Monday, March 29, 2021

16 Thoughts From NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament Regional Weekend

If the big, non-pandemic-related story coming into the NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament was the return of college hockey's blueblood programs at the top, it is no longer a story. North Dakota, Boston College, Minnesota, and Wisconsin were the tournament's top four overall seeds.

None of the four will be going to Pittsburgh.

Instead, the continued rise of the sport's new blood rolls onto the Steel City. The last two teams to play in the Frozen Four - two-time champion Minnesota Duluth and 2019 national runner-up Massachusetts - are joined by two of the sport's most consistent schools over the past 5 years in St. Cloud State and Minnesota State. Only Minnesota Duluth sponsored D1 men's hockey before the mid-1980s. The Bulldogs appeared in as many Frozen Four appearances this decade as the other three teams have in total.

These four being 2021's remaining four is not quite due to parity. Taking out Michigan, who withdrew from the tournament prior to its opening game due to Covid protocol and positive tests, and the four Frozen Four participants were the next four highest seeds playing after the No. 1 seed quartet. Each had plenty of recent NCAA Tournament experience, both good and bad. 

Experience matters over pure skill. It showed this weekend compared to the No. 1 seeds, each of whom returned to the NCAA Tournament after multiple years away. Besides UMass, none of the four remaining schools played its best hockey over the final two weekends before the NCAA Tournament. Those went down one after another. The No. 1 seeds, talented as all are and looked at times, were unable to adjust or find that extra goal in single-elimination hockey.

This Frozen Four may be compiled of familiar names and stories, however, for several, it comes after years of squads with higher ceilings falling short. Coincidentally or not, these four teams were the four No. 1 seeds in 2019.

These are not the most talented recent teams from each of the four Frozen Four schools. Minnesota State finally got its elusive NCAA Tournament win, a year after its upperclassmen-led squad 2020 missed out on a chance to end the 0-6 streak. St. Cloud State beat back the narrative of three massive upsets in five seasons. UMass returns with Cale Makar, Mario Ferraro and John Leonard. Even Minnesota Duluth, the two-time champion, goes for its third with a team that features more question marks than any of the three previous Frozen Four squads.

But none of that matters. What does, and what was given importance in this year, is that in the current age of parity and the fine line between winning and losing, the NCAA Tournament does not reward the best teams. It rewards the best teams to handle the situation. 

These four have the experience to do so.

Here are 16 more thoughts from a wild NCAA Tournament regional weekend.

1. Minnesota State ended the West Regional celebrating while Van Halen's "Top of the World" played over the Loveland speakers. Honestly, it came a little over 24 hours late.

After two straight NCAA Tournaments where the Mavericks led by multiple goals early before collapsing late, Mike Hastings' squad came from behind late to defeat Quinnipiac in overtime. Ryan Sandelin's OT goal ended a 25-year long streak to put Minnesota State and its fanbase on top of the world.

And to be honest, getting the first win led to an easier second. The Mavericks, after being a minute away from another loss and coming off being blown out by Northern Michigan, looked more like the team that shut down the WCHA, besting Minnesota at its own game a day after the Gophers blew out Omaha. Dryden McKay had an easy night for his 24th career shutout.

That's the difference one game can make. That's the difference one night can do for a generation of perception.

2. Can the North Star College Cup come back?

Even before this weekend, the past decade has been a golden age of men's college hockey in Minnesota. Since college hockey's last realignment in 2013, there has not been a year where multiple Minnesota teams finish in the top-10. Dozens of recent banners from the three western conferences hang in arena rafters. 2019 had the top-3 NCAA Tournament seeds all be from the "State of Hockey."

Herb Brooks would be proud for years before this weekend. Still, this might be the best three days in the state's history. All five schools made the same NCAA Tournament for the first time. All five schools won at least one game. Three will represent the state in the Frozen Four, becoming only the second time one state has had three representatives (Michigan in 1992 being the other).

Outside of them not playing nice with one another, the biggest disappointment among the Minnesota schools has been not getting the attention and respect the schools deserve. College hockey has never been better in the state and, up until this season, attention has never been lower. Hopefully, this weekend changes that.

3. The first-game crazies continued this year with Bemidji State upsetting Wisconsin. Since 2007, eight upsets have taken place in the Friday afternoon slot. That does not include crazy opening games where the favored team eventually won, like Yale taking Boston University to OT in 2015, or Michigan Tech nearly upsetting Notre Dame in 2018. Whether it is the afternoon time or added attention, that slot seems to bring out weird results.

The Beavers also added to the streak of at least one No. 4 seed upsetting a No. 1 seed every tournament since 2006. Might be something to remember for next year's bracket when the rest of your pool has four No. 1 seeds playing in the Frozen Four. (Signed, someone whose bracket had a perfect Bridgeport Regional.)

4. There was no better summary of Wisconsin's season than the Badgers playing six forwards in an attempt to overcome a two-goal deficit. As good as Cole Caufield's season was - his 30 goals in 31 games were the best goal-scoring per game margin of any D1 men's college hockey player in the 21st century - Wisconsin needed its forward group to overcome the "cold" days of its hot and cold goaltending. Caufield had two goals, several more chances, and was a pro before the first round was over.

5. What is left to say about the Minnesota Duluth-North Dakota 5 OT Classic? The longest game in NCAA Hockey Tournament history, men's or women's, became one of the few college hockey events that broke through to the casual sports fan. It passed the "non-hockey friends and parents text you about it" test.

For those up Saturday night, the Fargo Regional final was a magical event where Sunday morning you felt like part of a club for staying up to 1:40 AM ET. This game, from start to end of regulation to the goalie change to the posts and no goals to Luke Mylymok's winner, will be brought up for years to come. 

The longer the Bulldogs and Fighting Hawks battled, the higher the tension became. North Dakota looked like it would end the game multiple times, hitting three posts in OT after coming back from 2-0 down with less than two minutes to play. UND also had the luxury of a potential Minnesota Duluth game-winning OT goal called off for the slimmest of offsides.

In the end, UMD's OT streak lives on for another day. The Bulldogs have won nine straight OT games in the NCAA Tournament dating back to 1985. It's the fifth straight tournament where the team needed an extra period to win its opening game. Scott Sandelin prepares his team for the occasion and finds ways to win.

It's unfortunate someone had to lose because for the fans watching, everyone won. 

6. Massachusetts forward Carson Gicewicz was the player of the weekend, scoring four goals. The Sandelins (Ryan and Scott) easily end up being the family of the weekend with a pair of Frozen Four trips and legendary stories.

7. More than any of the other No. 1 seeds, North Dakota showcased the cruelty of single-elimination hockey. The Fighting Hawks had the talent and ability to score in bunches, doing so both against AIC and Minnesota Duluth, and the majority of overtime chances in the Fargo regional final. Like the Minnesota State win over Quinnipiac where the Mavericks controlled play late in the third and OT, no one would be surprised to see the Fighting Hawks end UMD's NCAA Tournament streak and dethrone the national champion. Unfortunately, two years of being the top team in college hockey end short of a Frozen Four appearance.

8. Speaking of single-elimination hockey cruelty, College Hockey News' Greg Cameron tweeted this photo of Quinnipiac's seniors taking their time in what could be their last collegiate game.



It's a common reality in a sport where all except 1 team ends the year with a loss. This time of year is full of awkward and difficult postgame press conferences where seniors come in still wearing their uniforms 10-15 minutes removed from their final appearance. I need two hands to count the number of times I've had to console players. Anyone who says they don't care has no idea what they are saying.

While this season is different than all other seasons because of the extra year of eligibility, it's still a reminder the rosters will be different next year. Players will be graduating and moving on with their lives.

9. And now for something somewhat similar: The WCHA is not dead yet.

For a while on Saturday afternoon, it looked like the WCHA's nearly seven decades of sponsoring men's hockey would be coming to an end with almost simultaneous losses by Bemidji State and Minnesota State. The Mavericks came back to buck the trend and in the process became the first WCHA team post-realignment (and first since St. Cloud State went to Pittsburgh in its only other Frozen Four appearance in 2013) to make the Frozen Four. 

It was a big weekend for the WCHA, which saw more wins in three days than it had in the seven previous seasons post-realignment. Only Ferris State (2014 and 2016) had won NCAA Tournament games.

When given the chance for the thing casual sports fans in Minnesota wrongly have been saying for a while - that Don Lucia (now the commissioner of the CCHA that 7 of the remaining WCHA schools are reviving) and the Gophers - to technically happen, the Hockey Gods said see you on next Thursday.

10. The moment I knew this was a different St. Cloud State team than in years past came Saturday afternoon following Boston University's opening goal.

After failing to score on a five-minute first period major and going down 1-0 eight seconds into the second period, the Huskies spent multiple shifts creating chances. David Hrenak made a couple of good saves. The energy was different on the bench than in 2016, 2018 and 2019, where once things went wrong there was almost a panic by St. Cloud State to make it right. Goalies can steal games this time of year (and that pretty much happened in 2018 against Air Force), however, teams can make it easy with shot selection and scoring chances. I knew once AIC went up 2-0 in 2019 that this was doomed for a repeat.

