Sunday, March 7, 2021

Bracketology: 2021 NCAA Tournament Women's Hockey Final Projected Bracket

Four teams officially scanned their digital tickets to the 2021 NCAA Tournament, hours away from Selection Sunday. 

All games have been played Robert Morris, the CHA's third seed, won its third game in as many days, defeating Syracuse 1-0 to take home the CHA conference tournament championship. The Colonials return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017.

Northeastern, much to the joy of Boston College and bubble teams elsewhere, defeated Providence 6-2 to claim its fourth straight Hockey East conference title Saturday night. The Huskies enter the NCAA Tournament a remarkable 20-1-1 and not lost since its second game of the season. 

Colgate held back a late St. Lawrence attempt Sunday afternoon to send the game to OT to defeat the Saints 3-2. The win leaves the Red Raiders as the ECAC's lone representative by default as the loss drops St. Lawrence below .500, along with Clarkson (and Quinnipiac taking away 6 NEWHA wins against LIU and Sacred Heart).

Ohio State, after scoring six more goals against UMD Saturday than in two games when the two teams played in Duluth, had an opportunity to make a statement and repeat as WCHA Final Faceoff champions facing the Badgers, who defeated Minnesota on Saturday. For a second consecutive year, the Buckeyes and Wisconsin went to overtime to decide a champion. This time, however, it was the Badgers who celebrated an OT championship. Lacey Eden scored 42 seconds in to win Wisconsin's eighth WCHA conference tournament title and break a 2-2-0 tie on the season against Ohio State.

The four teams earning automatic bids are noted with their conferences in parenthesis. If you need a refresher on what subjective criteria the NCAA Tournament selection committee will use to seed the top four and choose the eight teams, click here. Otherwise, here is the final projected bracket.

You can watch the 2021 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament Selection Show at 9 pm ET Sunday, March 7 on NCAA.com

The Bracket:

1. Northeastern (Hockey East) vs. Robert Morris (CHA)

4. Colgate (ECAC) vs. Minnesota


2.  Wisconsin (WCHA) vs. Boston College

3.  Ohio State vs. Minnesota Duluth

(All games played March 15-20 at Erie Insurance Arena in Erie, PA)


How Did We Get Here:

Several teams had opportunities to make arguments for higher seeds or steal automatic bids. In the end, only Colgate and Robert Morris did. The Red Raiders winning the ECAC championship mixed with Minnesota and Minnesota Duluth losing in the WCHA Final Faceoff semifinals gives Colgate the fourth and final seed. 

From there, I avoided inter-conference matchups as much as possible and go with a straight bracket as travel does not matter. One matchup seems locked into the bracket: Northeastern as the No. 1 overall seed, facing Robert Morris. The selection committee has traditionally protected the No. 1 overall seed when possible, and this is a case where it would be easy to do so.

Four WCHA teams making the bracket and protecting the No. 1 overall seed leaves one WCHA inter-conference matchup. For that, I went with the lower of the two WCHA seeded teams to face Minnesota Duluth while the higher goes against Boston College.

Who Was Left Out? Deciding The Final At-Large Bids 

Penn State and Providence, I'm so sorry.

The final at-large bids come down to the selection committee putting in one of the following three choices: A fourth WCHA team, a third Hockey East team, or a second CHA team. It would not be out of the realm of possibility for any of the three to be included when the bracket gets shown Sunday night, however, in my bracket as selection committee I am going with the fourth WCHA team, Minnesota Duluth.

Providence's loss Saturday leaves the Friars 12-7-1 compared to Boston College's 14-5-0. The Friars are hoping the committee gives credence to PC going 2-1 against BC, with the loss happening on the road in OT. As good as Providence has been, the Eagles finished higher in comparison when it comes to statistical rankings (BC was also the only team to beat Northeastern while the Friars went 0-4) and I am keeping Boston College ahead as the second-ranked Hockey East team.

Penn State should be given more credit. As SB Nation College Hockey's Chris Dilks points out, the Nittany Lions have been recruiting well since Jeff Kampersal took over. It has been paying off for PSU. In another season where there are more comparison and non-conference games, I think it's an easier argument for whether or not Penn State makes the NCAA Tournament as an at-large bid. As it is, the CHA's historical and past performances make it difficult to put a second team into my bracket, leaving Penn State the best CHA team to miss.

Instead, Boston College and UMD get the spots. I find it easier to believe a second Hockey East team finds its way in and comparing Minnesota Duluth's resume to Providence and Penn State gives the nod to the Bulldogs.

Why is Minnesota Duluth, who finished ahead in the conference, the fourth WCHA team instead of the Gophers? A mixture of head-to-head and strength of schedule. Minnesota swept the Bulldogs in Duluth when the two teams played in December. The Gophers are undefeated against teams not named Wisconsin and Ohio State while Minnesota Duluth lost to a two-win Bemidji State team. In addition, the Gophers are also higher in the Pairwise and other statistical rankings when comparing WCHA teams. Minnesota's 2-8-1 record against Wisconsin and Ohio State (UMD is 2-3-0 against the two) puts it a distant third, though.

Nuts and Bolts:

Teams By Conference:

4- WCHA
2- Hockey East
1- ECAC, CHA

Last Two Teams In: Boston College, Minnesota Duluth
First Two Teams Out: Penn State, Providence


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