The bracket is out and it is time for a little bracketology postmortem.
Here's the actual bracket:
Fargo:
1. North Dakota vs. 4. AIC
2. Michigan vs. 3. Minnesota Duluth
Albany:
1. Boston College vs. 4. Notre Dame
2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Boston University
Loveland:
1. Minnesota vs. 4. Omaha
2. Minnesota State vs. 3. Quinnipiac
Bridgeport:
1. Wisconsin vs. 4. Bemidji State
2. Massachusetts vs. 3. Lake Superior State
All in all, I am happy with my results considering the circumstances. Taking out St. Lawrence, who sadly announced after posting the final bracket that it would not be appearing in the NCAA Tournament due to a positive Covid case (always a possibility this year), means 14 of the 15 teams appearing on my list made the NCAA Tournament. It would be 15 of 16 taking out St. Lawrence, as my first team out was Bemidji State and I had the Beavers replacing the Saints. The committee did have BSU higher than me, meaning it was an easy call to include Bemidji State and have all five Minnesota men's hockey D1 schools in for the first time in history.
Omaha was in fact the fourth NCHC team. Michigan was in fact the highest of the third teams, earning the last No. 2 seed. Michigan-UMD in Fargo will be happening, and Boston College did end up in Albany instead of Bridgeport due to crowds being allowed in the former. Quinnipiac got in as a No. 3 seed, even before jumping up and taking the ECAC automatic bid. Several other ideas happened, just with different teams.
The only miss was Notre Dame getting in as the fourth Big Ten team instead of the fourth Hockey East team. While I had UMass Lowell getting in over Providence, the selection committee had PC ahead (the Friars are an alternate if any other team withdraws before Monday night) and went with the "neither" option. That was a miss. I was also more positive on the Fighting Irish's chances than most and am not surprised to see ND get in, but at the end of the day, I can't claim to have Notre Dame in my field.
There were also subjective misses in seeding. And I did not expect so much travel or an 11/5 West-East split from the selection committee based on what the committee had been saying pre-tournament.
So let's get into answering the questions. Mike Kemp, the NCAA Tournament selection committee chair, spoke to several outlets and cleared up some of the subjective criteria the committee used to decide the final at-large bids and seeding. You can check that out at both College Hockey News and USCHO.
1. Omaha, Denver, or both?
It was in fact Omaha. The Mavericks' record and performance were enough to get in over Denver having the better head-to-head record and a better resume than its record indicates. Looking at how the bracket turned out, the option for both and five NCHC teams was not a popular one.
2. Bemidji State, Bowling Green, both, or neither?
The Beavers get the nod over Bowling Green. According to Kemp, Bemidji State's better record against Minnesota State and Lake Superior State put the Beavers ahead of the Falcons. BGSU had a slightly better RPI and wins over Quinnipiac, which in a non-subjective year helps its case, but not this time around. That made all the difference in the world. In the end, a third WCHA team this season was ahead of the fourth team in other conferences, but a fourth was below the other conference's fourth team. Bemidji State is slated as the best of the "final three" at-large bids without Quinnipiac.
Credit where it's due to the WCHA fans and writers that correctly had the case for a third WCHA team - something the league has not had since realignment - being stronger than it appeared. I had it lower.
3. Providence, UMass Lowell, UConn, or how does the East/West split go?
So it turns out the answer was "Neither." UMass Lowell was playing for, in hindsight, either Omaha or Boston University's spot with the Hockey East automatic bid. Despite the RiverHawks reaching the conference tournament championship game and losing 1-0, the committee kept Providence as the fourth HE team. However, the Friars' record and other factors that will be discussed later kept PC behind other conferences.
11 Western teams versus 5 Eastern teams is a win for western politicking. Perception has the west as the better side of the country this season, however, perception does not always equal reality. Pre-St. Lawrence news, the split was 10/6 West-East, which is on the high side yet makes more sense than 11/5. When given the chance to replace one eastern team with another, the selection committee chose a western team in Notre Dame. All three of the final at-large spots were western teams.
As much as the final at-large spots are tough decisions, I figured politicking would make the East/West split closer.
4. Can a second team from a conference get a No. 1 seed? Does Minnesota State's loss to Northern Michigan knock the Mavericks out of the top four?
Yes and yes.
This section features several compromises and shows how small decisions change the bracket. The committee was open to ranking a second team from the same conference as a No. 1 seed, as Wisconsin earned the fourth No. 1 seed alongside Big Ten conference mate Minnesota.
