Bracketology: 2021 NCAA Tournament Men's Hockey Bracket Version 2.0

Conference tournament season is among us.

Atlantic Hockey began its postseason yesterday. Sadly, Annie Serratore did not help Air Force this time around (although in fairness, things have been downhill since her appearances last season). By this time next week, all six conferences will be underway in one form or another. 

This makes the final bracket of the regular season all the more important as teams get their final chance to make an impression on the selection committee. Selection Sunday, March 21, is one week from this Sunday.

If you need a refresher on what subjective criteria the NCAA Tournament selection committee will use to choose the 16 teams, click here.  

Otherwise, here is the latest projected bracket. The work showing how and why follows below.

The Bracket Version 2.0

Bridgeport Regional:

1. Boston College vs. 4. AIC

2. Massachusetts vs. 3. Quinnipiac

Fargo Regional:

1. North Dakota vs. 4. Bowling Green

2. Michigan vs. 3. Minnesota Duluth

Loveland Regional:

1. Minnesota State vs. 4. Clarkson

2. Wisconsin vs. 3. Omaha

Albany Regional

1. Minnesota vs. 4. UConn

2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Boston University

How Did We Get Here?

Some lessons, some losses, some swaps, and some waiting for conference tournament games to make decisions (hopefully) easier.

To make my bracket, I used the applicable parts of a normal year to create seeds and rankings. With little crossover play, I ranked the teams inside each conference against one another first and went from there. Other rules followed include host teams must play at the host regional and avoiding inter-conference first-round matchups. Even though it is a completely different selection committee, I also took a few of the lessons from this weekend's women's hockey selections (hello win/loss percentage) for creating the bracket.

One caveat: Since no team can earn an automatic bid before conference tournaments end, this bracketology assumes the eligible team* with the highest overall winning percentage in each of the six conferences earns the automatic bid. Those teams are AIC (Atlantic Hockey), Minnesota (Big Ten)**, Quinnipiac (ECAC), Boston College (Hockey East), North Dakota (NCHC), and Minnesota State (WCHA). 

*Eligible teams must have played 13 games
**Please note for the Big Ten that while Wisconsin won the Big Ten regular-season title due to the highest winning percentage in conference games, a non-conference loss to Arizona State puts the Badgers below Minnesota in overall winning percentage.

So here are my (subjective) seeding bands:

No. 1 seeds: Boston College, North Dakota, Minnesota State, Minnesota

No. 2 seeds: Wisconsin, St. Cloud State, Michigan, Massachusetts

No. 3 seeds: Minnesota Duluth, Quinnipiac, Boston University, Omaha

No. 4 seeds: UConn, Clarkson, Bowling Green, AIC

With the seeds in place, the next step automatically places host institutions of each regional there if any made the field. Only North Dakota did, which places the Fighting Hawks in the Fargo Regional. (Other active hosts that can be placed if the teams make the NCAA Tournament besides North Dakota are Denver for Loveland and Sacred Heart for Bridgeport.) 

After that, the next step fills the bracket to avoid inter-conference first-round matchups. No. 1 seeds must play No. 4 seeds and No. 2 seeds must play No. 3 seeds. On a (subjectively) straight 1-16, 2-15, etc. bracket, there are no inter-conference matchups. Hurray!

There are, however, a few swaps that can be made to limit travel. Minnesota Duluth is in Bridgeport and Quinnipiac in Fargo. Swapping both with one another reduces a pair of flights without creating an inter-conference matchup. Let's do that.

It would be great to get BU and Omaha in their respective regions as well. Swapping both with one another would mean an all-NCHC matchup so that is not an option. Putting Minnesota State's quarter of the bracket in Albany, as was the case last week, is another option. A flight is a flight. Every team needs to fly to Loveland and both No. 1 seeds need to fly to Albany. It would save one flight. 

