Thursday, July 22, 2021

2021 NHL Draft: Owen Power & Matty Beniers Returning To Michigan Would Continue A College Hockey Trend

The likely number one overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft might return to college next season rather than turn pro. He's not alone. So could another potential top-three pick. 

Both Owen Power and Matty Beniers mentioned in the lead-up to Friday's first round that they are leaning to coming back to Michigan for their sophomore seasons. Besides being a major boost to the Wolverines, whose 2020-21 season ended without getting a chance to participate in the NCAA Tournament due to Covid protocols, the decisions would be the first in over a decade.

No top-three selection went on to play college hockey after being drafted since James van Riemsdyk (2nd overall in 2007) spent two seasons with New Hampshire. Two haven't occurred simultaneously since van Riemsdyk and Kyle Turris (3rd overall in 2007) were both in college for the 2007-08 season. The number one overall pick last played in the NCAA in 2006 when Erik Johnson suited up for Minnesota's blue line.

Add in Jonathan Toews' North Dakota tenure and the mid-late 2000s may be a sign of where things may be heading once again in 2021.

Of course, there is no guarantee Power, Beniers, or both, return to Ann Arbor. It is easy to say so before the draft. Doing it afterward is another thing. Teenagers making soft commitments to NCAA hockey programs is nothing new.

The mid-to-late 2000s featured soft commits regularly. In these cases, players looking to choose their CHL destination would verbally commit to a school in order to gain draft leverage. In effect, the hockey world would know they only wanted to go to one team, who would then "take a chance" with a later pick than the player would slot otherwise. 

It was not just major junior, however. Players drafted by NHL teams would also all of a sudden post-draft be persuaded to bail on NCAA commitments and go the CHL route. Between the late 2000s and early 2010s, the number of college-affiliated players drafted by an NHL team versus the number who stayed on campus usually ended up varying between June and September.

Still, Power and Beniers' leaning towards Michigan feels more like an endorsement of college hockey's developmental path than aimless posturing or a bluff to NHL teams. 

The trend of deciding on one extra year of college seasoning is picking up steam. Credit can't go to one player, as several stand out in recent years. 

Two of the three most recent Hobey Baker winners, Cole Caufield and Cale Makar, were sophomores who returned despite being NHL first-round picks. (Even the third, Scott Perunovich, came back to UMD when he could have easily signed with St. Louis after winning a national championship.) Makar (4th overall in 2017) became the first top-10 pick to stay two years after his draft selection since van Riemsdyk and looks to be outshining several top 2017 picks who turned pro after one.

Reigning Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox, who topped Makar for the honor, stayed three years at Harvard before winning in his second NHL season. Caufield, meanwhile, found another gear at Wisconsin and became the scoring threat he was at the USNTDP in NCAA (along with being a 200-foot threat on the ice) before seamlessly being a Stanley Cup playoff difference-maker for the Montreal Canadiens. 

Even on Michigan, top defenders have stayed a second season between Zach Werenski (8th overall) Quinn Hughes (6th overall), and Cam York (14th overall).

Power and Beniers each have several other reasons to return to Mel Pearson's team besides development and getting a quality education. The way last season ended. Not getting a chance to live a normal college year.  College sports opening up to Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rights - there is money in being a big fish in an NCAA hockey pond and far more exposure than even 5-10 years ago.

Taking away the last reason, which could be its own essay adding to the trend, the argument for further developing in college by staying an extra year remains compelling. Look at the results. Caufield was one of five collegians picked between 12 and 16 in the 2019 NHL Draft (Matt Boldy, Spencer Knight, York, Caufield, and Alex Newhook) who each stayed for their sophomore season in 2020-21. All five found both individual and team success.

While the talk from Power and Beniers may be just that - or might be posturing, or a soft commitment, or an exception that comes from playing in a season that was unlike any other - it rings true. Neither coming back would be a surprise. Neither coming back to Michigan before stepping into the NHL next March/April would seem like a step back. 

