Two conference tournaments finished Tuesday night, meaning the first two tickets to the 2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament have been digitally scanned.
Longtime friends Minnesota and North Dakota held hands and walked into the NCAA Tournament together, earning the Big Ten and NCHC conference tournament titles, respectively. The Gophers won three games in three days, defeating Michigan State and Michigan in OT before holding on to defeat Wisconsin. The Fighting Hawks held off a Denver upset, winning in OT before a third-period barrage of goals against St. Cloud State earned UND its first Penrose Cup NCHC Conference Tournament Trophy.
Both schools automatically advance. Four more automatic bids are up for grabs Saturday night.
So, of course, it's time to update the bracket four days from Selection Sunday.
If you need a refresher on what subjective criteria the NCAA Tournament selection committee will use to choose the 16 teams, click here. Otherwise, the work showing how and why follows below.
The Bracket Version 3.0
1. North Dakota vs. 4. Army
2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Bemidji State
Bridgeport Regional
1. Boston College vs. 4. AIC
2. Quinnipiac vs. 3. Boston University
Loveland Regional
1. Minnesota vs. 4. Omaha
2. Wisconsin vs. 3. Minnesota Duluth
Albany Regional
1. Minnesota State vs. 4. Providence
2. Massachusetts vs. 3. Michigan
One caveat: No team can earn an automatic bid before conference tournaments end. For the ones still ongoing, this bracketology assumes the highest remaining seed earns the automatic bid. Those teams are AIC (Atlantic Hockey), Quinnipiac (ECAC), Boston College (Hockey East), and Minnesota State (WCHA). Each is marked in italics. Minnesota and North Dakota are marked in bold as each earned its conference automatic bid.
One change from Version 2.5 is that the NCAA came out with its pre-championship manual. Gone this year is the requirement that teams be at or above .500. The biggest beneficiaries of this change are Denver, whose case picks up more steam as a fourth or fifth NCHC team after previously being left out of my bracket, and UConn, who finished below .500 but would fit in the fourth or fifth Hockey East spot.
How Did We Get Here?
Rankings and attempting to limit travel create multiple regionals where the top two seeds hail from the same conference.
To make my bracket, I used the applicable parts of a normal year to create seeds and rankings. With little crossover play, I ranked the teams inside each conference against one another first and went from there to rank each conference spot. Other rules followed include host teams must play at the host regional and avoiding inter-conference first-round matchups. Even though it is a completely different selection committee, I also took a few of the lessons from the NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament selections (hello win/loss percentage) for creating the bracket.
So here are my (subjective) seeding bands:
No. 1 seeds: North Dakota, Boston College, Minnesota, Minnesota State
No. 2 seeds: Wisconsin, St. Cloud State, Massachusetts, Quinnipiac
No. 3 seeds: Michigan, Minnesota Duluth, Boston University, Bemidji State
No. 4 seeds: Omaha, Providence, AIC, Army
From there, the next step with the seeds in place automatically places host institutions in each regional if any made the field. Only North Dakota did, which places the Fighting Hawks in the Fargo Regional. (Other active hosts that can be placed if the teams make the NCAA Tournament besides North Dakota are Denver for Loveland and Sacred Heart for Bridgeport.)
After that, the next step fills the bracket to avoid inter-conference first-round matchups. No. 1 seeds must play No. 4 seeds and No. 2 seeds must play No. 3 seeds. On a (subjectively) straight 1-16, 2-15, etc. bracket, there are no inter-conference matchups.
However, it would also create a bracket with 12 flights. A 1-16, 2-15, etc. bracket with North Dakota in Fargo, BC in Bridgeport, Minnesota in Loveland, and Minnesota State in Albany would shape out to this:
UND-Army, QU-Michigan (3 flights to Fargo)
BC-AIC, UMass-UMD (1 flight to Bridgeport)
MN-PC, SCSU-BU (4 flights to Loveland)
MSU-M-Omaha, UW-BSU (4 flights to Albany)
More eastern teams would be out west than east! Even swapping Minnesota and Minnesota State's regions - as a flight is a flight for both - only drops it to 10.
So let's see if we can make a couple swaps to cut down flights while keeping bracket integrity and avoiding inter-conference matchups. And by a couple, there will be several changes among seeding bands. Buckle up!
To save a flight to Fargo, three teams sit in the No. 2 and No. 3 bands who can drive: St. Cloud State, Minnesota Duluth and Bemidji State. (No No. 4 seed is within driving range.) A single swap between UMD and Michigan would save one flight and keep integrity. Done. UMass now faces Michigan and UMD faces Quinnipiac. Leaving us here:
UND-Army, QU-UMD (2 flights to Fargo)
BC-AIC, UMass-Michigan (1 flight to Bridgeport)
MN-PC, SCSU-BU (4 flights to Loveland)
MSU-M-Omaha, UW-BSU (4 flights to Albany)
Every team needs to fly to Loveland. However, BU would be a drive to Albany if the Terriers swap with Bemidji State. It creates no inter-conference matchups so let's do it. Another flight down. Leaving us here:
UND-Army, QU-UMD (2 flights to Fargo)
BC-AIC, UMass-Michigan (1 flight to Bridgeport)
MN-PC, SCSU-BSU (4 flights to Loveland)
MSU-M-Omaha, UW-BU (3 flights to Albany)
Still 10 flights. Swapping Omaha and Providence saves another flight and puts the closest team to Loveland there. Leaving us:
UND-Army, QU-UMD (2 flights to Fargo)
BC-AIC, UMass-Michigan (1 flight to Bridgeport)
MN-Omaha SCSU-BSU (4 flights to Loveland)
MSU-M-PC, UW-BU (2 flights to Albany)
BC-AIC, UMass-Michigan (1 flight to Bridgeport)
MN-Omaha, QU-UMD (4 flights to Loveland)
MSU-M-PC, UW-BU (2 flights to Albany)
This is a solid bracket and I could stop here. But if we're really limiting travel, one last swap among No. 2 seeds Quinnipiac and Wisconsin saves another flight. Swapping Quinnipiac with UMass would put each in its nearest region.
