Sunday, March 21, 2021

Final Projected Bracket + 8 Questions The Selection Committee Will Answer

Welcome to Selection Sunday for the 2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament. All conference tournament games are done. All championships are awarded. At 7 pm ET on ESPNU, the 16 teams playing will be announced.

St. Lawrence, who entered the weekend with four wins all season and has 24 in the past four seasons, is playing NCAA Tournament hockey. The Saints burst some bubbles with an upset of ECAC regular-season champion Quinnipiac, winning 3-2 in overtime to take home the Whitelaw Cup and the conference's automatic bid.

AIC will represent Atlantic Hockey for a second time after defeating Canisius 3-2. The Yellow Jackets will put its "never lost a first-round game" record on the line.

UMass claims its first-ever Hockey East conference tournament championship with a 1-0 win over UMass Lowell.

Finally, Lake Superior State, the second WCHA school in as many men's hockey tournaments to end a long NCAA Tournament drought, enters its first NCAA Tournament since 1996 with 12 wins in its last 14 games. The Lakers beat Northern Michigan 6-3 thanks to an Ashton Calder hat trick to take the Jeff Sauer Cup as WCHA Conference Tournament champions.

The four join Minnesota (Big Ten) and North Dakota (NCHC) as the six automatic bids.

I am going to switch up the format a little bit, placing the final projected bracket and explanation at the bottom of the blog. As much fun as it can be to discuss where teams go and why they go there, this year's teams and placements put a lot more up in the air. It's important to understand the subjective decisions the NCAA selection committee will be making, along with questions that the selection committee will answer.  

What I am doing is building a foundation for how the committee will select conferences and teams.  My bracket reflects that. It would be a big surprise to not see 13 teams in the NCAA Tournament, leaving nine fighting for the final three at-large bids.

Yet the selection committee has free reign to paint the walls however they want without any math to hold them back. Anyone saying they know how the rooms will turn out is doing nothing besides making assumptions based on precedent and evidence. If the selection committee answers differently than I do - and they could, as several of these are subjective - it will cause an effect in flipping matchups.

These are the questions that will shape the bracket. How the committee answers change everything.

1. Omaha, Denver, or both?

Of all the decisions, this is the one I have been going back and forth on the longest. The NCHC has a good case to get a fourth conference bid among the final spots. Both Omaha and Denver have good cases to earn that bid. It's unlikely, although not impossible, the league gets a fifth and both get in, meaning the decision rests on keeping one team in and one team out.

If you want to see each team's case (along with several other bubble teams), click here.

At the same time, if Denver gets the nod over Omaha, it changes the setup of placing the No. 1 seeds. The Pioneers host the Loveland regional. Rather than placing the second-best Western No. 1 seed there and sending the third-best East, it makes sense to swap those two around.

2. Bemidji State, Bowling Green, both, or neither?

Lake Superior State will join Minnesota State as the WCHA's final men's hockey NCAA Tournament participants before the majority of the conference reforms as a reborn CCHA. Can the WCHA get a third team in? Bemidji State and Bowling Green each have a case for a spot over one another - Bemidji has the quality wins while making the WCHA Conference Semifinal and BGSU is ahead of the Beavers in the Pairwise when comparing the two teams in the same conference. However, it's no guarantee one gets a spot for the other. The league has not gotten three teams in the NCAA Tournament since the last college hockey realignment in 2013.

3. Providence, UMass Lowell, UConn, or how does the East/West split go?

UMass Lowell losing the Hockey East championship game is good news for Providence's chances. The Friars would have needed a fifth Hockey East bid or the committee thinking it deserved to go over Boston University. Instead, the two and technically Connecticut are in contention with one another for a fourth Hockey East spot. Like the NCHC, it's likely one gets the spot and one stays home.

What makes the Hockey East decision interesting also comes with the decision of how many Eastern teams get into the NCAA Tournament. The committee can go anywhere from 8-8 to 12-4 West/East (although both would be quite the extreme). It's likely to land somewhere between 9/7 West/East and 10/6. With the number of eastern teams, how that split goes will determine who gets into the Big Skate. That's a thing, right? No?

