Saturday, March 20, 2021

Bracketology: 2021 NCAA Tournament Men's Hockey Bracket Version 4.0

Upsets and conference tournament surprises leave plenty of questions to be answered on Conference Tournament Championship Saturday.

Four championship games across Atlantic Hockey, ECAC, Hockey East, and WCHA are all that is left to determine who will earn automatic bids to the 2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament. The matchups include: 

Atlantic Hockey: AIC vs. Canisius - the Yellow Jackets, playing its first game since January, scored a pair of third period goals to come back and defeat Niagara 2-1. Canisius did the same, coming back to defeat Army in overtime 4-3. 

ECAC: Quinnipiac vs. St. Lawrence after the Saints defeated Colgate in OT to earn the right to face the Bobcats and earn both the Whitelaw Cup and an automatic bid.

Hockey East: Massachusetts vs UMass Lowell - the seventh-seeded RiverHawks upset Boston College, coming back from a 4-1 third period deficit to win 6-5 in 2OTs. UMass, meanwhile, defeated Providence to put the Friars on the bubble and Massachusetts one step closer to its first-ever Hockey East Conference Tournament championship.

WCHA: Northern Michigan vs. Lake Superior State - the Wildcats took it to top-seeded Minnesota State, scoring five goals in two periods en route to a 5-1 win. Northern Michigan needs the automatic bid to get into the NCAA Tournament. It will try to do so against Lake Superior State, which defeated Bemidji State 4-1 for its 11th win in the last 13 games, in an all-Upper Peninsula final.

How these games go will affect several teams sitting on the bubble.

Until those happen, here is where the bracket sits. If you need a refresher on what subjective criteria the NCAA Tournament selection committee will use to choose the 16 teams, click here. Otherwise, the work showing how and why follows below.

The Bracket Version 4.0:

Fargo Regional
1. North Dakota vs. 4. AIC
2. Quinnipiac vs. 3. Michigan

Albany Regional:
1. Minnesota vs. 4. Providence
2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Boston University

Bridgeport Regional:
1. Boston College vs. 4. Bemidji State
2. Massachusetts vs. 3. Minnesota Duluth

Loveland Regional:
1. Minnesota State vs. 4. Omaha
2. Wisconsin vs. 3. Lake Superior State 

One caveat: No team can earn an automatic bid before conference tournaments end. For the ones still ongoing, this bracketology assumes the highest remaining seed earns the automatic bid. Those teams are AIC (Atlantic Hockey), Quinnipiac (ECAC), Massachusetts (Hockey East), and Lake Superior State (WCHA). Each is marked in italics. Minnesota and North Dakota are marked in bold as each earned its conference automatic bid.

A change from Version 2.5 and earlier involves teams under .500. The NCAA recently came out with its pre-championship manual. Gone this year is the requirement that teams be at or above .500. The biggest beneficiaries of this change are Denver, whose case picks up more steam as a fourth or fifth NCHC team after previously being left out of my bracket due to its record, and UConn, who finished below .500 but can make a case for a fourth or fifth Hockey East spot.

How Did We Get Here?

A little more focus on bracket integrity, a little less focus on saving money on flights.
To make my bracket, I used the applicable parts of a normal year to create seeds and rankings. With little crossover play, I ranked the teams inside each conference against one another first and went from there to rank each conference spot. Other rules followed include host teams must play at the host regional and avoiding inter-conference first-round matchups. Even though it is a completely different selection committee, I also took a few of the lessons from the NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament selections (hello win/loss percentage) for creating the bracket.

So here are my (subjective) seeding bands:

No. 1 seeds: North Dakota, Minnesota, Boston College, Minnesota State

No. 2 seeds: Wisconsin, Massachusetts, St. Cloud State, Quinnipiac

No. 3 seeds: Michigan, Minnesota Duluth, Boston University, Lake Superior State

No. 4 seeds: Omaha, Bemidji State, Providence, AIC


From there, the next step with the seeds in place automatically places host institutions in the regional it hosts if any made the field. Only North Dakota did, which places the Fighting Hawks in the Fargo Regional. (Other active hosts that can be placed if the teams make the NCAA Tournament besides North Dakota are Denver for Loveland and Sacred Heart for Bridgeport.) 

After that, the next step fills the bracket to avoid inter-conference first-round matchups. No. 1 seeds must play No. 4 seeds and No. 2 seeds must play No. 3 seeds. On a (subjectively) straight 1-16, 2-15, etc. bracket, there are two inter-conference matchups: St. Cloud State-Minnesota Duluth and Massachusetts-Boston University. It's simple to swap UMD and BU with one another, avoiding both and keeping bracket integrity.

Looking at this bracket, which has a 10/6 West to East split, and placing Minnesota in Albany instead of Loveland - after all, a flight is a flight for the Gophers - it does a good job spreading out conferences across regionals. The only regionals with two teams from the same conference feature Hockey East schools in Bridgeport and Albany. However, there is no good way to split up further without adding flights and sending the few Eastern teams westward. 

The selection committee could look at this bracket and decide to swap AIC for Bemidji State to save two flights. I would not be surprised to see this happen as it would be the best compromise between flights and bracket integrity. If our goal is bracket integrity and protecting the No. 1 overall seed, it's best to leave things be.

What spots are up for grabs?

Right now, the picture is clearing up although the bottom of the tournament field remains murky.

The last at-large spot or two could go in several directions depending on Saturday's results. The committee has several choices - whether it's an automatic bid taking a place, or deciding between teams and conferences - to make political decisions among 7-8 teams for the final 3-4 spots. It's close enough where I had another team in the NCAA Tournament before Lake Superior State's victory Friday night. 

Here are the ones I am confident: The AHA champion, 3 teams from the Big Ten, 1 team from the ECAC, 3 teams from Hockey East, 3 teams from NCHC and two from the WCHA, for a total of 13 spots. The final three all depend on the committee and Saturday's results.

(If you wonder I rank slots by conference versus teams, click here.)

For the teams on the bubble not playing (looking at you, Providence, Bemidji State, Notre Dame, Omaha and Denver), cheer for the favorites. Especially the ones in your conference if they are playing, along with the location. So congrats Friars fans, you are now all about the Flagship and New Mass for one night. Bemidji and all teams west of the Appalachians are cheering for Lake Superior State. You are all Quinnipiac fans.

Nuts and bolts:

Teams By conference: 

4- Hockey East, NCHC
3- Big Ten, WCHA
1- Atlantic Hockey, ECAC

In: Lake Superior State
Out: Army

Bubble: Lake Superior State, Omaha, Bemidji State, Providence, AIC
First Four Out: Denver, Notre Dame, UMass Lowell, Canisius

Have any questions? Agree with the bracket? Disagree? Wondering why a team is in/out or where to send those pitchforks and torches? Leave it in the comments.

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