However, if we want to keep Minnesota State in Loveland, swapping the SCSU-BU and Wisconsin-Omaha matchups with one another both save a flight (two if Omaha can drive) and creates original matchups with four teams from four conferences in each region. That seems to be a better option this week, one which does not punish any team more than the other.

On the subject of lessons and locks and locations...

A few subjective seeding decisions pop out, namely Minnesota over Wisconsin as the top-ranked Big Ten team and Bowling Green over Bemidji State/Lake Superior State/Michigan Tech as the second-ranked WCHA team. UConn handily beating Providence and getting to .500 makes that an easier switch, with the two teams and Northeastern all within a game of .500. Arguments exist for all three scenarios, but if I am taking any lessons from the women's hockey selection committee, record matters more than the strength of schedule or head-to-head. 20-6-0 (Minnesota) takes a few steps over 19-8-1 (Wisconsin) despite the Badgers going 3-1-0 against Minnesota. Bowling Green's 19-8-1 holds clear over Bemidji State's 13-8-3. So there you go.

The good news? The next week and a half give plenty of time for teams to prove otherwise.

What changed since Version 1.0?

Since last week, I am confident enough to add three locks: Quinnipiac, a third Big Ten bid/Michigan, and a fourth NCHC bid to the previous list of locks. Spreading at-large bids across conferences makes me more confident that Quinnipiac gets in regardless of the ECAC tournament. It becomes more important for another eastern team to make the NCAA Tournament and the Bobcats are the beneficiary.

I would say the same for Michigan if not for the location. The Wolverines are seeded high enough where even if a Notre Dame or Penn State wins the Big Ten's automatic bid, it would likely mean the conference gets a fourth bid (likely instead of Hockey East's fourth-ranked team or WCHA's second). Splitting with Minnesota this past weekend leaves Michigan, the Gophers, and Wisconsin all have the exact same records against one another.

It's not a case of slotting another team into Michigan's spot and the Wolverines would a better argument than the other two. There is a large gap between the top three Big Ten schools and Notre Dame/Penn State tier. At worst three teams get in from the Big Ten. However, the scenario that took the Gopher women's team out exists for Michigan if the selection committee wants to spread out by location and conference. So while I would be shocked, I am erroring on the side of caution and saying it's the third Big Ten bid that is a lock.

The same can be said about the fourth NCHC bid, where Omaha sits a tier above Denver/Western Michigan. As good and deserving as the Mavericks have been, I find it difficult to see the committee giving a fifth bid to the conference.

How about limiting travel and splitting East/West?

Speaking of spreading out locations and conferences, there is also the matter of whether or not location matters more. My bracket has been under the assumption that bracket integrity matters as much as it can in a subjective season. It also features three Western teams as the four No. 1 seeds and three more as the four No. 2 seeds. 

Obviously, that hurts the goal of limiting travel. A 9/7 West/East spit makes sense given the number of teams in each this season. With limited non-conference crossover, and no Pairwise rankings to adhere to, would the committee go for a straight East/West split as much as possible?

I'm not sure, but it is a possibility that cannot be overlooked. The bracket is subjective. If we want to go further and limit travel while tinkering with bracket integrity, it's possible to have subjective fun. Here's an example of how that might look this week.

Bridgeport Regional:

1. Boston College vs. 4. AIC

2. Quinnipiac vs. 3. Boston University

Fargo Regional:

1. North Dakota vs. 4. Bowling Green

2. Minnesota vs. 3. Minnesota Duluth

Loveland Regional

1. Minnesota State vs. 4. Omaha

2. St. Cloud State vs. 3. Michigan

Albany Regional

1. Massachusetts vs. 4. Clarkson

2. Wisconsin vs. 3. UConn

This bracket features six flights instead of seven - the four Loveland teams, Bowling Green and Wisconsin (who both have to fly to all four regionals) - it would be five if Bemidji State was the second WCHA team, which there is a good argument to make.