4. Can a second team from a conference get a No. 1 seed? Does Minnesota State's loss to Northern Michigan knock the Mavericks out of the top four?

A question I have been debating for much of the last month is how the four No. 1 seeds will be determined. Both Wisconsin and UMass can make arguments for being one of the four best teams in the country. The Badgers won the Big Ten regular-season title and have a 3-2 record against Minnesota. The Minutemen took home the Hockey East conference tournament title and has a 16-5-4 record. However, both are in the position of being the conference's second team. Would the committee place a conference's second team over another conference's top team in a year with limited non-conference play? 

At the same time, where does Minnesota State's 5-1 loss to Northern Michigan leave the Mavericks? Prior there was a solid argument for keeping the team ahead of even Minnesota as the second or third overall seed. It's a tougher argument now yet how much stock should one loss - even if it's a final statement - be taken into account?

5. Does the committee go with bracket integrity or try and limit travel as much as possible?

Another unknown is whether or not bracket integrity or limiting travel will prevail in a pandemic year. The criteria are vague enough where anything can be justified. Will the committee move around pieces to make Fargo a region of teams that can drive, or does that not matter? Or maybe it ends up being a compromise of the two. Either way, I can see it going either way.

6. How does the committee sort out Michigan/Boston University/Minnesota Duluth?

There is a tier of teams that can be safely considered the third-best teams in their respective conferences: Michigan (Big Ten), Boston University (Hockey East), and Minnesota Duluth (NCHC). All three conferences should expect to receive at least three bids. How the committee sorts out these three will go a long way to making the bracket and showing what they thought of each conference's strengths and weaknesses. It would not be a surprise to see one of these teams grab a No. 2 seed and play another one of the group. Which one? I'm not sure.

7. How badly does Quinnipiac's loss to St. Lawrence hurt the Bobcats? Does it cost QU an at-large bid?

Before the Bobcats lost in overtime Saturday, I had Quinnipiac in the above tier, making it four teams. That is no longer the case and it safe to say QU is no longer a safe lock to make the NCAA Tournament. While Quinnipiac's season and location as an Eastern team would favor the Bobcats to get one of the final three spots, it should not come as a surprise if 7 pm ET comes and goes without Quinnipiac hearing its name called. How far down the Bobcats sit if Quinnipiac is in - as a No. 3 or No. 4 seed - will also be something to watch.

At the very least, St. Lawrence's upset win, along with AIC taking the AHA title, brings an end to the possibility of a second Atlantic Hockey team making the NCAA Tournament. Additional eastern bids are coming from either a second ECAC team, or a fourth and/or fifth Hockey East program. Which leads to...

8. Who gets the last at-large bid?

No spot will be contested like the final at-large bid. Several teams and conferences can make a good case for it. There is the third WCHA team, the fourth and/or fifth NCHC/Hockey East schools, the aforementioned Quinnipiac, and Notre Dame as a fourth Big Ten team. 

It's surprising how little attention the Fighting Irish have gotten as a bubble team given the team's record, resume (road sweeps over Michigan and Minnesota), and status regularly being on national TV. Location does not help - Notre Dame is a flight for all four regionals and doesn't quite give an Eastern split (although ND used to play in Hockey East) - but a Big Ten quarterfinal loss to Penn State and not having competition for the fourth spot has kept the Fighting Irish on the side of bubble consideration. 

It should not be the biggest surprise if Notre Dame does get into the NCAA Tournament. Still, all six conferences will be going out of their way to get an extra bid, leaving the possibilities for whose season continues up in the air. The politicking should be fierce.

The Final Bracket

For getting through all eight questions, here's your reward. The final bracket!

If you need a refresher on what subjective criteria the NCAA Tournament selection committee will use to choose the 16 teams, click here. 

Otherwise, the work showing how and why follows below. The six automatic bids are shown in italics.

Fargo Regional
1. North Dakota vs. 4. St. Lawrence
2. Michigan vs. 3. Minnesota Duluth

Loveland Regional
1. Minnesota vs. 4. AIC
2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Lake Superior State

Albany Regional
1. Boston College vs. 4. Omaha
2. Wisconsin vs. 3. Boston University

Bridgeport Regional
1. Minnesota State vs. 4. UMass Lowell
2. UMass vs. 3. Quinnipiac

How Did We Get Here:

Two swaps and some tough selections leave the final projected bracket in a good place.