SCSU did not play tight. There were no heads down. The Huskies continued to work to create chances. It paid off with a pair of goals inside a minute against BU, a penalty shot goal, and a similar performance the next afternoon after going down 1-0 against a rested Boston College team and losing Easton Brodzinski to injury. 

Speaking of the two Boston teams, I am curious to see how each looks next season. Both could see several players leave for the pros. As of this writing, one - BU defender David Farrance - already signed an NHL entry-level contract after returning for his senior year. BC's Matt Boldy, Alex Newhook and Spencer Knight could all leave early. BU's Jay O'Brien is a first-round pick three years removed from being selected by Philadelphia.

10a. The aforementioned penalty shot goal.



10b. That bit about St. Cloud State being at its best when expectations are lowest turned out to be accurate. The same can be said with how Wisconsin could be upset and Massachusetts can win. Let's not discuss the part about the Gophers getting better as the weekend goes on, though.

11. For the first time in a long time, I did not spend the weekend at a regional. Following along on TV, two standouts were Leah Hextall doing play-by-play at the Fargo regional with Dave Starman, and Colby Cohen being the third man in at Bridgeport and the studio Sunday. It would be great to see both get expanded roles when ESPN gets the NHL rights back next season.

Ben Holden and Fred Pletsch were fantastic in the West Regional. It's been a blast getting the pairing back this season on BTN for Big Ten games. Having a studio with live coverage to react made a big difference. It could get repetitive by the end of the weekend watching 10 games but original commentary beats showing the same segment 10 times.

12. On the other hand, there were way too many errors in graphics and player names for what should be college hockey's premiere weekend. I understand that storylines are going to be promoted and simplified for people who are not following along all season. This was not the case. Too many small mistakes brought down what was a good weekend of coverage otherwise.

Also, has anyone else ever abbreviated Nebraska Omaha as NEOM?

13. This might need to be a bigger future article diving into Massachusetts but Greg Carvel's team's regional success of late is the "win close games" exception that proves the rule. In the four regional games in 2019 and 2021, the Minutemen outscored its opponents 17-1. Ashton Calder's goal Friday night for Lake Superior State is the only one Filip Lindberg has given up. 

Alongside Carson Gicewicz's four goals (including his first collegiate hat trick that John Buccigross willed into existence - the first natural hat trick in the NCAA Tournament since Jarid Lukosevicius in the 2017 National Championship Game), Lindberg was outstanding all weekend. Splitting time with Matt Murray, he may not get the respect or award nominations that several others of Lindberg's contemporaries do. After another weekend performance like this, Lindberg should. 

14. Another thought that likely needs to be its own article is where Minnesota goes from here. The Gophers took a massive step forward in Bob Motzko's third and the program's 100th season. Minnesota built upon past success and a solid 2019-20 second half to return to the country's elite. 

Minnesota is going in the right direction mixing skill and veteran players. Of all the Big Ten teams, Motzko is closest to perfecting his ratio. I thought the Gophers utilized its depth well against Omaha before having no answer for Minnesota State. Scott Reedy and Sampo Ranta scored, but so did Mason Nevers (0 entering the game) and Ryan Johnson (1 ENG in two seasons). 

There will be changes for next season even before the opening of the transfer portal and the possibility of an extra senior season. While early departures and seniors leaving are to be expected, the defensive core should remain intact, which is good news on both sides of the ice. Jared Moe will get his chance in goal after a Mike Richter Top-3 season (and possibly more) from Jack LaFontaine. 

It's a team that has a lot to look forward to yet also a season that will sting with how it ended. There's a missed opportunity while three other Minnesota teams play onward. Those do not come along every year.

At the end of the weekend, the Gophers had one outstanding performance and one that was anything but. We all know which one will be remembered more.

15. One issue that seems to be a yearly one is ice conditions at regionals. When it's a problem at multiple regionals, as it was at Albany and Bridgeport (and Loveland to a lesser extent), something needs to be done. There are no large crowds. There really should be no excuses. Six months of games should not be decided on bad ice.

If the NCAA just wants to hire Fargo's ice team to oversee all future regionals, please go ahead. Scheels Arena was the exception to the rule despite having a five OT game thanks to putting in the extra effort months beforehand. Have to think Spencer Knight would rather play there than kick the net off its moorings a half-dozen times and St. Cloud State seeing leading scorer Easton Brodzinski go down with what appeared to be a major injury. He wasn't the only player who took an odd spill in Albany.

16. Finally, I'm not sure if we learned everything we would want to from this weekend. Half the Big Ten teams - Michigan and Notre Dame - withdrew before the NCAA Tournament began due to Covid protocol. Add in St. Lawrence and it's 3 of 17 teams. 

Playing in a pandemic was likely going to bring complications. Unfortunately for this year's tournament, it did, and then some. I can't imagine the disappointment for the Wolverines and Fighting Irish players to achieve their goal and see it snatched away by something out of their control. It would not surprise me to see either team reach the Frozen Four if they were able to play. Sadly, we'll never know how well each would fare.

Finding the middle ground between taking lessons from what happened on the ice and knowing that nothing is guaranteed is as fine of a line as winning and losing. (It makes the sweeping generalizations made from one game look like concrete opinions.) I am looking forward to the UMass-UMD rematch and seeing Minnesota State and St. Cloud State finally each get their due. 

However, I know nothing is guaranteed during a time where the United States is still experiencing 70K new cases of Covid daily.

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Friday, March 26, 2021

2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament: Why Your Team Can Win It All (Loveland Regional)

Enough parity exists in the NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament where at least one No. 4 seed has upset a No. 1 seed in every tournament played since 2005. The unexpected is more than expected. It is no surprise, in an era where the final at-large bid has won three of the last seven national titles, to see any of the 16 teams reach the Frozen Four.

Makes bracket challenges fun and impossible, even before playing in a global pandemic.

So with that in mind, I thought it would be best to preview the 2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament by showcasing two non-pandemic extremes. First, why each team can win the national championship. Second, why each team will be upset and lose in round 1. Add three players to watch and a "chip on their shoulders" ranking (1 being none and 10 being wanting to prove the world wrong) and there's a preview that covers the bases for your bracket challenge. 

This is the fourth and final regional preview. Wednesday featured the Fargo Regional. Yesterday (Thursday) featured both the Bridgeport Regional and Albany Regional.

Loveland Regional

No. 1 Seed: Minnesota

Why the Gophers will win it all: Minnesota (23-6-0) plays disciplined hockey and has several paths to victory in a testing tournament that culminates the Centennial Season of Gopher Hockey with a regional in the Centennial State.

Whether it is the goal-scoring consistency of Sampo Ranta, who has 18 goals, the depth of seven players with 20+ points, or goaltender Jack LaFontaine's Hobey Baker top-ten finalist performance this season (.936% save percentage and five shutouts), Minnesota makes itself a tough out. The Gophers continued last season's second-half push into a perfect 10-0-0 start before the rest of the conference made headway. 

The Gophers won three games in three days - including a pair of comeback OT wins - to take home the Big Ten conference tournament championship. Each game seemed to have a different hero - Bryce Brodzinski and Blake McLaughlin playing his best hockey are two examples - which speaks to the depth on Bob Motzko's team. A young blue line full of puck movers has played well above its age. Minnesota earned its No. 1 seed, playing like the team Motzko envisioned and recruited when taking over the program three years ago.

Why the Gophers will be upset in round 1: Minnesota gets better as the weekend goes on, which is both the sign of an elite team and a bad sign in a single-elimination tournament where it takes one bad night to end a season.

The Gophers lost four of its six games in the first game of a two-game series. In the Big Ten tournament, it was Michigan State who made Minnesota sweat in the opening game. Historically, Minnesota has struggled outside the state of Minnesota in the NCAA Tournament, having not won a regional game outside MN since 2007 (the last time the Gophers played in Colorado). While the Gophers are undefeated when scoring first, Omaha did defeat top-ranked North Dakota twice in six games. 

Chip on their shoulder ranking: 6. I'm sure Minnesota will have a chip on its shoulder after the way the Big Ten regular-season ended and returning to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017. The Gophers play well when having one, but the team does not have the same argument as others in this region.

Three Players To Watch: #45 G- Jack LaFontaine (CAR), #58 F- Sampo Ranta, #9 F- Sammy Walker (TBL)


No. 2 Seed: Minnesota State 

Why the (Purple) Mavericks will win it all: No goaltender has shut teams down like Minnesota State (20-4-1) goalie Dryden McKay this season.

The junior leads the nation with nine shutouts - the gap between first and second would be tied for fourth - in 23 starts and a 1.40 GAA. His outstanding play is to be expected to the point where the few games teams have been able to score multiple goals stand out for the accomplishment.

It also helps the Mavericks control possession like no other team. On average, Minnesota State outshoots opponents by over 15 shots per game. (Second place is ~10 shots per game.) Mike Hastings continues to reload with diamonds in the rough, with Cade Borchardt, Nathan Smith and Akiro Hirose as underclassmen shining through. Another newbie is senior Todd Burgess, who transferred from RPI, to go with a large senior class that missed a chance at redemption last season. Minnesota State's consistency is on a level few can match recently. It would be fitting for the Mavericks to end with a reward.