Obviously, the big winner in this setup would be Massachusetts, which goes from the lowest No. 2 seed to a No. 1 seed by virtue of being the second-highest Eastern team. The Minutemen go to nearby Albany and headline a region that has three nearby schools. In this scenario, Quinnipiac also moves up to a No. 2 seed to give a 5/3 split across and make it as even as possible without encountering an inter-conference matchup.

As for the biggest loser, it's Minnesota and anyone in a stacked Fargo regional. Instead of being the third western No. 1 seed, the Gophers drop to a No. 2 seed. Doing so keeps the top-two Big Ten teams, who are as close to the top as any top-two teams in one conference are, on the same seeding band. That makes sense in a scenario where the location matters. Unfortunately, Minnesota gets placed in North Dakota's home Fargo as the only No. 2 seed that can both drive to the regional and face Minnesota Duluth. (St. Cloud State is in the same conference.) The number of rivalries in this region would be legendary, but a much tougher path for all teams involved.

The Minnesota-UMD scenario would also work for Minnesota State. However, since I put Minnesota as the fourth No. 1 seed in the regular bracket so it makes sense to move the Gophers. Plus I don't think I could force the Mavericks in it after awakening memories by placing Minnesota State in Albany to play No. 4 seed Providence last week.

Nuts and bolts:

Teams By conference: 

4- Hockey East, NCHC
3- Big Ten
2- ECAC, WCHA
1- Atlantic Hockey

In Since Last Week: UConn
Out Since Last Week: Providence

Bubble: Omaha, UConn, Clarkson, Bowling Green, AIC
First four out: Bemidji State, Providence, Notre Dame, Lake Superior State
Next four out: Army West Point, Northeastern, Michigan Tech, Robert Morris

Have any questions? Agree with the bracket? Disagree? Wondering why a team is in/out or where to send those pitchforks and torches? Leave it in the comments.

Related: 

2021 NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament Version 1.0

Bracketology 101: Five More Selection Questions + NCAA Tournament Locks & Bubble Teams

Bracketology 101: How Many Teams From Each Conference Make The Men's NCAA Hockey Tournament?

--

If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

Bracketology Postmortem: How Was Minnesota Left Out Of The 2021 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament?

Time for a little bracketology postmortem.

So the good news after the 2021 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament bracket was announced Sunday night? The bones of the bracket made perfect sense. Northeastern earned the No. 1 overall seed and play Robert Morris. Wisconsin, as the WCHA champion, was the No. 2 overall seed. The top-six spots were correct with the ECAC champion, the second and third WCHA teams, and the second Hockey East team, filling the ranks.

The biggest question - giving the final at-large bid to either the third Hockey East team, the fourth WCHA team, or a second CHA team - ended up being a third Hockey East team in Providence. Doing so took away any need to avoid inter-conference matchups, pushing second-ranked Hockey East team Boston College into a matchup with second-ranked WCHA team Ohio State. 

The bad? I, along with everyone else outside of Amsoil Arena and/or the selection committee (including the UMD beat writer), did not have Minnesota Duluth ranked as the third WCHA team.

That bit of change flipped the bracket upside down and took out a team everyone besides the committee saw as a lock. Consensus aside, the only way Minnesota would miss was a combination of two separate, questionable subjective decisions. To see a Gopher bubble burst, it would need both Minnesota Duluth being considered the third-ranked WCHA team and the WCHA only getting three teams in the NCAA Tournament in favor of Hockey East or the CHA. Surprisingly this happened, creating a bracket without Brad Frost's team for the first time since 2007.

Take away one of the choices and the bracket holds up better. I had the third-ranked WCHA school, no matter who, as the top unseeded team. Providence's spot was going to be a political question in a year where non-conference games did not exist. I thought one decision could happen but, like everyone else, never expected the committee to make both.

Honestly, I expected Penn State to be in the NCAA Tournament as an at-large bid before Minnesota's bubble was burst.

