Wednesday, March 3, 2021

Bracketology: 2021 NCAA Tournament Men's Hockey Bracket Version 1.0

 It is finally time for the main event. Well, version 1.0 of the main event.

After taking a step back and working to figure out what the committee may have in mind, let's dive in and have some bracketology fun with the men's hockey bracket. 

Heck, I will even save showing my work until the bottom. 

The Bracket Version 1.0

Fargo Regional

1. North Dakota vs. 4. AIC

2. Minnesota Duluth vs. 3. Michigan 

Bridgeport Regional

1. Boston College vs. 4. Clarkson

2. Massachusetts vs. 3. Quinnipiac

Loveland Regional

1. Minnesota vs. 4. Bowling Green

2. Wisconsin vs. 3. Omaha

Albany Regional

1. Minnesota State vs. 4. Providence

2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Boston University

How Did We Get Here?

Some subjectivity, some following the committee, and some going out on a limb making predictions.

To make my bracket, I used the applicable parts of a normal year to create seeds and rankings. With little crossover play, I ranked the teams inside each conference against one another first and went from there. Other rules followed include host teams must play at the host regional and avoiding inter-conference first-round matchups.

One caveat: Since no team can earn an automatic bid before conference tournaments end, this bracketology assumes the eligible team* with the highest overall winning percentage in each of the six conferences earns the automatic bid. Those teams are: AIC (Atlantic Hockey), Minnesota (Big Ten), Quinnipiac (ECAC), Boston College (Hockey East), North Dakota (NCHC), and Minnesota State (WCHA).

*Eligible teams must have played 13 games


So here are my (subjective) seeding bands:

No. 1 seeds: North Dakota, Boston College, Minnesota State, Minnesota

No. 2 seeds: Wisconsin, St. Cloud State, Massachusetts, Minnesota Duluth

No. 3 seeds: Michigan, Boston University, Quinnipiac, Omaha

No. 4 seeds: Providence, Bowling Green, Clarkson, AIC


With the seeds in place, the next step automatically places host institutions of each regional there if any made the field. Only North Dakota did, which places the Fighting Hawks in the Fargo Regional. (Other active hosts that can be placed if the teams make the NCAA Tournament besides North Dakota are Denver for Loveland, and Sacred Heart for Bridgeport.) 

After that, the next step fills the bracket to avoid inter-conference first-round matchups. No. 1 seeds must play No. 4 seeds and No. 2 seeds must play No. 3 seeds. On a (subjectively) straight 1-16, 2-15, etc. bracket, Minnesota State-Bowling Green and Massachusetts-Boston University would be inter-conference match-ups. It's easy to switch those around with Bowling Green now facing Minnesota and BU now facing St. Cloud State. It does mean Minnesota State now faces Providence again, but hey at least it's not in Providence!

The biggest questions with this bracket and my subjective rankings deal with six of the eight No. 1 and No. 2 seeds being from the west. The bracket is top-heavy to the point where all five of the teams who could drive to Fargo are in the top-eight. Two western teams must fly eastward in addition to every team heading to Loveland.

North Dakota is locked into Fargo, meaning Minnesota State and Minnesota both will fly to regionals. A flight is a flight. With Boston College placed in nearby Bridgeport, there is no difference for both between Albany and Loveland. Placing Minnesota State's group in Albany saves two flights for BU and Providence compared to all eight teams needing to fly if Minnesota was placed in Albany. Therefore, it's easiest to place the Mavericks in Albany and the Gophers in Loveland. 


Nuts and bolts:

Teams By conference: 

4- Hockey East, NCHC
3- Big Ten
2- ECAC, WCHA
1- Atlantic Hockey

Bubble: Omaha, Providence, Bowling Green, Clarkson, AIC
First four out: UConn, Bemidji State, Notre Dame, Michigan Tech
Next four out: Northeastern, Penn State, Army West Point, Lake Superior State

Have any questions? Agree with the bracket? Disagree? Wondering why a team is in/out or where to send those pitchforks and torches for making you remember Minnesota State-Providence? Leave it in the comments.

Related: 

Bracketology 101: Five More Selection Questions + NCAA Tournament Locks & Bubble Teams
Bracketology 101: How Many Teams From Each Conference Make The Men's NCAA Hockey Tournament?

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2 comments:

  1. Is Albany definitely the sub for Manchester?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is. The ECAC, who will be hosting, officially announced the change last week. https://www.ecachockey.com/men/2020-21/News/20210223_-_NCAA_Regional

      Delete