Enough parity exists where at least one No. 4 seed has upset a No. 1 seed in every NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament since 2005. The unexpected is more than expected. It is no surprise, in an era where the final at-large bid has won three of the last seven national titles, to see any of the 16 teams reach the Frozen Four.
Makes bracket challenges fun and impossible, even before playing in a global pandemic that already cost one team its chance for a title.
So with that in mind, I thought it would be best to preview the 2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament by showcasing two non-pandemic extremes. First, why each team can win the national championship. Second, why each team will be upset and lose in round 1. Add three players to watch and a "chip on their shoulders" ranking (1 being none and 10 being wanting to prove the world wrong) and there's a preview that covers the bases for your bracket challenge.
Yesterday (Wednesday) featured the Fargo regional. Tomorrow (Friday) will feature the Loveland regional while the Albany regional goes up later today (Thursday).
Bridgeport Regional
No. 1 Seed: Wisconsin
Why the Badgers will win it all: Two words: Cole. Caufield.
Need more? Caufield, with 28 goals in 30 games, is on pace to have one of the best goal-scoring seasons in the last 20 years of college hockey. The sophomore forward needs the tiniest of openings to change a game and makes an impact on both sides of the ice. Likewise, Dylan Holloway has taken major steps in his sophomore season to become a top collegiate player in his own right. Few NCAA Tournament teams can match Wisconsin (20-9-1) there.
Still need more? Okay. Tony Granato has solved his goaltending issue with the Cameron Rowe-Robbie Beydoun goalie platoon. Both newcomers (Rowe a freshman, Beydoun a graduate transfer from Michigan Tech), are stopping pucks at above a .920% save percentage. The Badgers enter the NCAA Tournament 11-2-1 since January 29th. With high-end talent and a number of upperclassmen leading the way, Wisconsin went from worst to first in the Big Ten. Despite early losses, Wisconsin is finally being that team many were waiting for UW to be - one with the pieces of a national title contender.
Why the Badgers will be upset in round 1: Wisconsin's opponent has seen top offenses and gone Jon Taffer on them. Bemidji State is the only team to defeat Minnesota State (7th in goals per game - Wisconsin sits 3rd) twice this season, finding success shutting down the Mavericks and going toe to toe offensively in victory. The Beavers also went 3-1-0 against Bowling Green (9th in goals per game).
It would not be a surprise to see Tom Serratore's team find a way to slow down the speedy and skilled Badgers team playing its first NCAA Tournament game. It's a different style of play than Wisconsin played against all season in the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Wisconsin enters giving up a combined nine goals in an overtime win against Penn State and loss to Minnesota. That opening NCAA game brings strange results.
Chip on their shoulder ranking: 4. The Badgers seem hungry in its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2014. This is what Caufield came back for when he had the opportunity to turn pro last season. However, it is tough to say Wisconsin is not getting the respect it deserves between earning the final No. 1 seed over other teams (including UMass) and Caufield being the presumptive Hobey Baker nominee.
Three Players To Watch: #8 F- Cole Caufield (MTL), #4 F- Dylan Holloway (EDM), #21 D- Ty Emberson (ARI)
No. 2 Seed: Massachusetts
Why the Minutemen will win it all: Two words. Cale....wait sorry, this isn't 2019.
Two more years of experience brings a more mature, experienced Massachusetts (16-5-4) team compared to the 2019 national runner-up. The top three scorers, defender Marc Del Gaizo and goaltenders Filip Lindberg and Matt Murray are all upperclassmen. Greg Carvel has a veteran-laden group, which can be needed to go far in the NCAA Tournament.
At the same time, there is plenty of talent. Bobby Trivigno was the Walter Brown Award winner as the best American playing in New England. Carson Gicewicz put up 13 goals while Zac Jones has been one of the best all-around defenders in college hockey on a defense that allows the second-lowest goals per game. Massachusetts has found different ways to win. The Hockey East conference tournament champions are undefeated (14-0-1) when scoring the first goal. Entering the tournament on a 10-game unbeaten streak (7-0-3) and it is no surprise to see New Mass being a trendy new national championship pick.
Why the Minutemen will be upset in round 1: It's not 2019. Sequels do not always match the highs of the original and it is easy to see Massachusetts come up against a tougher path to the Frozen Four. Lake Superior State is the first western school UMass will see all season and offers a different matchup than the team has been seeing. The Lakers are also undefeated (13-0-1) when scoring first, however, the team has a better record than Massachusetts when playing from behind.
Then there is the fact Massachusetts went 1-4-0 against the two other Hockey East NCAA Tournament teams, Boston College and Boston University. (The record does go to 3-4-2 when including Providence, who was the first team out.) Credit to the Minutemen for beating the teams they need to because it is not easy, but it's a worse record against top teams compared to those in the same tier.