UMD is in the tournament as the #5 seed, while Minnesota, who was ahead of UMD in both intra-WCHA KRACH and intra-WCHA RPI, and was 2-0-0 against Duluth, misses the field entirely. That's the craziest thing I've ever seen in this tournament which has a history of crazy-ass things

— Grant Salzano (@Salzano14) March 8, 2021

Why did the consensus have Minnesota as the third-ranked WCHA team?

Minnesota was the consensus pick because looking at the selection criteria data, the Gophers (11-8-1) were ahead of Minnesota Duluth (11-6-0) outside of the percentage in a win/loss record. Pairwise does not work across conferences this season without inter-conference play. It does work inside where schedules are unbalanced yet similar. When comparing only WCHA teams against one another,  Minnesota had a higher Pairwise, RPI, and KRACH compared to UMD. Both teams lost in the WCHA Final Faceoff semifinals.

More importantly, the Gophers swept Minnesota Duluth in Duluth in the only two games the teams played. Head-to-head results were very applicable there. Both teams also had the same number of wins against Wisconsin and Ohio State. Minnesota went undefeated (9-0-0) against everyone outside of those two teams while Minnesota Duluth (9-1-0) lost to a two-win Bemidji State squad that was one of the worst teams in college hockey.  

The Bulldogs are also two weeks removed from needing a third-period comeback one day and a last-second goal the next to sweep Minnesota State, however, that is not part of any selection criteria. A 1-0 win counts the same as a 10-0 win.

How did the selection committee justify Minnesota Duluth?

Note that without getting an answer from the committee, who have not given one publicly, this, like the selection criteria, is completely subjective. 

The criteria used are vague enough to justify anything for a year where each team faces unique challenges. 

In this case, it seems comparisons were puts aside, and win/loss record and Minnesota Duluth finishing higher in the WCHA thanks to playing fewer games give the Bulldogs the edge. UMD played three fewer games than Minnesota due to Covid canceling two separate series - including a January 4-5 one against Minnesota at Ridder Arena and six fewer games against Wisconsin and Ohio State, going 2-3-0. Using a straight win/loss and points percentage helps Minnesota Duluth and punishes Minnesota for playing more games against a tougher strength of schedule (also a criterium).  

While the human element could come into play when deciding teams within conferences, there are no "last 10 games" or "how did Team X play down the stretch?" criterium. Minnesota finishing 3-7-1 after 9 of 11 games against Ohio State and Wisconsin, and Minnesota Duluth finishing 6-2-0 should not make a difference. All games are supposed to count the same, according to the criteria.

How did the selection committee justify Providence?

Again, this is my own belief. The selection committee justified Providence reaching the Hockey East championship game, a similar resume with a higher finish playing in a different conference, and creating an original matchup. 

Many of the same things that could be said about Providence can be said about Minnesota, however, this separate decision makes more sense on the surface in a year without inter-conference matchups.

Providence, like Minnesota, struggled against the top team in its conference, going 0-4-0. The Friars did take 2 of 3 games against second-place Boston College and beat/tied fourth-place UConn. (PC also lost to fifth and sixth-place Maine and New Hampshire, respectively.) The 2-5 record against NCAA teams is similar to Minnesota's 4-7-1 record - if UMD is considered the fifth seed, as they are in this bracket - then the Gophers' two wins against the fifth seed should count as such.

The Friars, through no fault of their own, did not get another chance to face Boston College since Maine upset the Eagles in the Hockey East quarterfinals. Needing OT, PC advanced to the championship, unlike Minnesota, who lost to Wisconsin in the semifinal.

Lastly, this might be the most subjective decision: If Minnesota is the fourth WCHA team and the choice is between the Gophers, who went 0-4-1 against Wisconsin and just lost Saturday, and Providence, who have not faced the Badgers, would the committee be more swayed into choosing the fresh matchup for Wisconsin?

What about Penn State, who went 16-3-2?

Sadly, it seems like CHA regular-season records and points matter like those on "Whose Line Is It Anyway?" Like the 2021 NCAA Tournament, one weekend in Erie, PA takes precedence over months of work.

