due to Covid protocols. Boston College automatically advances to the Albany Regional Final. The Fighting Irish are the second team that earned the right to participate yet are unable to play. ND originally got into the NCAA Tournament only because St. Lawrence had to withdraw.
With this year's tournament being played in these uncertain times, a team being pulled due to Covid protocols was likely a possibility. I am leaving in Notre Dame's section to show how the team would do if healthy and able to participate. I did update Boston College's "why the Eagles will be upset" section, however.
Albany Regional
No. 1 Seed: Boston College
Why the Eagles will win it all: A theme exists among the top four teams where each college hockey blueblood returns to the NCAA Tournament as a national title contender after missing multiple tourneys.
Boston College (17-5-1) sits atop the Albany Regional after being the top Hockey East team all season. The talented Eagles team did not miss a beat despite losing star sophomore forward Alex Newhook, who has 7 goals in his last 10 games, for a large portion of the season. Another star sophomore forward, Matt Boldy, leads the team with 30 points (10G-20) in 21 games. Only North Dakota averages more goals per game than BC (3.91). Boston College's scoring depth goes beyond its elite players with 8 having 15 or more points.
Of the four bluebloods, Spencer Knight stands out individually in goal. Knight, who helped lead USA Hockey to a 2021 WJC gold medal, has championship-level experience. The sophomore enters the NCAA Tournament with a .933% save percentage and three shutouts. Teams need good goaltending and defense to advance in the NCAA Tournament. Boston College can bring both, along with a plethora of elite players.
Why the Eagles will be upset in round 1 the regional final: Boston College features talent while its potential opponents, St. Cloud State or Boston University, each feature a more recent NCAA Tournament experience.
The Huskies have been a mainstay in the NCAA Tournament of late while BU seniors were on the Terriers team that upset No. 1 seed Cornell in 2018. It's been five years since the Eagles last made the NCAA Tournament, making this experience a new one.
At the same time, Boston College comes into the regional final rested but coming off a performance where the Eagles blew a 4-1 third period lead to UMass-Lowell, eventually losing in 2 OT. (Boston College did have a potential game-winning goal disallowed for offsides.) The game leaves a bad taste in the mouth and it will be interesting to see how BC responds. Sometimes. teams respond this time of year. Oftentimes, teams follow up with another disappointment.
Chip on their shoulder ranking: 2. Things are going well for the Eagles. Almost too well. On a team that features several future NHLers and is seeded second overall, the biggest chip on their shoulder might be from this low ranking.
Three Players To Watch: #12 F- Matt Boldy (MIN), #4 D- Drew Helleson (COL), #18 F- Alex Newhook (COL)
No. 2 Seed: St. Cloud State
Why the Huskies will win it all: St. Cloud State (17-10-0) has been at its best in the NCAA Tournament when expectations are lowered. For the first time in four appearances, the Huskies are not one of the top-two overall teams.
This year's St. Cloud State squad is plenty dangerous. The Huskies finished second in a tough NCHC regular season, finished second in the NCHC conference tournament, and went 7-5-0 against the conference's three NCAA Tournament teams. Two of those losses came in OT. No one should be surprised to see the Huskies return to the Frozen Four in Pittsburgh. Easton Brodzinski continues his high level of play, leading the team with 11 goals. Freshman Veeti Miettinen rightfully earned the NCHC Rookie of the Year award for his play. When the offense is going, St. Cloud State is a tough team to face, regularly putting up 4-5 goals a game.
David Hrenak is the most experienced goaltender in the Albany Regional, showing throughout his college career he can steal games. If he is able to find a way to do so, or the Huskies offense stays in gear, it would not be a surprise to see this St. Cloud State team end the year with a win.
Why the Huskies will be upset in round 1: Do I have to write this one? Fine. Apologies in advance, SCSU fans.
Facing Boston University, St. Cloud State goes against a Terriers team with players to match its offensive talent and one of the top defenders. It won't be an easy game even if the Huskies are able to test BU goalie Drew Commesso.
And then there's the elephant in the room. To not beat around the bush any longer, better St. Cloud State teams have been upset. In the last five years, AIC, Air Force and Ferris State all defeated Huskies teams in the opening round. This year's senior class was there for the first two. This is a different group, one that will get the chance to have its Virginia moment, but in this category ends up being relevant.
Chip on their shoulder ranking: 9. At least I hope it's a 9. At this point, if it's not a 9 after discussing the last section and the Huskies coming up short in both the regular season and conference tournament, something is wrong.