Why the Mavericks will be upset in round 1: Do you know the history of Minnesota State in the NCAA Tournament? If yes, just skip to the next section.

If not, well...the Mavericks remain looking for an elusive NCAA Tournament win. The past two attempts saw Minnesota State with multi-goal leads early before eventually losing. Again, this is a new year and one that does not see Providence in Providence, but the legend of the first win grows bigger with each passing tournament. Maybe that game already happened after Northern Michigan jumped out to a 5-0 lead within two periods in the WCHA conference tournament semifinal. Maybe it was just a sign to come.

Chip on their shoulder ranking: 10. Easy 10. The history, the seeing last season's tournament canceled, the not being a No. 1 seed this year despite running through the WCHA and having the best record nationally, easterners questioning the WCHA, the fact it's been 20 years and Mankato State still slips through...all of it is enough to place the Mavericks at the maximum chip on their shoulders. You've earned it.

Three Players To Watch: #8 F- Nathan Smith (WPG), #5 F- Jake Jaremko (Undrafted), #29 G- Dryden McKay (Undrafted)


No. 3 Seed: Quinnipiac

Why the Bobcats will win it all: Perhaps because Quinnipiac (17-7-4) spent the season playing in a 4...then 3...then 2 team league, several QU players seem to be flying under the radar. Rand Pecknold continues to recruit well. The team is fourth in goal margin. Ty Smilanic had one of the best rookie seasons nationally, scoring 14 goals in 28 games. Peter DiLiberatore returned, being an all-around top D, while Wyatt Bongiovanni returns after missing much of the season. He has 5 goals in 8 games played.

The most underrated player nationally might be senior Odeen Tufto, who sits second in points with 45. The Mat Barzal of New Haven County creates plays from the tiniest of openings. Then there's Zach Metsa, whose 26 points leads all blueliners nationally, and Keith Petruzzelli having a Mike Richter Award finalist season.

There was a lot to like about this year's Quinnipiac team when it was March 2020. Weird year aside, there is still a lot to like about this year's Quinnipiac team's chances.

Why the Bobcats will lose in round 1: A combination of the unknown and known.

Quinnipiac enters the NCAA Tournament coming off its most embarrassing loss of the season, losing the ECAC championship in OT to St. Lawrence. Almost every team has a bad loss, however, and QU is 7-2-1 in its last 10 games. Still, with the limited and strange schedule the Bobcats played - QU went 2-2-2 against Clarkson - it's tough to know where Quinnipiac stacks up against the rest of the country.

For the known, this upcoming game features the only two teams sharing a common opponent. Both Minnesota State and Quinnipiac faced Bowling Green. While the Mavericks made quick work of the Falcons, sweeping the WCHA foe, BGSU swept Quinnipiac. If that is any indication, then it might be an easy night for the Mavericks.

Chip on their shoulder ranking: 7.5. Shouldering the weight of the ECAC and wanting to prove QU belongs is enough of a chip on their shoulder to push Quinnipiac into the upper tier.

Three Players To Watch: #29 F- Odeen Tufto (undrafted), #96 F- Ty Smilanic (FLA), #3 D- Peter DiLiberatore (VGK)


No. 4 Seed: Omaha

Why the (Red) Mavericks will win it all: In the words of the great Mike Eidelbess, "And then there's Omaha..."

The 16th and final profile comes from a team whose last NCAA Tournament appearance (2015) resulted in an unexpected Frozen Four run. Don't count Omaha (14-10-1) this time around either. The Mavericks own a pair of wins over North Dakota and have been a tough out for any opponent. The team is 11-1-0 when scoring first this season.

Omaha's run to the 2021 NCAA Tournament comes from a consistent season, beating the teams it should. Isaiah Saville has been the goaltender Omaha expected when he came on campus as the USHL Goaltender of the Year. The junior line of Tyler Weiss-Chase Primeau-Taylor Ward leads the way offensively although Mike Gabinet's group is more than a one-line team. Five different players have eight or more goals.

Why the Mavericks will lose in round 1: Of the teams still playing, no one has struggled of late quite like the Mavericks. 

Omaha, who went 3-6-1 against the other three remaining NCHC teams, enters the NCAA Tournament having lost four of its last five games, including an NCHC Quarterfinal appearance against Denver. In fairness, the other four games came against No. 1 overall seed North Dakota, but it's not the bit of confidence any team would like when it comes to the biggest stage of the year.

Including Notre Dame, 15 of the top 16 teams in goal margin over the past 10 games made the NCAA Tournament. The lone tournament team not among the top 16? Omaha, who sits tied for 31st (-4). The Mavericks are also one of three teams still playing with a negative shot margin and the one with the worst. Facing a Minnesota team who picks up momentum the longer it plays, that might be a sign of trouble.

Chip on their shoulder ranking: 7. Being the fourth seed can be enough reason to have a chip on your shoulder and wanting to prove teams wrong. Entering the NCAA Tournament the way the Mavericks did up the factor to at least a 7.

Three Players to Watch: #40 F- Tyler Weiss (COL), #31 G- Isaiah Saville (VGK), #17 F- Taylor Ward (undrafted)

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Thursday, March 25, 2021

2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament: Why Your Team Can Win It All (Albany Regional)

Enough parity exists in the NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament where at least one No. 4 seed has upset a No. 1 seed in every tournament played since 2005. The unexpected is more than expected. It is no surprise, in an era where the final at-large bid has won three of the last seven national titles, to see any of the 16 teams reach the Frozen Four.

Makes bracket challenges fun and impossible, even before playing in a global pandemic.

So with that in mind, I thought it would be best to preview the 2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament by showcasing two non-pandemic extremes. First, why each team can win the national championship. Second, why each team will be upset and lose in round 1. Add three players to watch and a "chip on their shoulders" ranking (1 being none and 10 being wanting to prove the world wrong) and there's a preview that covers the bases for your bracket challenge. 

Yesterday (Wednesday) featured the Fargo regional. Today already featured the Bridgeport regional while tomorrow (Friday) showcases the Loveland regional.

NOTE: This post was written before the NCAA announced Notre Dame would be unable to play in the NCAA Tournament due to Covid protocols. Boston College automatically advances to the Albany Regional Final. The Fighting Irish are the second team that earned the right to participate yet are unable to play. ND originally got into the NCAA Tournament only because St. Lawrence had to withdraw. 

With this year's tournament being played in these uncertain times, a team being pulled due to Covid protocols was likely a possibility. I am leaving in Notre Dame's section to show how the team would do if healthy and able to participate. I did update Boston College's "why the Eagles will be upset" section, however.

Albany Regional


No. 1 Seed: Boston College


Why the Eagles will win it all: A theme exists among the top four teams where each college hockey blueblood returns to the NCAA Tournament as a national title contender after missing multiple tourneys. 

Boston College (17-5-1) sits atop the Albany Regional after being the top Hockey East team all season. The talented Eagles team did not miss a beat despite losing star sophomore forward Alex Newhook, who has 7 goals in his last 10 games, for a large portion of the season. Another star sophomore forward, Matt Boldy, leads the team with 30 points (10G-20) in 21 games. Only North Dakota averages more goals per game than BC (3.91). Boston College's scoring depth goes beyond its elite players with 8 having 15 or more points.

Of the four bluebloods, Spencer Knight stands out individually in goal. Knight, who helped lead USA Hockey to a 2021 WJC gold medal, has championship-level experience. The sophomore enters the NCAA Tournament with a .933% save percentage and three shutouts. Teams need good goaltending and defense to advance in the NCAA Tournament. Boston College can bring both, along with a plethora of elite players.

Why the Eagles will be upset in round 1 the regional final: Boston College features talent while its potential opponents, St. Cloud State or Boston University, each feature a more recent NCAA Tournament experience.

The Huskies have been a mainstay in the NCAA Tournament of late while BU seniors were on the Terriers team that upset No. 1 seed Cornell in 2018. It's been five years since the Eagles last made the NCAA Tournament, making this experience a new one.

At the same time, Boston College comes into the regional final rested but coming off a performance where the Eagles blew a 4-1 third period lead to UMass-Lowell, eventually losing in 2 OT. (Boston College did have a potential game-winning goal disallowed for offsides.) The game leaves a bad taste in the mouth and it will be interesting to see how BC responds. Sometimes. teams respond this time of year. Oftentimes, teams follow up with another disappointment.

Chip on their shoulder ranking: 2. Things are going well for the Eagles. Almost too well. On a team that features several future NHLers and is seeded second overall, the biggest chip on their shoulder might be from this low ranking.

Three Players To Watch: #12 F- Matt Boldy (MIN), #4 D- Drew Helleson (COL), #18 F- Alex Newhook (COL)


No. 2 Seed: St. Cloud State


Why the Huskies will win it all: St. Cloud State (17-10-0) has been at its best in the NCAA Tournament when expectations are lowered. For the first time in four appearances, the Huskies are not one of the top-two overall teams.

This year's St. Cloud State squad is plenty dangerous. The Huskies finished second in a tough NCHC regular season, finished second in the NCHC conference tournament, and went 7-5-0 against the conference's three NCAA Tournament teams. Two of those losses came in OT. No one should be surprised to see the Huskies return to the Frozen Four in Pittsburgh. Easton Brodzinski continues his high level of play, leading the team with 11 goals. Freshman Veeti Miettinen rightfully earned the NCHC Rookie of the Year award for his play. When the offense is going, St. Cloud State is a tough team to face, regularly putting up 4-5 goals a game.