What can we learn from this for future years?

This year's selection is unique based on Pairwise being unusable across the sport. So it should be a unique year without bracket precedent for the future. But if there is a true winner this weekend, it's the use of Pairwise, as flawed as it can be at times. A flawed math system tops flawed people. 

In fairness to the committee, I don't think a single bracket exists which would garner 100% agreement. Someone would be left out. Someone's feelings would be hurt. No result exists that would not bring up fears of mistrust and backroom deals. This is college hockey. Look at how long it has taken to get a "consensus" on settling overtime.

Still, there was a break when it came to Minnesota where the consensus and selection committee do not line up with one another. Whether there was less chance of getting four WCHA teams than believed (very possible) or a lack of understanding of what criteria were more important than to the committee (extremely possible), the two decisions that left the Gophers out should not be a surprise. 

Two things to take away for this year that could be implemented for the future men's hockey selection are, first, that the polls still don't matter. Minnesota was ahead of UMD and Providence all season. They still are on the Monday after Selection Sunday. Second, there will be more of an effort to balance the field nationally and get fresh, non-conference matchups. That extra team in each conference should be seeing what it can do to add to its resume.

Unfortunately, there is a negative takeaway for women's hockey teams to take from these decisions. Using the Pairwise has come at a cost where limited non-conference games make it better to win against bad teams than lose against good teams. This cost the third WCHA team behind Wisconsin and Minnesota for several years in the 2010s and multiple Hockey East teams. 

One example that comes to mind is Boston University needing to win the 2015 Hockey East tournament because the Terriers, with Marie-Philip Poulin, played and lost to Minnesota in a non-conference game that flipped an entire conference's comparison.

Using subjective reasoning did not change that. Minnesota ended up being punished for being the third-best team in a season where the Gophers, Wisconsin and Ohio State played the majority of the season against one another. Bad losses mattered less than losing in general or head-to-head matchups. Minnesota Duluth and Providence, with slightly better records and slightly weaker strength of schedules, were deemed higher-ranking than Minnesota.

If the lesson is to not play good teams - something that likely also cost the ECAC a second bid this season with all four teams beating up on one another - that is a worrying trend. The top teams facing one another can create a self-fulfilling prophecy at times, but it has also been difficult in non-pandemic years for several teams to schedule non-conference games. The Minnesota Cup exists for this reason.

I will be curious to see how this year's selection criteria affect future years, whether it is placing more strengths in certain aspects, rewarding teams and conferences more for non-conference games, or adding criteria like the final 10 games.

The Gophers being left out of the 2021 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament comes down to two separate decisions. The committee went against the consensus to take UMD as the third WCHA team and did not take a fourth WCHA team. It's easier to understand the latter decision than realizing it turns out the former was a contest.

At the end of the day, in a season defined by unrest and the pandemic, it is fitting the most important games might have been two not played between Minnesota and Minnesota Duluth. 

Related:

2021 NCAA Tournament Women's Hockey Final Projected Bracket

2021 NCAA Tournament Women's Hockey Bracket Version 2.0

2021 NCAA Tournament Women's Hockey Bracket Version 1.0

Five Selection Questions + NCAA Tournament Locks & Bubble Teams

--

If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

Bracketology: 2021 NCAA Tournament Women's Hockey Final Projected Bracket

Four teams officially scanned their digital tickets to the 2021 NCAA Tournament, hours away from Selection Sunday. 

All games have been played Robert Morris, the CHA's third seed, won its third game in as many days, defeating Syracuse 1-0 to take home the CHA conference tournament championship. The Colonials return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017.

Northeastern, much to the joy of Boston College and bubble teams elsewhere, defeated Providence 6-2 to claim its fourth straight Hockey East conference title Saturday night. The Huskies enter the NCAA Tournament a remarkable 20-1-1 and not lost since its second game of the season. 

