Bracketology: 2021 NCAA Tournament Men's Hockey Bracket Version 2.0

Conference tournament season is among us.

Atlantic Hockey began its postseason yesterday. Sadly, Annie Serratore did not help Air Force this time around (although in fairness, things have been downhill since her appearances last season). By this time next week, all six conferences will be underway in one form or another. 

This makes the final bracket of the regular season all the more important as teams get their final chance to make an impression on the selection committee. Selection Sunday, March 21, is one week from this Sunday.

If you need a refresher on what subjective criteria the NCAA Tournament selection committee will use to choose the 16 teams, click here.  

Otherwise, here is the latest projected bracket. The work showing how and why follows below.

The Bracket Version 2.0

Bridgeport Regional:

1. Boston College vs. 4. AIC

2. Massachusetts vs. 3. Quinnipiac

Fargo Regional:

1. North Dakota vs. 4. Bowling Green

2. Michigan vs. 3. Minnesota Duluth

Loveland Regional:

1. Minnesota State vs. 4. Clarkson

2. Wisconsin vs. 3. Omaha

Albany Regional

1. Minnesota vs. 4. UConn

2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Boston University

How Did We Get Here?

Some lessons, some losses, some swaps, and some waiting for conference tournament games to make decisions (hopefully) easier.

To make my bracket, I used the applicable parts of a normal year to create seeds and rankings. With little crossover play, I ranked the teams inside each conference against one another first and went from there. Other rules followed include host teams must play at the host regional and avoiding inter-conference first-round matchups. Even though it is a completely different selection committee, I also took a few of the lessons from this weekend's women's hockey selections (hello win/loss percentage) for creating the bracket.

One caveat: Since no team can earn an automatic bid before conference tournaments end, this bracketology assumes the eligible team* with the highest overall winning percentage in each of the six conferences earns the automatic bid. Those teams are AIC (Atlantic Hockey), Minnesota (Big Ten)**, Quinnipiac (ECAC), Boston College (Hockey East), North Dakota (NCHC), and Minnesota State (WCHA). 

*Eligible teams must have played 13 games
**Please note for the Big Ten that while Wisconsin won the Big Ten regular-season title due to the highest winning percentage in conference games, a non-conference loss to Arizona State puts the Badgers below Minnesota in overall winning percentage.

So here are my (subjective) seeding bands:

No. 1 seeds: Boston College, North Dakota, Minnesota State, Minnesota

No. 2 seeds: Wisconsin, St. Cloud State, Michigan, Massachusetts

No. 3 seeds: Minnesota Duluth, Quinnipiac, Boston University, Omaha

No. 4 seeds: UConn, Clarkson, Bowling Green, AIC

With the seeds in place, the next step automatically places host institutions of each regional there if any made the field. Only North Dakota did, which places the Fighting Hawks in the Fargo Regional. (Other active hosts that can be placed if the teams make the NCAA Tournament besides North Dakota are Denver for Loveland and Sacred Heart for Bridgeport.) 

After that, the next step fills the bracket to avoid inter-conference first-round matchups. No. 1 seeds must play No. 4 seeds and No. 2 seeds must play No. 3 seeds. On a (subjectively) straight 1-16, 2-15, etc. bracket, there are no inter-conference matchups. Hurray!

There are, however, a few swaps that can be made to limit travel. Minnesota Duluth is in Bridgeport and Quinnipiac in Fargo. Swapping both with one another reduces a pair of flights without creating an inter-conference matchup. Let's do that.

It would be great to get BU and Omaha in their respective regions as well. Swapping both with one another would mean an all-NCHC matchup so that is not an option. Putting Minnesota State's quarter of the bracket in Albany, as was the case last week, is another option. A flight is a flight. Every team needs to fly to Loveland and both No. 1 seeds need to fly to Albany. It would save one flight. 

However, if we want to keep Minnesota State in Loveland, swapping the SCSU-BU and Wisconsin-Omaha matchups with one another both save a flight (two if Omaha can drive) and creates original matchups with four teams from four conferences in each region. That seems to be a better option this week, one which does not punish any team more than the other.

On the subject of lessons and locks and locations...

A few subjective seeding decisions pop out, namely Minnesota over Wisconsin as the top-ranked Big Ten team and Bowling Green over Bemidji State/Lake Superior State/Michigan Tech as the second-ranked WCHA team. UConn handily beating Providence and getting to .500 makes that an easier switch, with the two teams and Northeastern all within a game of .500. Arguments exist for all three scenarios, but if I am taking any lessons from the women's hockey selection committee, record matters more than the strength of schedule or head-to-head. 20-6-0 (Minnesota) takes a few steps over 19-8-1 (Wisconsin) despite the Badgers going 3-1-0 against Minnesota. Bowling Green's 19-8-1 holds clear over Bemidji State's 13-8-3. So there you go.

The good news? The next week and a half give plenty of time for teams to prove otherwise.