That it's a viable option goes a long way in showing where college hockey is perceived in the greater hockey zeitgeist. There aren't columns on why it would be a bad move or an exception based on a global pandemic. It seems different even compared to Hughes and Makar, both of whom returned for their sophomore seasons in 2019, making their decisions. 

And it seems very different than a decade ago when teenagers made soft NCAA commitments to go to the CHL and teams pushed that route over the college path. Those days are over. If not Power and Beniers, the trend is heading towards the next top pick staying the extra season in college.
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Friday, July 16, 2021

Robert Morris potentially reinstates hockey, but at what cost?

"Don't mistake my kindness for weakness."

It's a quote that comes to mind with the news that Robert Morris, working with the Pittsburgh College Hockey Foundation, is open to potentially reinstating the men's and women's hockey programs it unceremoniously dropped six weeks ago in time for the 2021-22 season. 

Once again, college hockey came together to help a program under duress. Like Alabama Huntsville, Alaska Anchorage, and others before (Bowling Green comes to mind), Colonials hockey is not going without a fight.

I can't say enough good things about both the Pittsburgh and college hockey communities for the work done to get to this point. Six weeks ago I wouldn't believe it. News of RMU's decision was universally derided. Even then, it was a decision made by leadership that had no interest in sponsoring hockey programs and made it apparent that it absolutely no interest. Robert Morris did everything it could to erase its existence.

Through all that, the Pittsburgh College Hockey Foundation (made up of RMU alums and prominent people in the Pittsburgh hockey community) went above and beyond to keep Robert Morris hockey in the headlines. They hired a top lawyer. They worked tirelessly even when current players, dumped to the cold at a time when most teams had already settled on their lineups, found new homes, or turned pro. They reached a point where RMU was open to reinstating both teams if they can raise a large amount of money in a short period of time. 

No matter what happens, the people involved with the Pittsburgh College Hockey Foundation should be proud of showing how the hockey community can be at its best when facing the worst occasions. 

Sadly, they might be the only ones who truly come off well.

The Robert Morris leadership doesn't deserve credit or applause for Tuesday's announcement. The about-face RMU leaders did looks more like a Plan B that benefits them after Plan A - getting rid of hockey, a sport that the university President and other top brass wanted to get rid of - went so badly.

Moving the goalposts to "raise sufficient funds by the end of July" lets RMU off the hook by changing the conversation and perception. The university that went out of its way to promote its all-time fundraising and how cutting men's and women's hockey was part of a "strategic vision" rather than financial now sees an expensive sport that people want to keep as an opportunity. 

At best, it's an acknowledgment of the community's kindness. At worst, it's a money grab and a worrying trend in college hockey that puts the onus back on the community. If they can't raise money quick by the end of the month and $7 million over the next five years, well too bad.

RMU is now the third university in the past year to resort to publicly raising money to save a program. Both Alabama Huntsville (successfully) and Alaska Anchorage (TBD) went to the GoFundMe well in the face of becoming independent, something Robert Morris does not face in wanting to come back for next season.

Seeing Robert Morris also go this route smacks more of an opportunity than anything else. What worries me is that more universities are coming to the conclusion that the hockey community will keep the sport afloat regardless of the university's contribution and forcing their hand. It's a trend that can spell disaster to several small programs beyond the RMUs of the world. The more often it happens, the more often this will be seen as a viable path. No one wins in that scenario.

Even then, raising the money does not guarantee safety (see: Alabama Huntsville dropping its program once again days after being a highlight on GoFundMe's homepage). Nothing has changed. The "strategic vision,"  the group that wants to get rid of the sport, the group that kept the sport off-campus with no hockey in a new building - all remains in place. 

That quote? Well, it goes both ways. Robert Morris should not mistake the kindness of the hockey community as a sign of weakness that involves fundraising, but the community should not mistake RMU's kindness either. It's anything but. 

Hopefully, it goes well for the sake of the Pittsburgh hockey community. Hopefully, two teams return. Throw in needing to build two completely new teams by scratch in a month and playing next season seems a bigger dream.

However, the biggest sign of where things stand at the moment is that the CHA and Atlantic Hockey each announced 2021-22 schedules without Robert Morris on the same day as RMU's announcement.