David Hrenak is the most experienced goaltender in the Albany Regional, showing throughout his college career he can steal games. If he is able to find a way to do so, or the Huskies offense stays in gear, it would not be a surprise to see this St. Cloud State team end the year with a win. 

Why the Huskies will be upset in round 1: Do I have to write this one? Fine. Apologies in advance, SCSU fans.

Facing Boston University, St. Cloud State goes against a Terriers team with players to match its offensive talent and one of the top defenders. It won't be an easy game even if the Huskies are able to test BU goalie Drew Commesso. 

And then there's the elephant in the room. To not beat around the bush any longer, better St. Cloud State teams have been upset. In the last five years, AIC, Air Force and Ferris State all defeated Huskies teams in the opening round. This year's senior class was there for the first two. This is a different group, one that will get the chance to have its Virginia moment, but in this category ends up being relevant.

Chip on their shoulder ranking: 9. At least I hope it's a 9. At this point, if it's not a 9 after discussing the last section and the Huskies coming up short in both the regular season and conference tournament, something is wrong.

Three Players To Watch: #29 F- Veeti Miettinen (TOR), #19 F- Sam Hentges (MIN), #22 F- Easton Brodzinski (undrafted)

No. 3 Seed: Boston University


Why the Terriers will win it all: Boston University (10-4-1) has been a bit of an unknown this season in a season full of them. 

Multiple Covid pauses pushing BU's season debut to January, the Terriers enter the NCAA Tournament playing a total of 15 games. The late start did not hinder Boston University's results, with its talented group starting 9-2-0 and sweeping Massachusetts. Jay O'Brien, the rare first-round draft pick who transferred, made the most of his long wait, tying David Farrance for the team lead with 16 points. 

Speaking of Farrance, the senior defender earned his second Hobey Baker top-ten finalist nod despite only playing 10 games. When on the ice, Farrance makes Boston University a better team. Being healthy as the team has been recently, the Terriers are full of talent able to make noise in a single-elimination tournament like this one.

Why the Terriers will lose in round 1: The Terriers benefit from being a bit of an unknown and playing a smaller schedule. Playing a smaller schedule hides some of the issues Boston University faced during the season while comfortably sitting in an NCAA Tournament spot as the third-ranked Hockey East team.

No tournament team has as poor of a shot margin (-7.47 shots per game) as BU. In recent games, being consistently outshot came back to bite the Terriers, as Merrimack and UMass Lowell each defeated Boston University handily while outshooting BU. The Terriers face a Huskies group that can easily follow the footprint set by Hockey East teams and make a tough night for Boston University's defense; especially if the Lowell loss looms large to the Terriers.

Chip on their shoulder ranking: 6. The Terriers are getting overlooked. Whether it is teams in BU's conference, city, selection tier, or being one 5 Eastern teams, there is enough for Boston University players to work with to use a "nobody believes in us" mantra. It's not as much as others, with the Terriers returning for the first time in 3 seasons and would have been on the outside last year too, but teams have made work with worse.

Three Players To Watch: #4 D- David Farrance (NSH), #29 G- Drew Commesso (CHI), #11 F- Luke Tuch (MTL)

No. 4 Seed: Notre Dame


(Again, please note that the Fighting Irish will be unable to play due to Covid protocols and that I wrote this before the news was announced.)

Why the Fighting Irish will win would have won it all: Being the last team in the NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament is not a bad thing. Tell that to Yale (2013), Providence (2015), or a team Notre Dame knows all too well, Minnesota Duluth (2018).

In the 2021 tournament, Notre Dame (14-13-2) is the latest last team in that has what it takes to join the above list of national champions. The Fighting Irish can compete with top teams, sweeping Minnesota and Michigan each at home. Away from Compton Family Ice Arena, Jeff Jackson's team is 9-2-1. The law firm-sounding line of Slaggert (Graham), Slaggert (Landon) and Steeves (Alex) has been the Fighting Irish's best. All three sit atop ND's stat sheet. Spencer Stastney at times can be a magician on the blue line, making big-time plays on both sides of the ice.

When playing well, Notre Dame is one of the best teams in the nation. It's why in a single-elimination tournament where two big weekends can make larger difference than a .500 season, no one should be surprised to see the last at-large bid, one who got in because St. Lawrence dropped out, end the season as the last team standing.

Why the Fighting Irish will lose would have lost in round 1: For all the big wins, Notre Dame should be able to celebrate several more. ND is a paltry 9-5-1 this season when scoring the first goal. That total includes losing an early 2-0 lead against Penn State in the Big Ten conference tournament quarterfinal, the last game Notre Dame played before this weekend. 

While this year's Notre Dame team keeps Jeff Jackson's defensive mantra, it's been a different group after three seasons of Cale Morris in net. Dylan St. Cyr is making the most of his time being the Fighting Irish goaltender, holding down a .921% save percentage in 22 games played and 3 shutouts. St. Cyr has been able to steal a game or two when needed, but it's a big difference than having the stability of Morris going against Boston College. 

Chip on their shoulder rankings: 4. No team is playing with house money quite like Notre Dame after the way the Fighting Irish entered the NCAA Tournament. Still, the team can find some chips on their shoulder based on the number of people who had the Big Ten pegged at three teams or didn't consider Notre Dame's resume for the bubble teams. (Update: It's now a 10 for next season.)

Three Players To Watch: #16 F- Alex Steeves (undrafted), #24 D- Spencer Stastney (NSH), #19 F- Landon Slaggert (CHI)

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2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament: Why Your Team Can Win It All (Bridgeport Regional)

Enough parity exists where at least one No. 4 seed has upset a No. 1 seed in every NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament since 2005. The unexpected is more than expected. It is no surprise, in an era where the final at-large bid has won three of the last seven national titles, to see any of the 16 teams reach the Frozen Four.

Makes bracket challenges fun and impossible, even before playing in a global pandemic that already cost one team its chance for a title.

So with that in mind, I thought it would be best to preview the 2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament by showcasing two non-pandemic extremes. First, why each team can win the national championship. Second, why each team will be upset and lose in round 1. Add three players to watch and a "chip on their shoulders" ranking (1 being none and 10 being wanting to prove the world wrong) and there's a preview that covers the bases for your bracket challenge. 

Yesterday (Wednesday) featured the Fargo regional. Tomorrow (Friday) will feature the Loveland regional while the Albany regional goes up later today (Thursday).

Bridgeport Regional

No. 1 Seed: Wisconsin

Why the Badgers will win it all: Two words: Cole. Caufield.

Need more? Caufield, with 28 goals in 30 games, is on pace to have one of the best goal-scoring seasons in the last 20 years of college hockey. The sophomore forward needs the tiniest of openings to change a game and makes an impact on both sides of the ice. Likewise, Dylan Holloway has taken major steps in his sophomore season to become a top collegiate player in his own right. Few NCAA Tournament teams can match Wisconsin (20-9-1) there.

Still need more? Okay. Tony Granato has solved his goaltending issue with the Cameron Rowe-Robbie Beydoun goalie platoon. Both newcomers (Rowe a freshman, Beydoun a graduate transfer from Michigan Tech), are stopping pucks at above a .920% save percentage. The Badgers enter the NCAA Tournament 11-2-1 since January 29th. With high-end talent and a number of upperclassmen leading the way, Wisconsin went from worst to first in the Big Ten. Despite early losses, Wisconsin is finally being that team many were waiting for UW to be - one with the pieces of a national title contender.

Why the Badgers will be upset in round 1: Wisconsin's opponent has seen top offenses and gone Jon Taffer on them. Bemidji State is the only team to defeat Minnesota State (7th in goals per game - Wisconsin sits 3rd) twice this season, finding success shutting down the Mavericks and going toe to toe offensively in victory. The Beavers also went 3-1-0 against Bowling Green (9th in goals per game). 

It would not be a surprise to see Tom Serratore's team find a way to slow down the speedy and skilled Badgers team playing its first NCAA Tournament game. It's a different style of play than Wisconsin played against all season in the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Wisconsin enters giving up a combined nine goals in an overtime win against Penn State and loss to Minnesota. That opening NCAA game brings strange results.

Chip on their shoulder ranking: 4. The Badgers seem hungry in its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2014. This is what Caufield came back for when he had the opportunity to turn pro last season. However, it is tough to say Wisconsin is not getting the respect it deserves between earning the final No. 1 seed over other teams (including UMass) and Caufield being the presumptive Hobey Baker nominee.

Three Players To Watch: #8 F- Cole Caufield (MTL), #4 F- Dylan Holloway (EDM), #21 D- Ty Emberson (ARI)


No. 2 Seed: Massachusetts

Why the Minutemen will win it all: Two words. Cale....wait sorry, this isn't 2019. 

Two more years of experience brings a more mature, experienced Massachusetts (16-5-4) team compared to the 2019 national runner-up. The top three scorers, defender Marc Del Gaizo and goaltenders Filip Lindberg and Matt Murray are all upperclassmen. Greg Carvel has a veteran-laden group, which can be needed to go far in the NCAA Tournament.

