Enough parity exists in the NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament where at least one No. 4 seed has upset a No. 1 seed in every tournament played since 2005. The unexpected is more than expected. It is no surprise, in an era where the final at-large bid has won three of the last seven national titles, to see any of the 16 teams reach the Frozen Four.
Makes bracket challenges fun and impossible, even before playing in a global pandemic.
So with that in mind, I thought it would be best to preview the 2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament by showcasing two non-pandemic extremes. First, why each team can win the national championship. Second, why each team will be upset and lose in round 1. Add three players to watch and a "chip on their shoulders" ranking (1 being none and 10 being wanting to prove the world wrong) and there's a preview that covers the bases for your bracket challenge.
This is the fourth and final regional preview. Wednesday featured the Fargo Regional. Yesterday (Thursday) featured both the Bridgeport Regional and Albany Regional.
Loveland Regional
No. 1 Seed: Minnesota
Why the Gophers will win it all: Minnesota (23-6-0) plays disciplined hockey and has several paths to victory in a testing tournament that culminates the Centennial Season of Gopher Hockey with a regional in the Centennial State.
Whether it is the goal-scoring consistency of Sampo Ranta, who has 18 goals, the depth of seven players with 20+ points, or goaltender Jack LaFontaine's Hobey Baker top-ten finalist performance this season (.936% save percentage and five shutouts), Minnesota makes itself a tough out. The Gophers continued last season's second-half push into a perfect 10-0-0 start before the rest of the conference made headway.
The Gophers won three games in three days - including a pair of comeback OT wins - to take home the Big Ten conference tournament championship. Each game seemed to have a different hero - Bryce Brodzinski and Blake McLaughlin playing his best hockey are two examples - which speaks to the depth on Bob Motzko's team. A young blue line full of puck movers has played well above its age. Minnesota earned its No. 1 seed, playing like the team Motzko envisioned and recruited when taking over the program three years ago.
Why the Gophers will be upset in round 1: Minnesota gets better as the weekend goes on, which is both the sign of an elite team and a bad sign in a single-elimination tournament where it takes one bad night to end a season.
The Gophers lost four of its six games in the first game of a two-game series. In the Big Ten tournament, it was Michigan State who made Minnesota sweat in the opening game. Historically, Minnesota has struggled outside the state of Minnesota in the NCAA Tournament, having not won a regional game outside MN since 2007 (the last time the Gophers played in Colorado). While the Gophers are undefeated when scoring first, Omaha did defeat top-ranked North Dakota twice in six games.
Chip on their shoulder ranking: 6. I'm sure Minnesota will have a chip on its shoulder after the way the Big Ten regular-season ended and returning to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017. The Gophers play well when having one, but the team does not have the same argument as others in this region.
Three Players To Watch: #45 G- Jack LaFontaine (CAR), #58 F- Sampo Ranta, #9 F- Sammy Walker (TBL)
No. 2 Seed: Minnesota State
Why the (Purple) Mavericks will win it all: No goaltender has shut teams down like Minnesota State (20-4-1) goalie Dryden McKay this season.
The junior leads the nation with nine shutouts - the gap between first and second would be tied for fourth - in 23 starts and a 1.40 GAA. His outstanding play is to be expected to the point where the few games teams have been able to score multiple goals stand out for the accomplishment.
It also helps the Mavericks control possession like no other team. On average, Minnesota State outshoots opponents by over 15 shots per game. (Second place is ~10 shots per game.) Mike Hastings continues to reload with diamonds in the rough, with Cade Borchardt, Nathan Smith and Akiro Hirose as underclassmen shining through. Another newbie is senior Todd Burgess, who transferred from RPI, to go with a large senior class that missed a chance at redemption last season. Minnesota State's consistency is on a level few can match recently. It would be fitting for the Mavericks to end with a reward.
Why the Mavericks will be upset in round 1: Do you know the history of Minnesota State in the NCAA Tournament? If yes, just skip to the next section.
If not, well...the Mavericks remain looking for an elusive NCAA Tournament win. The past two attempts saw Minnesota State with multi-goal leads early before eventually losing. Again, this is a new year and one that does not see Providence in Providence, but the legend of the first win grows bigger with each passing tournament. Maybe that game already happened after Northern Michigan jumped out to a 5-0 lead within two periods in the WCHA conference tournament semifinal. Maybe it was just a sign to come.