To make my bracket, I used the applicable parts of a normal year to create seeds and rankings. With little crossover play, I ranked the teams inside each conference against one another first and went from there to rank each conference spot. Other rules followed include host teams must play at the host regional and avoiding inter-conference first-round matchups. Even though it is a completely different selection committee, I also took a few of the lessons from the NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament selections (hello win/loss percentage) for creating the bracket.

So here are my (subjective) seeding bands:

No. 1 seeds: North Dakota, Minnesota, Boston College, Minnesota State

No. 2 seeds: Massachusetts, Wisconsin, St. Cloud State, Michigan

No. 3 seeds: Minnesota Duluth, Boston University, Lake Superior State, Quinnipiac

No. 4 seeds: Omaha, UMass Lowell, AIC, St. Lawrence

For the final three at-large bids, I went with 1) Quinnipiac as a second ECAC team to help make a 9/7 West-East balance, 2) Omaha over Denver as a fourth NCHC bid, and 3) UMass Lowell over Providence and a half-dozen other teams. Apologies to Bemidji State, Notre Dame, Denver, Providence and others for just missing the bracket. 

Michigan earned the top spot in their tier, no Denver means Minnesota heads to Loveland, and I went with a compromise bracket between integrity and travel. Minnesota State gets the final No. 1 seed, however, it comes with the toughest path and in the same regional as the top No. 2 seed (Massachusetts).

From there, the next step with the seeds in place automatically places host institutions in the regional it hosts if any made the field. Only North Dakota did, which places the Fighting Hawks in the Fargo Regional. (Other active hosts that can be placed if the teams make the NCAA Tournament besides North Dakota are Denver for Loveland and Sacred Heart for Bridgeport.) With the other No. 1 seeds, Minnesota goes west to Loveland, Boston College to Albany - mostly because there are fans allowed since the Eagles sit perfectly between the two Eastern Regionals - and Minnesota State goes to Bridgeport.

After that, the next step fills the bracket to avoid inter-conference first-round matchups. No. 1 seeds must play No. 4 seeds and No. 2 seeds must play No. 3 seeds. On a (subjectively) straight 1-16, 2-15, etc. bracket, the only inter-conference matchup was Boston College-UMass Lowell. Swapping the RiverHawks with Omaha solves that issue.

Still, there is a lone swap for travel purposes between Boston University and Lake Superior State. The Lakers must fly anyways, so it makes sense to send the WCHA conference tournament champions west and keep BU East in Albany. St. Cloud State cannot go to Fargo since it would require an inter-conference matchup with Minnesota Duluth.

I like this bracket because it holds true even if the committee decides to put different teams in the final at-large spots. Another Western team such as Bemidji State or Bowling Green to make a 10/6 West-East split takes away the one inter-conference matchup, but the bones remain in place. If Providence is the fourth Hockey East team instead of UMass Lowell, the Friars can be placed in the same spot. If Denver is the fourth NCHC team, Minnesota heads to Bridgeport to protect the No. 2 overall seed. Minnesota State heads to Loveland with two swaps: 1) The Gophers now face Lowell instead of AIC to avoid the all-Hockey East matchup, and 2) Wisconsin-Lake Superior State and UMass-Quinnipiac switch regions with one another to save flights. 

At the end of the day, how the committee answers the eight questions will determine the path. I've answered them one way how I can see the committee choosing. We now wait to see what the group decides.

Nuts and bolts:

Teams By conference: 

4- Hockey East, NCHC
3- Big Ten
2- ECAC, WCHA
1- Atlantic Hockey

In: St. Lawrence, UMass Lowell
Out: Bemidji State, Providence

First Four Out: Bemidji State, Notre Dame, Denver, Providence

Have any questions? Agree with the bracket? Disagree? Wondering why a team is in/out or where to send those pitchforks and torches? Leave it in the comments.

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1 comment:

  1. UnknownMarch 21, 2021 at 1:53 PM

    Makes no sense putting 2 NCHC teams in the same region.

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