Three Players To Watch: #29 F- Veeti Miettinen (TOR), #19 F- Sam Hentges (MIN), #22 F- Easton Brodzinski (undrafted)
No. 3 Seed: Boston University
Why the Terriers will win it all: Boston University (10-4-1) has been a bit of an unknown this season in a season full of them.
Multiple Covid pauses pushing BU's season debut to January, the Terriers enter the NCAA Tournament playing a total of 15 games. The late start did not hinder Boston University's results, with its talented group starting 9-2-0 and sweeping Massachusetts. Jay O'Brien, the rare first-round draft pick who transferred, made the most of his long wait, tying David Farrance for the team lead with 16 points.
Speaking of Farrance, the senior defender earned his second Hobey Baker top-ten finalist nod despite only playing 10 games. When on the ice, Farrance makes Boston University a better team. Being healthy as the team has been recently, the Terriers are full of talent able to make noise in a single-elimination tournament like this one.
Why the Terriers will lose in round 1: The Terriers benefit from being a bit of an unknown and playing a smaller schedule. Playing a smaller schedule hides some of the issues Boston University faced during the season while comfortably sitting in an NCAA Tournament spot as the third-ranked Hockey East team.
No tournament team has as poor of a shot margin (-7.47 shots per game) as BU. In recent games, being consistently outshot came back to bite the Terriers, as Merrimack and UMass Lowell each defeated Boston University handily while outshooting BU. The Terriers face a Huskies group that can easily follow the footprint set by Hockey East teams and make a tough night for Boston University's defense; especially if the Lowell loss looms large to the Terriers.
Chip on their shoulder ranking: 6. The Terriers are getting overlooked. Whether it is teams in BU's conference, city, selection tier, or being one 5 Eastern teams, there is enough for Boston University players to work with to use a "nobody believes in us" mantra. It's not as much as others, with the Terriers returning for the first time in 3 seasons and would have been on the outside last year too, but teams have made work with worse.
Three Players To Watch: #4 D- David Farrance (NSH), #29 G- Drew Commesso (CHI), #11 F- Luke Tuch (MTL)
No. 4 Seed: Notre Dame
(Again, please note that the Fighting Irish will be unable to play due to Covid protocols and that I wrote this before the news was announced.)
Why the Fighting Irish will win would have won it all: Being the last team in the NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament is not a bad thing. Tell that to Yale (2013), Providence (2015), or a team Notre Dame knows all too well, Minnesota Duluth (2018).
In the 2021 tournament, Notre Dame (14-13-2) is the latest last team in that has what it takes to join the above list of national champions. The Fighting Irish can compete with top teams, sweeping Minnesota and Michigan each at home. Away from Compton Family Ice Arena, Jeff Jackson's team is 9-2-1. The law firm-sounding line of Slaggert (Graham), Slaggert (Landon) and Steeves (Alex) has been the Fighting Irish's best. All three sit atop ND's stat sheet. Spencer Stastney at times can be a magician on the blue line, making big-time plays on both sides of the ice.
When playing well, Notre Dame is one of the best teams in the nation. It's why in a single-elimination tournament where two big weekends can make larger difference than a .500 season, no one should be surprised to see the last at-large bid, one who got in because St. Lawrence dropped out, end the season as the last team standing.
Why the Fighting Irish will lose would have lost in round 1: For all the big wins, Notre Dame should be able to celebrate several more. ND is a paltry 9-5-1 this season when scoring the first goal. That total includes losing an early 2-0 lead against Penn State in the Big Ten conference tournament quarterfinal, the last game Notre Dame played before this weekend.
While this year's Notre Dame team keeps Jeff Jackson's defensive mantra, it's been a different group after three seasons of Cale Morris in net. Dylan St. Cyr is making the most of his time being the Fighting Irish goaltender, holding down a .921% save percentage in 22 games played and 3 shutouts. St. Cyr has been able to steal a game or two when needed, but it's a big difference than having the stability of Morris going against Boston College.
Chip on their shoulder rankings: 4. No team is playing with house money quite like Notre Dame after the way the Fighting Irish entered the NCAA Tournament. Still, the team can find some chips on their shoulder based on the number of people who had the Big Ten pegged at three teams or didn't consider Notre Dame's resume for the bubble teams. (Update: It's now a 10 for next season.)
Three Players To Watch: #16 F- Alex Steeves (undrafted), #24 D- Spencer Stastney (NSH), #19 F- Landon Slaggert (CHI)
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