What changed since Version 1.0?

Since last week, I am confident enough to add three locks: Quinnipiac, a third Big Ten bid/Michigan, and a fourth NCHC bid to the previous list of locks. Spreading at-large bids across conferences makes me more confident that Quinnipiac gets in regardless of the ECAC tournament. It becomes more important for another eastern team to make the NCAA Tournament and the Bobcats are the beneficiary.

I would say the same for Michigan if not for the location. The Wolverines are seeded high enough where even if a Notre Dame or Penn State wins the Big Ten's automatic bid, it would likely mean the conference gets a fourth bid (likely instead of Hockey East's fourth-ranked team or WCHA's second). Splitting with Minnesota this past weekend leaves Michigan, the Gophers, and Wisconsin all have the exact same records against one another.

It's not a case of slotting another team into Michigan's spot and the Wolverines would a better argument than the other two. There is a large gap between the top three Big Ten schools and Notre Dame/Penn State tier. At worst three teams get in from the Big Ten. However, the scenario that took the Gopher women's team out exists for Michigan if the selection committee wants to spread out by location and conference. So while I would be shocked, I am erroring on the side of caution and saying it's the third Big Ten bid that is a lock.

The same can be said about the fourth NCHC bid, where Omaha sits a tier above Denver/Western Michigan. As good and deserving as the Mavericks have been, I find it difficult to see the committee giving a fifth bid to the conference.

How about limiting travel and splitting East/West?

Speaking of spreading out locations and conferences, there is also the matter of whether or not location matters more. My bracket has been under the assumption that bracket integrity matters as much as it can in a subjective season. It also features three Western teams as the four No. 1 seeds and three more as the four No. 2 seeds. 

Obviously, that hurts the goal of limiting travel. A 9/7 West/East spit makes sense given the number of teams in each this season. With limited non-conference crossover, and no Pairwise rankings to adhere to, would the committee go for a straight East/West split as much as possible?

I'm not sure, but it is a possibility that cannot be overlooked. The bracket is subjective. If we want to go further and limit travel while tinkering with bracket integrity, it's possible to have subjective fun. Here's an example of how that might look this week.

Bridgeport Regional:

1. Boston College vs. 4. AIC

2. Quinnipiac vs. 3. Boston University

Fargo Regional:

1. North Dakota vs. 4. Bowling Green

2. Minnesota vs. 3. Minnesota Duluth

Loveland Regional

1. Minnesota State vs. 4. Omaha

2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Michigan

Albany Regional

1. Massachusetts vs. 4. Clarkson

2. Wisconsin vs. 3. UConn

This bracket features six flights instead of seven - the four Loveland teams, Bowling Green and Wisconsin (who both have to fly to all four regionals) - it would be five if Bemidji State was the second WCHA team, which there is a good argument to make.

Obviously, the big winner in this setup would be Massachusetts, which goes from the lowest No. 2 seed to a No. 1 seed by virtue of being the second-highest Eastern team. The Minutemen go to nearby Albany and headline a region that has three nearby schools. In this scenario, Quinnipiac also moves up to a No. 2 seed to give a 5/3 split across and make it as even as possible without encountering an inter-conference matchup.

As for the biggest loser, it's Minnesota and anyone in a stacked Fargo regional. Instead of being the third western No. 1 seed, the Gophers drop to a No. 2 seed. Doing so keeps the top-two Big Ten teams, who are as close to the top as any top-two teams in one conference are, on the same seeding band. That makes sense in a scenario where the location matters. Unfortunately, Minnesota gets placed in North Dakota's home Fargo as the only No. 2 seed that can both drive to the regional and face Minnesota Duluth. (St. Cloud State is in the same conference.) The number of rivalries in this region would be legendary, but a much tougher path for all teams involved.

The Minnesota-UMD scenario would also work for Minnesota State. However, since I put Minnesota as the fourth No. 1 seed in the regular bracket so it makes sense to move the Gophers. Plus I don't think I could force the Mavericks in it after awakening memories by placing Minnesota State in Albany to play No. 4 seed Providence last week.

Nuts and bolts:

Teams By conference: 

4- Hockey East, NCHC
3- Big Ten
2- ECAC, WCHA
1- Atlantic Hockey

In Since Last Week: UConn
Out Since Last Week: Providence

Bubble: Omaha, UConn, Clarkson, Bowling Green, AIC
First four out: Bemidji State, Providence, Notre Dame, Lake Superior State
Next four out: Army West Point, Northeastern, Michigan Tech, Robert Morris

Have any questions? Agree with the bracket? Disagree? Wondering why a team is in/out or where to send those pitchforks and torches? Leave it in the comments.

Related: 

2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament Version 1.0

Bracketology 101: Five More Selection Questions + NCAA Tournament Locks & Bubble Teams

Bracketology 101: How Many Teams From Each Conference Make The Men's NCAA Hockey Tournament?

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