Colgate held back a late St. Lawrence attempt Sunday afternoon to send the game to OT to defeat the Saints 3-2. The win leaves the Red Raiders as the ECAC's lone representative by default as the loss drops St. Lawrence below .500, along with Clarkson (and Quinnipiac taking away 6 NEWHA wins against LIU and Sacred Heart).

Ohio State, after scoring six more goals against UMD Saturday than in two games when the two teams played in Duluth, had an opportunity to make a statement and repeat as WCHA Final Faceoff champions facing the Badgers, who defeated Minnesota on Saturday. For a second consecutive year, the Buckeyes and Wisconsin went to overtime to decide a champion. This time, however, it was the Badgers who celebrated an OT championship. Lacey Eden scored 42 seconds in to win Wisconsin's eighth WCHA conference tournament title and break a 2-2-0 tie on the season against Ohio State.

The four teams earning automatic bids are noted with their conferences in parenthesis. If you need a refresher on what subjective criteria the NCAA Tournament selection committee will use to seed the top four and choose the eight teams, click here. Otherwise, here is the final projected bracket.

You can watch the 2021 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament Selection Show at 9 pm ET Sunday, March 7 on NCAA.com

The Bracket:

1. Northeastern (Hockey East) vs. Robert Morris (CHA)

4. Colgate (ECAC) vs. Minnesota

2.  Wisconsin (WCHA) vs. Boston College

3.  Ohio State vs. Minnesota Duluth

(All games played March 15-20 at Erie Insurance Arena in Erie, PA)

How Did We Get Here:

Several teams had opportunities to make arguments for higher seeds or steal automatic bids. In the end, only Colgate and Robert Morris did. The Red Raiders winning the ECAC championship mixed with Minnesota and Minnesota Duluth losing in the WCHA Final Faceoff semifinals gives Colgate the fourth and final seed. 

From there, I avoided inter-conference matchups as much as possible and go with a straight bracket as travel does not matter. One matchup seems locked into the bracket: Northeastern as the No. 1 overall seed, facing Robert Morris. The selection committee has traditionally protected the No. 1 overall seed when possible, and this is a case where it would be easy to do so.

Four WCHA teams making the bracket and protecting the No. 1 overall seed leaves one WCHA inter-conference matchup. For that, I went with the lower of the two WCHA seeded teams to face Minnesota Duluth while the higher goes against Boston College.

Who Was Left Out? Deciding The Final At-Large Bids 

Penn State and Providence, I'm so sorry.

The final at-large bids come down to the selection committee putting in one of the following three choices: A fourth WCHA team, a third Hockey East team, or a second CHA team. It would not be out of the realm of possibility for any of the three to be included when the bracket gets shown Sunday night, however, in my bracket as selection committee I am going with the fourth WCHA team, Minnesota Duluth.

Providence's loss Saturday leaves the Friars 12-7-1 compared to Boston College's 14-5-0. The Friars are hoping the committee gives credence to PC going 2-1 against BC, with the loss happening on the road in OT. As good as Providence has been, the Eagles finished higher in comparison when it comes to statistical rankings (BC was also the only team to beat Northeastern while the Friars went 0-4) and I am keeping Boston College ahead as the second-ranked Hockey East team.

Penn State should be given more credit. As SB Nation College Hockey's Chris Dilks points out, the Nittany Lions have been recruiting well since Jeff Kampersal took over. It has been paying off for PSU. In another season where there are more comparison and non-conference games, I think it's an easier argument for whether or not Penn State makes the NCAA Tournament as an at-large bid. As it is, the CHA's historical and past performances make it difficult to put a second team into my bracket, leaving Penn State the best CHA team to miss.

Instead, Boston College and UMD get the spots. I find it easier to believe a second Hockey East team finds its way in and comparing Minnesota Duluth's resume to Providence and Penn State gives the nod to the Bulldogs.