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Wednesday, July 14, 2021

BLOG: A Fitting End to the Zach Parise-Ryan Suter Minnesota Wild Era

It's fitting the $196 Million Dollar Men leave Minnesota together.
Buying out both Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, as Wild GM Bill Guerin did Tuesday, marks a major franchise move, one that clearly ends an era for the team that arrived with the two being a package deal nine Julys ago.

Eras do not often come with such clean beginnings and/or ends. Normally, the start of any decade looks a lot like the one it follows before evolving into something different. In this case, the Wild franchise gets both. 

July 4, 2012 kickstarted the next chapter for Minnesota when, after two-plus years of looking at a potential Parise/Suter signing being one of the only positives Wild fans could muster, dreams became reality. Not one, but both of the two best free agents to hit the market in years chose Minnesota. Their decision put the "State of Hockey" on the national map in a way the Wild spent a decade struggling to reach. 

Suddenly, there were reasons to watch besides being the B-Side of a matchup. There were reasons to host a Winter Classic besides being home to the capital of outdoor hockey with a fanbase that consistently sold out Xcel Energy Center during tough times.

Signing both to matching 13-year, $98 Million deals remains the biggest move in franchise history. With apologies to Jacques Lemaire, Marian Gaborik, and Mikko Koivu, time can be split to pre and post-Parise/Suter. 

On this new side of post-Parise/Suter, however, it's tough to not see the past nine years on the ice as a failure in spite of success for the franchise off of it. Minnesota never reached a conference final - its best team was upset in the first round of the playoffs. What was supposed to be the beginning of a contending run ended like almost every other WCHA player from the late 90s-early 2000s the Wild brought in: bought out.

Handing the keys to the franchise over to a pair of Midwestern Olympians in their prime staved off Minnesota's plan to fully commit to a rebuild after multiple first-round busts. Parise and Suter were sold on a vision of being with Koivu and leading the Wild's top-end prospect pool, which at the time included Mikael Granlund, Jason Zucker, and Charlie Coyle, among others.

The best-laid plans did not come to fruition. Chemistry always seemed to be a problem, no matter the coach or GM. The team did not come together.

Minnesota went from mediocre down to a bottom-10 team when Parise/Suter signed back up to mediocre no man's land. The Wild, at best, resides at the bottom of a contending tier. 

To be honest, the writing was on the wall. Buying out both with four years remaining is a bold move in the spirit of the original, but it does not take a sleuth hiding in the bushes to see it coming. Three GMs tried to get Minnesota over the hump during the Parise-Suter Era. The past two, neither of whom signed the duo, each wanted to put their own stamp on the team.

Neither GM had the duo in their plans. Parise spent much of the regular season and playoffs being out of favor in the lineup. Suter was a top D yet not a franchise D. Neither player - both longtime alternates - getting the "C" after Koivu's farewell last season was another sign of the franchise's direction.

It's fitting the words said by Guerin involved moving forward. Like Koivu, like Granlund, like Zucker, like Coyle before them, the team in 2012 is now gone. Getting rid of both allows Matt Dumba to be protected in next week's expansion draft (the second time moves were made to save him). It's Kaprizov/Fiala/Eriksson Ek time now, with the only question being who, if anyone, will join them soon. The franchise is moving forward into the next era yet carries remnants of the previous one.

Although we'll see, this new chapter likely faces the issue where it's not quite a rebuild, not quite all-in to reach contending status. Guerin has the ability to see his vision through. However, buying out Parise and Suter puts the Wild in a cap crunch long-term moving forward that likely forces the team to rely on its young prospects in the same way Minnesota banked on them in 2012. Guess it's fitting.

It's also fitting the Wild did get that Winter Classic thanks in part to Parise and Suter while neither will be around to play in it. Both loomed large over the franchise for nearly a decade and yet can't say it makes sense to retire 11 or 20 in the same way it makes sense to send 9 into the rafters. Both leave the "State of Hockey" much as they found it, leaving Minnesota's quest for a Stanley Cup over to the next great big name hope.

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