At the same time, there is plenty of talent. Bobby Trivigno was the Walter Brown Award winner as the best American playing in New England. Carson Gicewicz put up 13 goals while Zac Jones has been one of the best all-around defenders in college hockey on a defense that allows the second-lowest goals per game. Massachusetts has found different ways to win. The Hockey East conference tournament champions are undefeated (14-0-1) when scoring the first goal. Entering the tournament on a 10-game unbeaten streak (7-0-3) and it is no surprise to see New Mass being a trendy new national championship pick.

Why the Minutemen will be upset in round 1: It's not 2019. Sequels do not always match the highs of the original and it is easy to see Massachusetts come up against a tougher path to the Frozen Four. Lake Superior State is the first western school UMass will see all season and offers a different matchup than the team has been seeing. The Lakers are also undefeated (13-0-1) when scoring first, however, the team has a better record than Massachusetts when playing from behind.

Then there is the fact Massachusetts went 1-4-0 against the two other Hockey East NCAA Tournament teams, Boston College and Boston University. (The record does go to 3-4-2 when including Providence, who was the first team out.) Credit to the Minutemen for beating the teams they need to because it is not easy, but it's a worse record against top teams compared to those in the same tier.

Chip on their shoulder ranking: 8. Massachusetts has a few factors to give the Minutemen a chip on their shoulder, whether it is not getting the No. 1 seed, being the only Eastern team in an east regional, or being doubted after Makar, Mario Ferraro and John Leonard departed early. Anyone surprised at this point just hasn't been paying attention.

Three Players To Watch: #24 D- Zac Jones (NYR), #35 G- Filip Lindberg (MIN), #8 F- Bobby Trivigno (undrafted)


No. 3 Seed: Lake Superior State

Why the Lakers will win it all: Furthering the theme of the Bridgeport regional, WCHA Conference Tournament champion Lake Superior State (19-6-3) enters the NCAA Tournament on a bit of a hot streak. Why not continue?

Damon Whitten's team played its way into the NCAA Tournament, winning six straight and 12 of 14 en route to the Lakers' first tournament appearance since 1996. Ashton Calder has a pair of March hat tricks among his 15 goals this season. The offense is at a high point of late, sitting at 2/3 of a goal higher over the last 10 games than the season average. 

Defensively, Lake Superior State has a Mike Richter Award finalist in goal in Marek Mitens. The Lakers senior is sixth nationally with a .933% save percentage and tough for opposing offenses to solve. Since the winning ways began in mid-February, LSSU has allowed more than two goals only twice.

Why the Lakers will lose in round 1: Perhaps it's fitting that Lake Superior State plays Massachusetts because LSSU faces a team who shares a lot of similarities, several of which can be seen in the UMass section. Both are playing its best hockey. Both won conference tournament championships. Both can win games with goaltending and defense. Both have not lost when scoring the first goal of the game.

From a Lakers perspective, it also means Lake Superior State faces a team whose similar strengths are higher nationally, at least on the stat sheet. The Minutemen have allowed less than two goals per game on the season and a slightly better goal margin (+21) over the last 10 games than LSSU (+19). Massachusetts has the experience edge as well, which can come into play when the two teams face off.

Chip on their shoulder ranking: 3. Yes, there's the "WCHA does not get enough respect" card all three conference schools can play this season. However, there are three WCHA teams and Lake Superior State is a No. 3 seed. Add in the fact this is the first NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament appearance for LSSU in 25 years - Jeff Jackson coached the last team before starting up the USNTDP - and the return of a 90s dynasty makes for a fun story without the chip.

Three Players To Watch: #30 G- Marek Mitens (undrafted), #16 F- Ashton Calder (undrafted), #26 F- Pete Veillette (undrafted)


No. 4 Seed: Bemidji State

Why the Beavers will win it all: Playing in a regional situated two blocks from the P.T. Barnum Museum, Bemidji State (15-9-3), the school hailing from Paul Bunyan's fictional hometown, is no stranger to the circus that comes with shocking the world. Tom Serratore's shining moment in his two decades being behind the Nothern Minnesota bench is leading the No. 16 overall seed Beavers to the 2009 Frozen Four, winning two games by a combined 9-2 score.

This season, BSU has been at its best when playing against the WCHA's best. Goaltender Zach Driscoll is the latest in a run of Beavers goalies who can steal games, starting 26 of 27 games and entering the NCAA Tournament with a .924% save percentage. 

The team thrives defensively in low-scoring games, winning five of 15 games this season by a 2-0 or 2-1 score (excluding an empty-net goal). BSU won another 4-1 while being outshot 36-10. In a tournament where every goal matters, being comfortable playing in that environment can be a recipe for history repeating.

Why the Beavers will lose in round 1: The low-scoring defense will be tested by Wisconsin's high-scoring offense. As good as the WCHA's top offenses have been, Bemidji State has not faced an individual player like Cole Caufield and Dylan Holloway. Trying to stop one opens up opportunities for the other. With Caufield averaging almost a goal per game, it will take an elite defensive performance. While BSU has been at its best in the third period (+9 goal margin), it might be too late against the Badgers.

Bemidji State plays as a team to the sum of its parts compared to a group of individuals. It shows as BSU features the lowest goals per game of any NCAA Tournament team playing (St. Lawrence is lower), with its 2.81 average being 29th nationally. Ethan Somoza is the only Beaver with double-digit goals on a team that already played 27. 

Chip on their shoulder ranking: 7. This was going to be a 3 like LSSU, but a pair of misspellings in the NCAA Tournament Selection Show puts "Bimidji State" up to a 5 for the Beavers' first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2010. Add in being on the bubble and getting in to the surprise of some, along with being the only team without an NHL Draft pick, and it goes up to a 7 for Bemidji State.

Three Players To Watch: #33 G- Zach Driscoll (undrafted), #14 F- Alex Ierullo (undrafted), #9 F- Ethan Somoza

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Wednesday, March 24, 2021

2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament: Why Your Team Can Win It All (Fargo Regional)

When it comes to late March, the impossible shows up in college hockey. 

Today was the 25-year anniversary of Mike Legg's Michigan goal, and the 15-year anniversary of Holy Cross upsetting Minnesota in Grand Forks. (Surprisingly, nothing happened to the Gophers five years ago because these things tend to happen in threes.) Tomorrow (Thursday) sees the 10-year anniversary of Colorado College upsetting a Boston College team heavily favored to win the national title. Friday marks five years since Ferris State shocked No. 2 overall seed St. Cloud State at Xcel Energy Center.

Every day for the next week or so brings up an anniversary for teams, whether it is good, bad, or the craziness that was the 2009 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament.

Enough parity exists where at least No. 4 seed has upset a No. 1 seed in every NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament since 2005. The unexpected is more than expected. It is no surprise, in an era where the final at-large bid has won three of the last seven national titles, to see any of the 16 teams reach the Frozen Four.

Makes bracket challenges fun and impossible, even before playing in a global pandemic that already cost one team its chance for a title.

So with that in mind, I thought it would be best to preview the 2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament by showcasing two non-pandemic extremes. First, why each team can win the national championship. Second, why each team will be upset and lose in round 1. Add three players to watch and a "chip on their shoulders" ranking (1 being none and 10 being wanting to prove the world wrong) and there's a preview that covers the bases for your bracket challenge. 

Today (Wednesday) features the Fargo regional. Tomorrow (Thursday) features the Bridgeport and Albany regionals. Friday will feature the Loveland regional in time for the NCAA Tournament to begin.

Fargo Regional

No. 1 Seed: North Dakota

Why the Fighting Hawks will win it all: In a hectic, stop-and-start year, North Dakota (21-5-1) has been the most consistent team throughout college hockey. Why change now? 

The Fighting Hawks went 7-3-1 against the other NCHC NCAA teams and never lost two straight games all season. North Dakota won both the NCHC regular season and conference tournaments due in large part to its depth. Limiting to three players to watch is extremely tough given four UND players have double-digit goal scorers, led by NCHC POTY Shane Pinto. That is before discussing the blue line and goaltender Adam Scheel's .928% save percentage. 

It also helps that Brad Berry's team enters the NCAA Tournament with several players getting healthy. Overall, the Fighting Hawks have the goaltending, depth, and ways to win in March. That's usually a recipe for success and it's why North Dakota finds itself one of the tournament favorites.

Why the Fighting Hawks will be upset in round 1: The No. 1 overall seed lost in the first round in both 2018 and 2019. Sure, both of those years involved St. Cloud State, but the latter came at the hand of AIC at this same Fargo Regional. The Yellow Jackets enter the matchup with its players having more NCAA Tournament experience, as it has been since 2017 since North Dakota appeared. 

AIC, third in goals against, can also take away the possession advantage and shut teams down. In the Yellow Jackets' last seven games, opponents scored a total of seven goals. While North Dakota has been undefeated when scoring first, if AIC can jump out to an early lead and limit UND's offense (like it did against St. Cloud State), well AIC is undefeated against the No. 1 overall seed. 