Why is Minnesota Duluth, who finished ahead in the conference, the fourth WCHA team instead of the Gophers? A mixture of head-to-head and strength of schedule. Minnesota swept the Bulldogs in Duluth when the two teams played in December. The Gophers are undefeated against teams not named Wisconsin and Ohio State while Minnesota Duluth lost to a two-win Bemidji State team. In addition, the Gophers are also higher in the Pairwise and other statistical rankings when comparing WCHA teams. Minnesota's 2-8-1 record against Wisconsin and Ohio State (UMD is 2-3-0 against the two) puts it a distant third, though.

Nuts and Bolts:

Teams By Conference:

4- WCHA
2- Hockey East
1- ECAC, CHA

Last Two Teams In: Boston College, Minnesota Duluth
First Two Teams Out: Penn State, Providence

Related:

2021 NCAA Tournament Women's Hockey Bracket Version 2.0

2021 NCAA Tournament Women's Hockey Bracket Version 1.0

Five Selection Questions + NCAA Tournament Locks & Bubble Teams

--

If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

Bracketology: 2021 NCAA Tournament Women's Hockey Bracket Version 2.0

Friday saw Clarkson saying goodbye to the Golden Knights' NCAA Tournament hopes and Penn State hoping its resume is enough for an at-large bid.

Someone's feelings will be hurt Sunday with the number of possibilities opening. 

For the fourth time in eight days, St. Lawrence defeated Clarkson, this time advancing to the ECAC championship game after Aly McLeod's OT winner saved the Saints from blowing a 3-0 lead. SLU meets Colgate, who defeated Quinnipiac for the conference tournament title and automatic bid.

Meanwhile, Clarkson ends its season 8-10-1 and out of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2012.

In the CHA, Syracuse and Robert Morris defeat the top-two seeds in PSU and Mercyhurst, advancing to Saturday's championship game. The Orange put at-large bubble teams on guard after Penn State's attempt at erasing a 3-0 third period deficit came just short. The Nittany Lions will now either be the CHA's first at-large bid since the conference received an automatic bid in 2014-15 or the CHA's best team to miss the NCAA Tournament.

If you need a refresher on what subjective criteria the NCAA Tournament selection committee will be using to choose the eight teams, click here. Otherwise, here is the latest updated bracket.

The Bracket:

1. Northeastern (Hockey East) vs. Robert Morris/Syracuse winner (CHA)

4. Minnesota vs. Colgate (ECAC)

2. Wisconsin (WCHA) vs. 7. Boston College

3. Ohio State vs. 6. Minnesota Duluth

How Did We Get Here:

No Hockey East and WCHA games mean seedings hold steady. Only one change today with the possibility of several more tomorrow.

Since no team can earn an automatic bid before conference tournaments end, this bracketology assumes the highest remaining seed in each of the four conferences earns the automatic bid. (That team has its conference next to it in parenthesis.) Penn State's loss opens the CHA automatic bid to the Robert Morris/Syracuse winner. Without an argument, either would be the lowest team to make the NCAA Tournament, making a match-up with No. 1 overall seed a given.

While there is a good argument for Penn State to earn an at-large bid, taking away Boston College's spot, history has shown a second Hockey East team will be above a second CHA team when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. I am leaning on the side of caution and leaving in BC. It's disappointing to have a 16-3-2 team like PSU outside of this bracket due to one loss on the wrong weekend, but it doesn't take away from the remarkable job Jeff Kampersal has done.

Speaking of the Eagles, Boston College's fate becomes clearer Saturday. Providence can earn the Hockey East's automatic bid with a victory Saturday night against Northeastern. Doing so would knock out BC. On the other side, the ECAC's results mean a St. Lawrence win Sunday might do the same, or spell disaster to Colgate or the fourth WCHA team, who will become known tomorrow between Minnesota Duluth and Minnesota.

And there's still the possibility of Penn State. This is going to be a fun weekend. Well, maybe not for those on the bubble.

