Thursday, March 11, 2021

Bracketology: 2021 NCAA Tournament Men's Hockey Bracket Version 2.5

As expected, nothing comes easy in a season like this one.

Hours after posting bracket version 2.0, Clarkson announced Wednesday night it was ending its season. The Golden Knights leave the NCAA Tournament bubble and ECAC with three conference tournament teams. Quinnipiac's path to an automatic bid involves winning a single game.

It also puts the most recent bracket out of date, as version 2.0 had the Golden Knights in the NCAA Tournament as one of the final at-large bids. This was always a possibility (and remains one for other teams - if there is one lesson to take away from this season, never take any game for granted) and I wish good health to those in the Clarkson program.

But the show must go on. Taking away the Golden Knights, the current bracket looks a little something like this.

The Bracket Version 2.5

Bridgeport Regional:

1. Boston College vs. 4. AIC

2. Massachusetts vs. 3. Quinnipiac

Fargo Regional:

1. North Dakota vs. 4. Bowling Green

2. Michigan vs. 3. Minnesota Duluth

Loveland Regional:

1. Minnesota State vs. 4. Providence

2. Wisconsin vs. 3. Omaha

Albany Regional

1. Minnesota vs. 4. UConn

2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Boston University

If you need a refresher on what subjective criteria the NCAA Tournament selection committee will use to choose the 16 teams, click here.  

One caveat: Since no team can earn an automatic bid before conference tournaments end, this bracketology assumes the eligible team* with the highest overall winning percentage in each of the six conferences earns the automatic bid. Those teams are AIC (Atlantic Hockey), Minnesota (Big Ten)**, Quinnipiac (ECAC), Boston College (Hockey East), North Dakota (NCHC), and Minnesota State (WCHA). 

*Eligible teams must have played 13 games
**Please note for the Big Ten that while Wisconsin won the Big Ten regular-season title due to the highest winning percentage in conference games, a non-conference loss to Arizona State puts the Badgers below Minnesota in overall winning percentage.

How Did We Get Here?

Honestly? Little changes. I took everything from Version 2.0, took out Clarkson, and replaced the second ECAC team with the fifth-ranked Hockey East team (Providence). 

Why a fifth Hockey East team? Right now, it's the default option. Neither of the two remaining ECAC teams is above .500, taking away an easy swap. (Teams receiving at-large bids must be at or above .500.) The other options are a third team from the WCHA, a second AHA team, and the fifth Hockey East team. Losing an ECAC team puts more pressure on the committee to add another Eastern school to keep a 9/7 split. Bemidji State is my first team out, but for the second time this week, Providence - neck-and-neck with UConn - ends up the beneficiary of a political decision.

Who does Clarkson's season ending early benefit? For one, Quinnipiac and the rest of the ECAC. The Bobcats have an easier path to the conference title. More importantly, QU looks to be even more of an NCAA Tournament lock regardless of the ECAC Tournament. If Colgate or St. Lawrence win an automatic bid, it's easy to slot that team in for Clarkson and get two ECAC teams. If Quinnipiac wins, it's just the one.

The decision also benefits eastern schools looking to take the spot. Clarkson's announcement might be the best argument for Atlantic Hockey getting two of its 11 teams in the NCAA Tournament. AIC, Army and Canisius (for Albany only) are within driving range for the two Eastern regionals. (Robert Morris is located slightly over 400 miles from Albany and Bridgeport.) These are teams with well-above .500 records, compared to the multiple Hockey East schools battling at around .500, that were split into two separate pods. Comparing schedules can be difficult and there are limited head-to-head games. If someone other than AIC, who plays tonight for the first time since January, wins the Atlantic Hockey tournament, it might be enough to sell the selection committee on two AHA teams. 

There remains an argument for a third WCHA team - something that has not happened since men's hockey realigned in 2013-14 - as the best team on the outside no matter the region. If so, it would be good news for Bemidji State and Bowling Green. It is a solid one, however, I feel like a 10/6 West-East split might be too much to overcome in a year with limited crossover. A third WCHA team would even out the conferences, compared to a fifth Hockey East school, yet also add to travel headaches and be an unpopular political decision for the eastern schools. That bid might need to come from a potential fourth NCHC bid (which was something I considered a lock yesterday) instead. 

What Would A Bracket To Limit Flights And Split East/West Look Like?

Here's one that only works with a second Atlantic Hockey team, as a fifth Hockey East school creates an unavoidable inter-conference matchup.

Bridgeport Regional:

1. Boston College vs. 4. AIC

2. Quinnipiac vs. 3. Boston University

Fargo Regional:

1. North Dakota vs. 4. Bowling Green

2. Minnesota vs. 3. Minnesota Duluth

Loveland Regional

1. Minnesota State vs. 4. Omaha

2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Michigan

Albany Regional

1. Massachusetts vs. 4. Army

2. Wisconsin vs. 3. UConn

In this scenario, Army, as the second AHA team, takes Clarkson's place in Albany. It features six flights instead of seven from the actual bracket while keeping every team as close to home as possible.

Nuts and bolts:

Teams By conference: 

5- Hockey East
4- NCHC
3- Big Ten
2- WCHA
1- Atlantic Hockey, ECAC

Bubble: Omaha, UConn, Bowling Green, AIC, Providence
First four out: Bemidji State, Army West Point, Notre Dame, Lake Superior State
Next four out: Northeastern, Michigan Tech, Robert Morris, Canisius

Have any questions? Agree with the bracket? Disagree? Wondering why a team is in/out or where to send those pitchforks and torches? Leave it in the comments.

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