Chip on their shoulder ranking: 9. It's tough for the No. 1. overall seed to enter the NCAA Tournament with a major chip on its shoulder, but North Dakota justifiably brings one down I-29 to Fargo. The Fighting Hawks were either the No. 1 or No. 2 team in the country when last season came to an end. Almost the entire squad returned for this shot.

Three Players to Watch: #22 F- Shane Pinto (OTT), #29 F- Jordan Kawaguchi (Undrafted), #26 D- Jake Sanderson (OTT)


No. 2 seed: Michigan

Why the Wolverines will win it all: High-end talent and finishing strong. 

After a flashy yet uneven start, Michigan (15-10-1) ended the season on a 9-4-1 run. Mel Pearson seems to get his teams playing its best hockey come March - the Wolverines made the 2018 Frozen Four as a No. 2 seed - and come out ready to play. In 2021, Michigan has lost only one opening game of a series, including wins against NCAA teams Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Strauss Mann might be one of the more underrated goaltenders in the country over the past two seasons, entering the NCAA Tournament with a .930% save percentage and five shutouts. Playing with 4 first and second-round NHL Draft picks, along with the possibility of multiple 2021 top-5 NHL Draft picks, when the Wolverines get going, few teams can match the team's speed and stop.

Why the Wolverines will be upset in round 1: Inexperience. Michigan's top-six scorers are all young underclassmen. Owen Power, Matty Beniers, and Kent Johnson are extremely talented yet three of the youngest players in college hockey. 

Many have played under the bright lights of international tournaments, but not the single-elimination NCAA Tournament. There is an adjustment. Facing an older, highly experienced Minnesota Duluth team is probably the worst spot to be in for this team, who wouldn't be the first young, talented group to find an early exit in the harsh realities of the NCA A Tournament. The Wolverines are also without one of its first-round picks in Johnny Beecher, who suffered a season-ending injury in February.

Chip on their shoulder ranking: 3. The Wolverines enter its first NCAA Tournament since the Frozen Four run with the talent to make another run but without the expectations. Maybe in another year, depending on who sticks around, those change. Still, there is some for being a No. 2 seed team and showing that the Big Ten deserves to have its third-ranked team be slotted so high.

Three Players to Watch: #10 F- Matty Beniers (2021 Draft), #22 D- Owen Power (2021 Draft), #4 D- Cam York (PHI)


No. 3 Seed: Minnesota Duluth

Why the Bulldogs will win it all: Did you watch the last two NCAA Tournaments? 

Taking away last season's no contest, the Bulldogs (14-10-2) are the two-time defending national champion. Minnesota Duluth has made it to three straight national championship games. UMD won in 2018 as a No. 3 seed and backed it up the next year with all the expectations in the world, winning as the No. 2 overall team. The Bulldogs look to win three straight NCAA Men's Hockey Tournaments, an accomplishment only made by its first-round opponent, Michigan.

This is a new year, but the championship framework remains. Upperclassmen with championship experience adorn the roster. Seniors Nick Swaney and Kobe Roth are both two-time champions and two of the top-three scorers. While the Bulldogs enter with 1 regulation win in its last 7 games, two of the three national championships over the past 10 years came with UMD struggling pre-NCAAs. Until proven otherwise, Minnesota Duluth can and will win it all.

Why the Bulldogs will lose in round 1: Scott Sandelin has yet to lose in the first round during his 21 seasons with Minnesota Duluth. However, that includes multiple close calls. Each of the past three NCAA Tournaments features first-round comebacks and OT wins by UMD. The Bulldogs get better as the tournament goes on, but that does not always help in a one-and-done format. 

This year's team is also different in that Minnesota Duluth lives with its offense. There is no Hunter Shepard, although Ryan Fanti and Zack Stejskal have had moments being his goaltending replacement. The best teams to play against Michigan are teams who have been able to get offense from its defense. That's not quite this year's UMD team after a run of it being the Bulldogs' calling card. Getting behind the Wolverines early would be a tough path for Minnesota Duluth to get back and make another comeback.

Chip on their shoulder ranking: 5. It seems like the Bulldogs are getting the respect a two-time national champion deserves. At the same time, it does not seem like Minnesota Duluth is being mentioned as a national title favorite. So there is some material to put a chip on their shoulder that lies somewhere in the middle 

Three Players To Watch: #23 F- Nick Swaney (MIN), #17 F- Cole Koepke (TBL), #5 D- Wyatt Kaiser (CHI)


No. 4 American International College

Why the Yellow Jackets will win it all: This is a strange year and a strange tournament. It would be extremely fitting for the first Atlantic Hockey national champion.

American International College (15-3-0) built off its program-defining 2018-19 season by winning the past two Atlantic Hockey regular-season titles - becoming the first school to win three straight - and returning to the NCAA Tournament with another conference tournament championship. The Yellow Jackets have the second-highest shot margin nationally, experience, and depth. Three players are at a PPG pace and four have seven or more goals despite only playing 18 games. Justin Cole has 9 goals in his last 10 games.

Several key players from the 2019 NCAA Tournament team, including GWG scorer Brennan Kapcheck and Tobias Fladeby, remain in 2021. Kapcheck, in particular, is one of the top offensive defenders in the country this season. Stefano Durante has had a solid season in net. In general, AIC is a tough team to put away and end. The team allowed the first goal in 7 games this season and went on to win six of those. 

Why the Yellow Jackets will lose in round 1: AIC has played a total of two games since the end of January. Both were last weekend. Both saw the Yellow Jackets needing third-period comebacks. Being fresh can be both a blessing and a curse. Against North Dakota, it might be the latter.

Although AIC is definitively the top team in Atlantic Hockey, facing the Fighting Hawks in Fargo is a challenge for any team. The only comparison outside of Atlantic Hockey AIC had all year was two games against Quinnipiac. The Yellow Jackets lost both games, including an 8-3 loss to the Bobcats in Hamden. 

Chip on their shoulder ranking: 8. Normally this would be a 5 for the 16th overall seed, who is both playing with house money and not getting respect. It gets bumped up to a 7 this year given the committee slotted AIC here despite losing three times all season (and after St. Lawrence dropped), and the number of New England-based media companies forgetting where American International University is located. Heck, I'll bump it up to an 8 for the "Fake New England" in this tweet.

Three Players To Watch: #8 D- Brennan Kapcheck (Undrafted), #20 F- Tobias Fladeby (Undrafted), #21 F- Justin Cole (Undrafted)

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Monday, March 22, 2021

Bracketology Postmortem: Answering The 2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament's Biggest Questions

The bracket is out and it is time for a little bracketology postmortem.

Here's the actual bracket:

Fargo:
1. North Dakota vs. 4. AIC
2. Michigan vs. 3. Minnesota Duluth

Albany:
1. Boston College vs. 4. Notre Dame
2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Boston University

Loveland:
1. Minnesota vs. 4. Omaha
2. Minnesota State vs. 3. Quinnipiac

Bridgeport:
1. Wisconsin vs. 4. Bemidji State
2. Massachusetts vs. 3. Lake Superior State

All in all, I am happy with my results considering the circumstances. Taking out St. Lawrence, who sadly announced after posting the final bracket that it would not be appearing in the NCAA Tournament due to a positive Covid case (always a possibility this year), means 14 of the 15 teams appearing on my list made the NCAA Tournament. It would be 15 of 16 taking out St. Lawrence, as my first team out was Bemidji State and I had the Beavers replacing the Saints. The committee did have BSU higher than me, meaning it was an easy call to include Bemidji State and have all five Minnesota men's hockey D1 schools in for the first time in history.

Omaha was in fact the fourth NCHC team. Michigan was in fact the highest of the third teams, earning the last No. 2 seed. Michigan-UMD in Fargo will be happening, and Boston College did end up in Albany instead of Bridgeport due to crowds being allowed in the former. Quinnipiac got in as a No. 3 seed, even before jumping up and taking the ECAC automatic bid. Several other ideas happened, just with different teams.

The only miss was Notre Dame getting in as the fourth Big Ten team instead of the fourth Hockey East team. While I had UMass Lowell getting in over Providence, the selection committee had PC ahead (the Friars are an alternate if any other team withdraws before Monday night) and went with the "neither" option. That was a miss. I was also more positive on the Fighting Irish's chances than most and am not surprised to see ND get in, but at the end of the day, I can't claim to have Notre Dame in my field.

There were also subjective misses in seeding. And I did not expect so much travel or an 11/5 West-East split from the selection committee based on what the committee had been saying pre-tournament.

So let's get into answering the questions. Mike Kemp, the NCAA Tournament selection committee chair, spoke to several outlets and cleared up some of the subjective criteria the committee used to decide the final at-large bids and seeding. You can check that out at both College Hockey News and USCHO.

1. Omaha, Denver, or both?

It was in fact Omaha. The Mavericks' record and performance were enough to get in over Denver having the better head-to-head record and a better resume than its record indicates. Looking at how the bracket turned out, the option for both and five NCHC teams was not a popular one.