Chip on their shoulder ranking: 10. Easy 10. The history, the seeing last season's tournament canceled, the not being a No. 1 seed this year despite running through the WCHA and having the best record nationally, easterners questioning the WCHA, the fact it's been 20 years and Mankato State still slips through...all of it is enough to place the Mavericks at the maximum chip on their shoulders. You've earned it.
Three Players To Watch: #8 F- Nathan Smith (WPG), #5 F- Jake Jaremko (Undrafted), #29 G- Dryden McKay (Undrafted)
No. 3 Seed: Quinnipiac
Why the Bobcats will win it all: Perhaps because Quinnipiac (17-7-4) spent the season playing in a 4...then 3...then 2 team league, several QU players seem to be flying under the radar. Rand Pecknold continues to recruit well. The team is fourth in goal margin. Ty Smilanic had one of the best rookie seasons nationally, scoring 14 goals in 28 games. Peter DiLiberatore returned, being an all-around top D, while Wyatt Bongiovanni returns after missing much of the season. He has 5 goals in 8 games played.
The most underrated player nationally might be senior Odeen Tufto, who sits second in points with 45. The Mat Barzal of New Haven County creates plays from the tiniest of openings. Then there's Zach Metsa, whose 26 points leads all blueliners nationally, and Keith Petruzzelli having a Mike Richter Award finalist season.
There was a lot to like about this year's Quinnipiac team when it was March 2020. Weird year aside, there is still a lot to like about this year's Quinnipiac team's chances.
Why the Bobcats will lose in round 1: A combination of the unknown and known.
Quinnipiac enters the NCAA Tournament coming off its most embarrassing loss of the season, losing the ECAC championship in OT to St. Lawrence. Almost every team has a bad loss, however, and QU is 7-2-1 in its last 10 games. Still, with the limited and strange schedule the Bobcats played - QU went 2-2-2 against Clarkson - it's tough to know where Quinnipiac stacks up against the rest of the country.
For the known, this upcoming game features the only two teams sharing a common opponent. Both Minnesota State and Quinnipiac faced Bowling Green. While the Mavericks made quick work of the Falcons, sweeping the WCHA foe, BGSU swept Quinnipiac. If that is any indication, then it might be an easy night for the Mavericks.
Chip on their shoulder ranking: 7.5. Shouldering the weight of the ECAC and wanting to prove QU belongs is enough of a chip on their shoulder to push Quinnipiac into the upper tier.
Three Players To Watch: #29 F- Odeen Tufto (undrafted), #96 F- Ty Smilanic (FLA), #3 D- Peter DiLiberatore (VGK)
No. 4 Seed: Omaha
Why the (Red) Mavericks will win it all: In the words of the great Mike Eidelbess, "And then there's Omaha..."
The 16th and final profile comes from a team whose last NCAA Tournament appearance (2015) resulted in an unexpected Frozen Four run. Don't count Omaha (14-10-1) this time around either. The Mavericks own a pair of wins over North Dakota and have been a tough out for any opponent. The team is 11-1-0 when scoring first this season.
Omaha's run to the 2021 NCAA Tournament comes from a consistent season, beating the teams it should. Isaiah Saville has been the goaltender Omaha expected when he came on campus as the USHL Goaltender of the Year. The junior line of Tyler Weiss-Chase Primeau-Taylor Ward leads the way offensively although Mike Gabinet's group is more than a one-line team. Five different players have eight or more goals.
Why the Mavericks will lose in round 1: Of the teams still playing, no one has struggled of late quite like the Mavericks.
Omaha, who went 3-6-1 against the other three remaining NCHC teams, enters the NCAA Tournament having lost four of its last five games, including an NCHC Quarterfinal appearance against Denver. In fairness, the other four games came against No. 1 overall seed North Dakota, but it's not the bit of confidence any team would like when it comes to the biggest stage of the year.
Including Notre Dame, 15 of the top 16 teams in goal margin over the past 10 games made the NCAA Tournament. The lone tournament team not among the top 16? Omaha, who sits tied for 31st (-4). The Mavericks are also one of three teams still playing with a negative shot margin and the one with the worst. Facing a Minnesota team who picks up momentum the longer it plays, that might be a sign of trouble.
Chip on their shoulder ranking: 7. Being the fourth seed can be enough reason to have a chip on your shoulder and wanting to prove teams wrong. Entering the NCAA Tournament the way the Mavericks did up the factor to at least a 7.
Three Players to Watch: #40 F- Tyler Weiss (COL), #31 G- Isaiah Saville (VGK), #17 F- Taylor Ward (undrafted)
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