If the Stanley Cup semifinals were single-elimination, neither of the two teams playing tonight would be playing tonight.
Both the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning lost Game 1 of their respective semifinals to Vegas and New York Islanders, respectively. The Golden Knights, in losing its third series, advanced that far after losing both Game 1s of the series Vegas won.
In fact, teams winning Game 1 in the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs have only gone on to win eight of the 14 best-of-seven series.
The stat jumps out for someone who covers college hockey and its annual tradition making vast generalizations from a single postseason game. Single-elimination can tell a different story compared to the best-of-seven series. More games allow a fuller picture to be painted. Anything can happen in a single game, which makes the NCAA postseason its own unique beast.
Neither is better or worse. They're just different.
Still, it's fun to compare how Stanley Cup contenders look in the single-elimination context. In one game, Washington was able to come from behind and upset Boston in overtime. Over five games, the Bruins pulled off a pair of overtime wins en route to a dominating series win.
Colorado, one of the teams who looked as dominant in its round 1 series win as it did in Game 1, wishes it could skate by on Game 1 of its series with the Golden Knights. The Avalanche would bask in Game 1 perception. Instead, Vegas, who previously would've been the victim of a 1-0 upset loss to Minnesota in a single-elimination world, flipped the script after being dominated 7-1 in Game 1, winning in six games.
Single-elimination misses out on the unfolding and changing, the comeback, the greater resiliency with the story within the story. Best-of-seven series miss out on the importance of preparing for a single, unknown opponent, the highest of highs, the lowest of lows, all compressed into a single evening - Game 7 notwithstanding.
Comparing the two is the difference between a single strike and a battle of attrition.
The story changes with Montreal winning Game 1 against Toronto after John Taveres gets injured versus Montreal winning in seven games, overcoming a 3-1 deficit and multiple blown third-period leads to winning in overtime.
Single-elimination means the added stakes of four straight playoff OT games between two teams, such as what happened in the Nashville-Carolina series, never happens. Then again, the best-of-seven series miss out on the all-important, all out five OT classic, which Minnesota Duluth and North Dakota know the stakes all too well.
Both have their moments. However, like the games and series themselves, it's foolish to make comparisons or hold one in higher regard as much as the list of top college hockey teams who ran into a hot goalie or had an off night continues to grow.
I wonder how top college hockey teams would fare playing best-of-seven series, whether it would be similar to single-elimination or new dynasties would arise. I wonder how NHL teams would look playing single-elimination - the last champion to win all four Game 1s was Chicago in 2013. Tampa lost two Game 1s in 2020, including the Stanley Cup Final. So did St. Louis in 2019. Washington lost three of its four Game 1s while winning the 2018 Stanley Cup.
Just as the best regular-season teams end up not always being the best postseason teams, the best series teams end up not being the best single-elimination teams.
(Then again, Tampa goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy having four straight elimination shutouts is some Hunter Shepard or Filip Lindberg-style feat.)
At the end of the day, single-elimination hockey adds to the unpredictability and entertainment. Any of the teams can win and it's difficult to make vast generalizations off 60 minutes. Heck, it's difficult making vast generalizations off a best-of-seven game series too. Not that it will stop us from doing either.
It would be one thing if Montreal and Tampa faced off in a single, championship game like UMass and St. Cloud State. Instead, I will enjoy watching tonight and seeing where it leaves us and whether the team that loses can go on to win.
With the end result of the best-of-seven series leaving us with a final that features the No. 3 seed from the Central Division versus the No. 4 seed from the North Division that was the last team to make the postseason, this year's NHL championship would fit perfectly well with college hockey's postseason stories.
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