2. Bemidji State, Bowling Green, both, or neither?

The Beavers get the nod over Bowling Green. According to Kemp, Bemidji State's better record against Minnesota State and Lake Superior State put the Beavers ahead of the Falcons. BGSU had a slightly better RPI and wins over Quinnipiac, which in a non-subjective year helps its case, but not this time around. That made all the difference in the world. In the end, a third WCHA team this season was ahead of the fourth team in other conferences, but a fourth was below the other conference's fourth team. Bemidji State is slated as the best of the "final three" at-large bids without Quinnipiac.

Credit where it's due to the WCHA fans and writers that correctly had the case for a third WCHA team - something the league has not had since realignment - being stronger than it appeared. I had it lower.

3. Providence, UMass Lowell, UConn, or how does the East/West split go?

So it turns out the answer was "Neither." UMass Lowell was playing for, in hindsight, either Omaha or Boston University's spot with the Hockey East automatic bid. Despite the RiverHawks reaching the conference tournament championship game and losing 1-0, the committee kept Providence as the fourth HE team. However, the Friars' record and other factors that will be discussed later kept PC behind other conferences.

11 Western teams versus 5 Eastern teams is a win for western politicking. Perception has the west as the better side of the country this season, however, perception does not always equal reality. Pre-St. Lawrence news, the split was 10/6 West-East, which is on the high side yet makes more sense than 11/5. When given the chance to replace one eastern team with another, the selection committee chose a western team in Notre Dame. All three of the final at-large spots were western teams.

As much as the final at-large spots are tough decisions, I figured politicking would make the East/West split closer.

4. Can a second team from a conference get a No. 1 seed? Does Minnesota State's loss to Northern Michigan knock the Mavericks out of the top four?

Yes and yes.

This section features several compromises and shows how small decisions change the bracket. The committee was open to ranking a second team from the same conference as a No. 1 seed, as Wisconsin earned the fourth No. 1 seed alongside Big Ten conference mate Minnesota.

Not only that but Massachusetts, the second Hockey East team, was ahead of the top WCHA team, Minnesota State. The Mavericks ended up sixth and head to No. 3 overall seed Minnesota's region, Loveland. If the compromise is a lower top overall seed for Minnesota State and three WCHA teams in the NCAA Tournament overall, it's a good one for the league. The Big Ten gets two No. 1 seeds of the four but the two hardest paths to the Frozen Four.

I also like how the decision of whether Wisconsin or Massachusetts should earn the last No. 1 seed ends up with both teams in the same region. That was something I also had in my bracket (albeit Minnesota State and Wisconsin) and think it's important in this subjective year. 

In addition to the two Big Ten teams, North Dakota was named the No. 1 overall seed while Boston College is No. 2 overall. BC being ahead of Minnesota is something I did not have yet completely understand based upon the entire season of work. It was a close call. Either option can be justified while not changing the locale of the two (thanks to Denver being out).

5. Does the committee go with bracket integrity or try and limit travel as much as possible?

Integrity by a landslide.

There were absolutely no attempts to limit travel and flights in a global pandemic. 11 of 16 teams will be flying, including three into Bridgeport. Quinnipiac is playing in Loveland while Lake Superior State goes to Bridgeport, Bemidji State is Bridgeport and AIC in Fargo, and Michigan heads to Fargo while Minnesota State goes to Loveland. 

If travel was truly an issue, the number of flights could be cut down by 2-6 while staying in the seeding bands. With North Dakota being the No. 1 overall seed and placed where it would be regardless, and knowing how the rest of the No. 1 seeds are ranked, it's pretty safe to say that the bracket is a straight 1-16, 2-15, etc. ranking. Kemp insinuated as much on the USCHO podcast.

(Obviously, a different selection committee, but I'm going to remember this choice the next time Minnesota/Wisconsin/Minnesota Duluth all have to play one another in the NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament to save a flight or two. Those years where it was a #2 vs. #5 overall look 100x worse now.)

6. How does the committee sort out Michigan/Boston University/Minnesota Duluth?

Michigan, Minnesota Duluth, Boston University in that order. 

Selfishly, I am a fan of Michigan and Minnesota Duluth playing one another on the ten-year tournament anniversary of the two meeting for the 2011 NCAA national championship.

7. How badly does Quinnipiac's loss to St. Lawrence hurt the Bobcats? Does it cost QU an at-large bid?

Turns out the committee kept Quinnipiac in the above tier, or just outside, as the Bobcats were slotted right below Boston University.

8. Who gets the last at-large bid?

Notre Dame. Well, Omaha first. Then Notre Dame.

St. Lawrence dropping out slotted in the Fighting Irish, which should be something to watch out for in a tournament filled with enough party where the final at-large bid has won three of the last seven NCAA Tournaments. (Only slightly joking: Road Notre Dame is a tough out.)

The Fighting Irish, and Omaha and Bemidji State before that, were beneficiaries of the committee putting record against teams in the NCAA Tournament ahead of other factors. Notre Dame was 4-7-1 against the other three Big Ten NCAA Tournament teams. Bemidji State was 4-5-2. Omaha, meanwhile, had a 3-6-1 record against the top-three NCHC teams compared to Denver's 2-9-0 record.

Providence had a 1-5-2 record against the three Hockey East NCAA Tournament teams (and the one win came against BU), which dropped the Friars below the "in" crowd.

So what did we learn?

We learned quite a few things.

We learned that the selection committee values wins against top teams more than the Pairwise. There used to be a "Teams Under Consideration" component that played a role in ranking, but it has not appeared in recent years.

We learned limiting travel is overrated.

We learned the WCHA can get in three teams just in time for the CCHA. We learned Hockey East can in three teams just in time for the ECAC to get back all its teams.

We learned the Hockey Gods have a sense of humor with Minnesota Duluth-Michigan, Minnesota State-Quinnipiac, and Boston College-Notre Dame.

We learned gifting teams by part of the country was not something the selection committee wanted to do. When tasked with comparing one another, the region did not matter.

We learned that for all the fears of the Big Ten being such a powerful conference and taking over the sport, it was a big surprise to see the league get everything to go its way. Two of four No. 1 seeds, the last No. 2 seed, and a fourth team for the first time over the fourth team from other conferences. The selection committee certainly thought highly of the Big Ten this season.

And we learned that, while flawed at times, the Pairwise rankings and knowing the criteria in advance are things the college hockey world needs. Maybe with some changes taking the good from this year to improve the flaws, however, it wasn't the worst thing to have a one-year break to better appreciate what we already have.

Thank you everyone for following along with bracketology this year.

Sunday, March 21, 2021

Final Projected Bracket + 8 Questions The Selection Committee Will Answer

Welcome to Selection Sunday for the 2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament. All conference tournament games are done. All championships are awarded. At 7 pm ET on ESPNU, the 16 teams playing will be announced.

St. Lawrence, who entered the weekend with four wins all season and has 24 in the past four seasons, is playing NCAA Tournament hockey. The Saints burst some bubbles with an upset of ECAC regular-season champion Quinnipiac, winning 3-2 in overtime to take home the Whitelaw Cup and the conference's automatic bid.

AIC will represent Atlantic Hockey for a second time after defeating Canisius 3-2. The Yellow Jackets will put its "never lost a first-round game" record on the line.

UMass claims its first-ever Hockey East conference tournament championship with a 1-0 win over UMass Lowell.

Finally, Lake Superior State, the second WCHA school in as many men's hockey tournaments to end a long NCAA Tournament drought, enters its first NCAA Tournament since 1996 with 12 wins in its last 14 games. The Lakers beat Northern Michigan 6-3 thanks to an Ashton Calder hat trick to take the Jeff Sauer Cup as WCHA Conference Tournament champions.

The four join Minnesota (Big Ten) and North Dakota (NCHC) as the six automatic bids.

I am going to switch up the format a little bit, placing the final projected bracket and explanation at the bottom of the blog. As much fun as it can be to discuss where teams go and why they go there, this year's teams and placements put a lot more up in the air. It's important to understand the subjective decisions the NCAA selection committee will be making, along with questions that the selection committee will answer.  

What I am doing is building a foundation for how the committee will select conferences and teams.  My bracket reflects that. It would be a big surprise to not see 13 teams in the NCAA Tournament, leaving nine fighting for the final three at-large bids.

Yet the selection committee has free reign to paint the walls however they want without any math to hold them back. Anyone saying they know how the rooms will turn out is doing nothing besides making assumptions based on precedent and evidence. If the selection committee answers differently than I do - and they could, as several of these are subjective - it will cause an effect in flipping matchups.

These are the questions that will shape the bracket. How the committee answers change everything.

1. Omaha, Denver, or both?

Of all the decisions, this is the one I have been going back and forth on the longest. The NCHC has a good case to get a fourth conference bid among the final spots. Both Omaha and Denver have good cases to earn that bid. It's unlikely, although not impossible, the league gets a fifth and both get in, meaning the decision rests on keeping one team in and one team out.

If you want to see each team's case (along with several other bubble teams), click here.

At the same time, if Denver gets the nod over Omaha, it changes the setup of placing the No. 1 seeds. The Pioneers host the Loveland regional. Rather than placing the second-best Western No. 1 seed there and sending the third-best East, it makes sense to swap those two around.