Chip on their shoulder ranking: 8. Massachusetts has a few factors to give the Minutemen a chip on their shoulder, whether it is not getting the No. 1 seed, being the only Eastern team in an east regional, or being doubted after Makar, Mario Ferraro and John Leonard departed early. Anyone surprised at this point just hasn't been paying attention.
Three Players To Watch: #24 D- Zac Jones (NYR), #35 G- Filip Lindberg (MIN), #8 F- Bobby Trivigno (undrafted)
No. 3 Seed: Lake Superior State
Why the Lakers will win it all: Furthering the theme of the Bridgeport regional, WCHA Conference Tournament champion Lake Superior State (19-6-3) enters the NCAA Tournament on a bit of a hot streak. Why not continue?
Damon Whitten's team played its way into the NCAA Tournament, winning six straight and 12 of 14 en route to the Lakers' first tournament appearance since 1996. Ashton Calder has a pair of March hat tricks among his 15 goals this season. The offense is at a high point of late, sitting at 2/3 of a goal higher over the last 10 games than the season average.
Defensively, Lake Superior State has a Mike Richter Award finalist in goal in Marek Mitens. The Lakers senior is sixth nationally with a .933% save percentage and tough for opposing offenses to solve. Since the winning ways began in mid-February, LSSU has allowed more than two goals only twice.
Why the Lakers will lose in round 1: Perhaps it's fitting that Lake Superior State plays Massachusetts because LSSU faces a team who shares a lot of similarities, several of which can be seen in the UMass section. Both are playing its best hockey. Both won conference tournament championships. Both can win games with goaltending and defense. Both have not lost when scoring the first goal of the game.
From a Lakers perspective, it also means Lake Superior State faces a team whose similar strengths are higher nationally, at least on the stat sheet. The Minutemen have allowed less than two goals per game on the season and a slightly better goal margin (+21) over the last 10 games than LSSU (+19). Massachusetts has the experience edge as well, which can come into play when the two teams face off.
Chip on their shoulder ranking: 3. Yes, there's the "WCHA does not get enough respect" card all three conference schools can play this season. However, there are three WCHA teams and Lake Superior State is a No. 3 seed. Add in the fact this is the first NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament appearance for LSSU in 25 years - Jeff Jackson coached the last team before starting up the USNTDP - and the return of a 90s dynasty makes for a fun story without the chip.
Three Players To Watch: #30 G- Marek Mitens (undrafted), #16 F- Ashton Calder (undrafted), #26 F- Pete Veillette (undrafted)
No. 4 Seed: Bemidji State
Why the Beavers will win it all: Playing in a regional situated two blocks from the P.T. Barnum Museum, Bemidji State (15-9-3), the school hailing from Paul Bunyan's fictional hometown, is no stranger to the circus that comes with shocking the world. Tom Serratore's shining moment in his two decades being behind the Nothern Minnesota bench is leading the No. 16 overall seed Beavers to the 2009 Frozen Four, winning two games by a combined 9-2 score.
This season, BSU has been at its best when playing against the WCHA's best. Goaltender Zach Driscoll is the latest in a run of Beavers goalies who can steal games, starting 26 of 27 games and entering the NCAA Tournament with a .924% save percentage.
The team thrives defensively in low-scoring games, winning five of 15 games this season by a 2-0 or 2-1 score (excluding an empty-net goal). BSU won another 4-1 while being outshot 36-10. In a tournament where every goal matters, being comfortable playing in that environment can be a recipe for history repeating.
Why the Beavers will lose in round 1: The low-scoring defense will be tested by Wisconsin's high-scoring offense. As good as the WCHA's top offenses have been, Bemidji State has not faced an individual player like Cole Caufield and Dylan Holloway. Trying to stop one opens up opportunities for the other. With Caufield averaging almost a goal per game, it will take an elite defensive performance. While BSU has been at its best in the third period (+9 goal margin), it might be too late against the Badgers.
Bemidji State plays as a team to the sum of its parts compared to a group of individuals. It shows as BSU features the lowest goals per game of any NCAA Tournament team playing (St. Lawrence is lower), with its 2.81 average being 29th nationally. Ethan Somoza is the only Beaver with double-digit goals on a team that already played 27.
Chip on their shoulder ranking: 7. This was going to be a 3 like LSSU, but a pair of misspellings in the NCAA Tournament Selection Show puts "Bimidji State" up to a 5 for the Beavers' first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2010. Add in being on the bubble and getting in to the surprise of some, along with being the only team without an NHL Draft pick, and it goes up to a 7 for Bemidji State.
Three Players To Watch: #33 G- Zach Driscoll (undrafted), #14 F- Alex Ierullo (undrafted), #9 F- Ethan Somoza
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