Not only that but Massachusetts, the second Hockey East team, was ahead of the top WCHA team, Minnesota State. The Mavericks ended up sixth and head to No. 3 overall seed Minnesota's region, Loveland. If the compromise is a lower top overall seed for Minnesota State and three WCHA teams in the NCAA Tournament overall, it's a good one for the league. The Big Ten gets two No. 1 seeds of the four but the two hardest paths to the Frozen Four.
I also like how the decision of whether Wisconsin or Massachusetts should earn the last No. 1 seed ends up with both teams in the same region. That was something I also had in my bracket (albeit Minnesota State and Wisconsin) and think it's important in this subjective year.
In addition to the two Big Ten teams, North Dakota was named the No. 1 overall seed while Boston College is No. 2 overall. BC being ahead of Minnesota is something I did not have yet completely understand based upon the entire season of work. It was a close call. Either option can be justified while not changing the locale of the two (thanks to Denver being out).
5. Does the committee go with bracket integrity or try and limit travel as much as possible?
Integrity by a landslide.
There were absolutely no attempts to limit travel and flights in a global pandemic. 11 of 16 teams will be flying, including three into Bridgeport. Quinnipiac is playing in Loveland while Lake Superior State goes to Bridgeport, Bemidji State is Bridgeport and AIC in Fargo, and Michigan heads to Fargo while Minnesota State goes to Loveland.
If travel was truly an issue, the number of flights could be cut down by 2-6 while staying in the seeding bands. With North Dakota being the No. 1 overall seed and placed where it would be regardless, and knowing how the rest of the No. 1 seeds are ranked, it's pretty safe to say that the bracket is a straight 1-16, 2-15, etc. ranking. Kemp insinuated as much on the USCHO podcast.
(Obviously, a different selection committee, but I'm going to remember this choice the next time Minnesota/Wisconsin/Minnesota Duluth all have to play one another in the NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament to save a flight or two. Those years where it was a #2 vs. #5 overall look 100x worse now.)
6. How does the committee sort out Michigan/Boston University/Minnesota Duluth?
Michigan, Minnesota Duluth, Boston University in that order.
Selfishly, I am a fan of Michigan and Minnesota Duluth playing one another on the ten-year tournament anniversary of the two meeting for the 2011 NCAA national championship.
7. How badly does Quinnipiac's loss to St. Lawrence hurt the Bobcats? Does it cost QU an at-large bid?
Turns out the committee kept Quinnipiac in the above tier, or just outside, as the Bobcats were slotted right below Boston University.
8. Who gets the last at-large bid?
Notre Dame. Well, Omaha first. Then Notre Dame.
St. Lawrence dropping out slotted in the Fighting Irish, which should be something to watch out for in a tournament filled with enough party where the final at-large bid has won three of the last seven NCAA Tournaments. (Only slightly joking: Road Notre Dame is a tough out.)
The Fighting Irish, and Omaha and Bemidji State before that, were beneficiaries of the committee putting record against teams in the NCAA Tournament ahead of other factors. Notre Dame was 4-7-1 against the other three Big Ten NCAA Tournament teams. Bemidji State was 4-5-2. Omaha, meanwhile, had a 3-6-1 record against the top-three NCHC teams compared to Denver's 2-9-0 record.
Providence had a 1-5-2 record against the three Hockey East NCAA Tournament teams (and the one win came against BU), which dropped the Friars below the "in" crowd.
So what did we learn?
We learned quite a few things.
We learned that the selection committee values wins against top teams more than the Pairwise. There used to be a "Teams Under Consideration" component that played a role in ranking, but it has not appeared in recent years.
We learned limiting travel is overrated.
We learned the WCHA can get in three teams just in time for the CCHA. We learned Hockey East can in three teams just in time for the ECAC to get back all its teams.
We learned the Hockey Gods have a sense of humor with Minnesota Duluth-Michigan, Minnesota State-Quinnipiac, and Boston College-Notre Dame.
We learned gifting teams by part of the country was not something the selection committee wanted to do. When tasked with comparing one another, the region did not matter.
We learned that for all the fears of the Big Ten being such a powerful conference and taking over the sport, it was a big surprise to see the league get everything to go its way. Two of four No. 1 seeds, the last No. 2 seed, and a fourth team for the first time over the fourth team from other conferences. The selection committee certainly thought highly of the Big Ten this season.
And we learned that, while flawed at times, the Pairwise rankings and knowing the criteria in advance are things the college hockey world needs. Maybe with some changes taking the good from this year to improve the flaws, however, it wasn't the worst thing to have a one-year break to better appreciate what we already have.
Thank you everyone for following along with bracketology this year.
No comments:
Post a Comment