2. Bemidji State, Bowling Green, both, or neither?

Lake Superior State will join Minnesota State as the WCHA's final men's hockey NCAA Tournament participants before the majority of the conference reforms as a reborn CCHA. Can the WCHA get a third team in? Bemidji State and Bowling Green each have a case for a spot over one another - Bemidji has the quality wins while making the WCHA Conference Semifinal and BGSU is ahead of the Beavers in the Pairwise when comparing the two teams in the same conference. However, it's no guarantee one gets a spot for the other. The league has not gotten three teams in the NCAA Tournament since the last college hockey realignment in 2013.

3. Providence, UMass Lowell, UConn, or how does the East/West split go?

UMass Lowell losing the Hockey East championship game is good news for Providence's chances. The Friars would have needed a fifth Hockey East bid or the committee thinking it deserved to go over Boston University. Instead, the two and technically Connecticut are in contention with one another for a fourth Hockey East spot. Like the NCHC, it's likely one gets the spot and one stays home.

What makes the Hockey East decision interesting also comes with the decision of how many Eastern teams get into the NCAA Tournament. The committee can go anywhere from 8-8 to 12-4 West/East (although both would be quite the extreme). It's likely to land somewhere between 9/7 West/East and 10/6. With the number of eastern teams, how that split goes will determine who gets into the Big Skate. That's a thing, right? No?

4. Can a second team from a conference get a No. 1 seed? Does Minnesota State's loss to Northern Michigan knock the Mavericks out of the top four?

A question I have been debating for much of the last month is how the four No. 1 seeds will be determined. Both Wisconsin and UMass can make arguments for being one of the four best teams in the country. The Badgers won the Big Ten regular-season title and have a 3-2 record against Minnesota. The Minutemen took home the Hockey East conference tournament title and has a 16-5-4 record. However, both are in the position of being the conference's second team. Would the committee place a conference's second team over another conference's top team in a year with limited non-conference play? 

At the same time, where does Minnesota State's 5-1 loss to Northern Michigan leave the Mavericks? Prior there was a solid argument for keeping the team ahead of even Minnesota as the second or third overall seed. It's a tougher argument now yet how much stock should one loss - even if it's a final statement - be taken into account?

5. Does the committee go with bracket integrity or try and limit travel as much as possible?

Another unknown is whether or not bracket integrity or limiting travel will prevail in a pandemic year. The criteria are vague enough where anything can be justified. Will the committee move around pieces to make Fargo a region of teams that can drive, or does that not matter? Or maybe it ends up being a compromise of the two. Either way, I can see it going either way.

6. How does the committee sort out Michigan/Boston University/Minnesota Duluth?

There is a tier of teams that can be safely considered the third-best teams in their respective conferences: Michigan (Big Ten), Boston University (Hockey East), and Minnesota Duluth (NCHC). All three conferences should expect to receive at least three bids. How the committee sorts out these three will go a long way to making the bracket and showing what they thought of each conference's strengths and weaknesses. It would not be a surprise to see one of these teams grab a No. 2 seed and play another one of the group. Which one? I'm not sure.

7. How badly does Quinnipiac's loss to St. Lawrence hurt the Bobcats? Does it cost QU an at-large bid?

Before the Bobcats lost in overtime Saturday, I had Quinnipiac in the above tier, making it four teams. That is no longer the case and it safe to say QU is no longer a safe lock to make the NCAA Tournament. While Quinnipiac's season and location as an Eastern team would favor the Bobcats to get one of the final three spots, it should not come as a surprise if 7 pm ET comes and goes without Quinnipiac hearing its name called. How far down the Bobcats sit if Quinnipiac is in - as a No. 3 or No. 4 seed - will also be something to watch.

At the very least, St. Lawrence's upset win, along with AIC taking the AHA title, brings an end to the possibility of a second Atlantic Hockey team making the NCAA Tournament. Additional eastern bids are coming from either a second ECAC team, or a fourth and/or fifth Hockey East program. Which leads to...

8. Who gets the last at-large bid?

No spot will be contested like the final at-large bid. Several teams and conferences can make a good case for it. There is the third WCHA team, the fourth and/or fifth NCHC/Hockey East schools, the aforementioned Quinnipiac, and Notre Dame as a fourth Big Ten team. 

It's surprising how little attention the Fighting Irish have gotten as a bubble team given the team's record, resume (road sweeps over Michigan and Minnesota), and status regularly being on national TV. Location does not help - Notre Dame is a flight for all four regionals and doesn't quite give an Eastern split (although ND used to play in Hockey East) - but a Big Ten quarterfinal loss to Penn State and not having competition for the fourth spot has kept the Fighting Irish on the side of bubble consideration. 

It should not be the biggest surprise if Notre Dame does get into the NCAA Tournament. Still, all six conferences will be going out of their way to get an extra bid, leaving the possibilities for whose season continues up in the air. The politicking should be fierce.

The Final Bracket

For getting through all eight questions, here's your reward. The final bracket!

If you need a refresher on what subjective criteria the NCAA Tournament selection committee will use to choose the 16 teams, click here

Otherwise, the work showing how and why follows below. The six automatic bids are shown in italics.

Fargo Regional
1. North Dakota vs. 4. St. Lawrence
2. Michigan vs. 3. Minnesota Duluth

Loveland Regional
1. Minnesota vs. 4. AIC
2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Lake Superior State

Albany Regional
1. Boston College vs. 4. Omaha
2. Wisconsin vs. 3. Boston University

Bridgeport Regional
1. Minnesota State vs. 4. UMass Lowell
2. UMass vs. 3. Quinnipiac

How Did We Get Here:

Two swaps and some tough selections leave the final projected bracket in a good place.

To make my bracket, I used the applicable parts of a normal year to create seeds and rankings. With little crossover play, I ranked the teams inside each conference against one another first and went from there to rank each conference spot. Other rules followed include host teams must play at the host regional and avoiding inter-conference first-round matchups. Even though it is a completely different selection committee, I also took a few of the lessons from the NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament selections (hello win/loss percentage) for creating the bracket.

So here are my (subjective) seeding bands:

No. 1 seeds: North Dakota, Minnesota, Boston College, Minnesota State

No. 2 seeds: Massachusetts, Wisconsin, St. Cloud State, Michigan

No. 3 seeds: Minnesota Duluth, Boston University, Lake Superior State, Quinnipiac

No. 4 seeds: Omaha, UMass Lowell, AIC, St. Lawrence

For the final three at-large bids, I went with 1) Quinnipiac as a second ECAC team to help make a 9/7 West-East balance, 2) Omaha over Denver as a fourth NCHC bid, and 3) UMass Lowell over Providence and a half-dozen other teams. Apologies to Bemidji State, Notre Dame, Denver, Providence and others for just missing the bracket. 

Michigan earned the top spot in their tier, no Denver means Minnesota heads to Loveland, and I went with a compromise bracket between integrity and travel. Minnesota State gets the final No. 1 seed, however, it comes with the toughest path and in the same regional as the top No. 2 seed (Massachusetts).

From there, the next step with the seeds in place automatically places host institutions in the regional it hosts if any made the field. Only North Dakota did, which places the Fighting Hawks in the Fargo Regional. (Other active hosts that can be placed if the teams make the NCAA Tournament besides North Dakota are Denver for Loveland and Sacred Heart for Bridgeport.) With the other No. 1 seeds, Minnesota goes west to Loveland, Boston College to Albany - mostly because there are fans allowed since the Eagles sit perfectly between the two Eastern Regionals - and Minnesota State goes to Bridgeport.

After that, the next step fills the bracket to avoid inter-conference first-round matchups. No. 1 seeds must play No. 4 seeds and No. 2 seeds must play No. 3 seeds. On a (subjectively) straight 1-16, 2-15, etc. bracket, the only inter-conference matchup was Boston College-UMass Lowell. Swapping the RiverHawks with Omaha solves that issue.

Still, there is a lone swap for travel purposes between Boston University and Lake Superior State. The Lakers must fly anyways, so it makes sense to send the WCHA conference tournament champions west and keep BU East in Albany. St. Cloud State cannot go to Fargo since it would require an inter-conference matchup with Minnesota Duluth.

I like this bracket because it holds true even if the committee decides to put different teams in the final at-large spots. Another Western team such as Bemidji State or Bowling Green to make a 10/6 West-East split takes away the one inter-conference matchup, but the bones remain in place. If Providence is the fourth Hockey East team instead of UMass Lowell, the Friars can be placed in the same spot. If Denver is the fourth NCHC team, Minnesota heads to Bridgeport to protect the No. 2 overall seed. Minnesota State heads to Loveland with two swaps: 1) The Gophers now face Lowell instead of AIC to avoid the all-Hockey East matchup, and 2) Wisconsin-Lake Superior State and UMass-Quinnipiac switch regions with one another to save flights. 

At the end of the day, how the committee answers the eight questions will determine the path. I've answered them one way how I can see the committee choosing. We now wait to see what the group decides.

Nuts and bolts:

Teams By conference: 

4- Hockey East, NCHC
3- Big Ten
2- ECAC, WCHA
1- Atlantic Hockey

In: St. Lawrence, UMass Lowell
Out: Bemidji State, Providence

First Four Out: Bemidji State, Notre Dame, Denver, Providence

Have any questions? Agree with the bracket? Disagree? Wondering why a team is in/out or where to send those pitchforks and torches? Leave it in the comments.