Seven flights and several regional matchups? There we go.
Couldn't you just put Minnesota in Albany and Minnesota State in Loveland and save five steps? You keep saying a flight is a flight.
The committee could do that. If that happens, the bracket keeps more integrity and looks like this:
UND-Army, QU-UMD (2 flights to Fargo)
BC-AIC, UMass-Michigan (1 flight to Bridgeport)
MN-PC, SCSU-BU (2 flights to Albany)
MSU-M-Omaha, UW-BSU (4 flights to Loveland)
It would be nice to get another team who can drive in Fargo, however, St. Cloud State can't play Minnesota Duluth since both are NCHC teams. But if bracket integrity over limiting travel in a pandemic is your thing, the above bracket makes sense.
What spots are up for grabs?
Entering this weekend, my rankings are:
1. NCHC #1 Team
2. Hockey East #1 Team
3. Big Ten #1 Team
4. WCHA #1 Team
5. Big Ten #2 Team
6. NCHC #2 Team
7. Hockey East #2 Team
8. ECAC #1 Team
9. Big Ten #3 Team
10. NCHC #3 Team
11. Hockey East #3 Team
12. WCHA #2 Team
13. NCHC #4 Team
14. Hockey East #4 Team
15. Atlantic Hockey #1 Team
16. Atlantic Hockey #2 Team
(If you wonder I rank slots by conference versus teams, click here.)
Right now, the top 12 spots + Atlantic Hockey automatic bid are locks, leaving 9-10 conference slots fighting for three spots in the NCAA Tournament. Those slots - a second AHA team, a fourth and/or fifth Big Ten team, a potential second ECAC team if Quinnipiac loses the championship game, a fourth and/or fifth Hockey East team, a fourth and/or fifth NCHC team, and a third WCHA team - will be where the political fights lie.
Right now, I have a fourth NCHC team, a Hockey East team and a second AHA team filling up the spots, giving a 9-7 West/East Split. It all depends on how this weekend's games turn out. It's likely Bemidji State and Lake Superior State are playing for the second WCHA slot. Depending on whether another team on the outside receives an automatic bid would also change things between now and Sunday.
So Minnesota is your top-ranked Big Ten team?
Yep.
What are some other subjective decisions that change?
There are several subjective decisions.
Several teams are making their case to be the second-best WCHA team. Denver, after defeating Omaha shorthanded and coming up just short of North Dakota, believes it is the fourth-best NCHC team. Notre Dame believes it is a tournament team as the fourth-best Big Ten team. UConn still believes it is the fourth-best Hockey East team.
The second WCHA team does not change much, but if you have Lake Superior State or Bowling Green the argument to swap St. Cloud State disappears. They would just play in Loveland.
If you have UConn above Providence even after the Friars dominated in the Hockey East playoffs, it's a straight swap to keep the Huskies east.
If you have Denver over Omaha as the fourth-best NCHC team, the result would be swapping Minnesota and Minnesota State so that the Mavericks play the host Pioneers, who must be placed in Loveland, and Minnesota heads to Albany against Providence.
If you have both Denver and Omaha in to create a 10/6 West-East split...well this is long enough. Give yourself a round of applause for reaching this point.
Nuts and bolts:
Teams By conference:
4- Hockey East
4- NCHC
3- Big Ten
2- WCHA, Atlantic Hockey
1- ECAC
In: Bemidji State, Army
Out: Bowling Green, UConn
Bubble: Bemidji State, Omaha, Providence, AIC, Army
First Four Out: Denver, Notre Dame, Lake Superior State, UConn
Have any questions? Agree with the bracket? Disagree? Wondering why a team is in/out or where to send those pitchforks and torches? Leave it in the comments.
Related:
2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament Bracket Version 2.5
2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament Bracket Version 2.0
2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament Bracket Version 1.0
Bracketology 101: Five More Selection Questions + NCAA Tournament Locks & Bubble Teams
Bracketology 101: How Many Teams From Each Conference Make The Men's NCAA Hockey Tournament?
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Since you posted this, we now have the luxury of adding Wednesday's, Thursday's and most of Friday's results, and there have been some upsets like Mass-Lowell over BC, Canisius over Army and the Northern Michigan shocker over Minnesota State. And St. Lawrence is still alive. So we could get four conference champs that definitely would not make it on an at-large basis.
ReplyDeleteWith all of that, the field you chose on Tuesday looks pretty darn good, except I think Army is now out the running. If the favorites win tonight and Saturday, those last two spots will be tough to figure among Lake Superior, Providence and Bowling Green. I'd pick LS and Providence. I'd be leaving out BG, Army, Notre Dame and Denver.
Does the NCAA put that much emphasis on avoiding flight travel? I sure think bracket integrity should be followed whenever possible. My bracket would involve only one change, moving No. 10 Duluth to Fargo, and No. 9 Michigan to Loveland:
FARGO: No. 1 North Dakota vs. No. 16 Lake Superior; No. 8 Quinnipiac vs. No. 10 Duluth.
LOVELAND: No. 2 Minnesota vs. No. 15 Providence; No. 7 St. Cloud vs. No. 10 Michigan.
ALBANY: No. 3 Minnesota State vs. No. 14 AIC; No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 Boston University
BRIDGEPORT: No. 4 Boston College vs. No. 13 Omaha; No. 5 U-Mass vs. No. 12 Bemidji.
Now watch tonight's and Saturday's results rip this bracket all to heck.