Nuts and Bolts:

Teams By Conference:

4- WCHA
2- Hockey East
1- ECAC, CHA

Bubble: Minnesota, Colgate, Minnesota Duluth
Last Team In: Boston College
First Three Teams Out: Penn State, Providence, St. Lawrence

Related:

2021 NCAA Tournament Women's Hockey Bracket Version 1.0

Five Selection Questions + NCAA Tournament Locks & Bubble Teams

--

If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

Bracketology: 2021 NCAA Tournament Women's Hockey Bracket Version 1.0

After going through all the potential questions the selection committee will need to answer, it is time for the first 2021 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament bracket.

Explanations are below.

The Bracket:

1. Northeastern (Hockey East) vs. Penn State (CHA)

4. Minnesota vs. Colgate (ECAC)

2. Wisconsin (WCHA) vs. Boston College

3. Ohio State vs. Minnesota Duluth

How Did We Get Here?

Rankings and not needing to make matchups to save flights.

To take a step back, the bracket follows the committee's guidelines posted in the NCAA pre-championship manual while making some subjective assumptions. 

One caveat: Since no team can earn an automatic bid before conference tournaments end, this bracketology assumes the highest remaining seed in each of the four conferences earns the automatic bid. 

As part of the selection criteria, the committee only seeds the top four teams 1-4. In normal years, those four teams host quarterfinals against the unseeded four. So in theory, the No. 1 overall seed could face the fifth-best team in the tournament (although the committee usually tries to protect the No. 1 overall seed by giving it the lowest unseeded team, no matter if it is a fight or not). Inter-conference quarterfinal match-ups are also acceptable.

With the entire NCAA Tournament taking place in a single location, there is no need to move around teams to save flights. Nothing gets in the way of making a 1-8, 2-7, etc. straight bracket. So the above bracket features my subjective take at one. Teams are ranked against one another inside each conference before figuring the order and comparing teams outside conferences.

Now, there are some subjective choices, such as putting ECAC leader Colgate above fourth WCHA team Minnesota Duluth. There are arguments to be made. At the moment, I feel that it would be too much for the committee and errored on the side of caution. 

This weekend features plenty of chances for teams to make final statements. Several teams are on the outside looking in and, in the case of the WCHA, there are opportunities to change the rankings inside the conference. The Ohio State-UMD match-up in NCAA Tournament version 1.0 will be first happening in a Saturday WCHA semifinal.

Much will change between now and version 2.0.

Nuts and Bolts:

Teams By Conference:

4- WCHA
2- Hockey East
1- ECAC, CHA

Bubble: Minnesota, Colgate, Minnesota Duluth
Last Team In: Boston College
First Two Teams Out: Providence, Clarkson

Related:

Five Selection Questions + NCAA Tournament Locks & Bubble Teams

--

If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

Who should be the first St. Thomas D1 men's hockey head coach? A name no one has brought up.

Who will be the first D-1 men's hockey head coach for St. Thomas?

A few days ago, The Rink Live's excellent group of writers tackled this question. They came up with a variety of names who should and likely will be considered, including Northern Michigan head coach Grant Potulny, Minnesota State associate coach Todd Knott, former University of Minnesota assistant coach Scott Bell, former UMD associate coach Jason Herter, and Bemidji State assistant Travis Winter. Other names who get brought up usually have a Minnesota tie in one way or another, such as former longtime Minnesota assistant Mike Guentzel.

Reading their answers got me thinking not just who would be a good fit, but who is someone who would be a good fit that no one has brought up yet. I quickly came up with an answer.

Taking the St. Thomas job presents an intriguing challenge as the Tommies enter the D-1 world in 2021-22, joining seven other teams in (re-?)forming the CCHA. Very few coaches get to put their stamp on a program by building from the ground up and pouring the foundation. 

With that in mind, I am going outside the box with someone who understands that all too well in Penn State associate coach Keith Fisher.

Why Fisher? 

The Rink Live writers bring up several fantastic points. St. Thomas can use someone who knows the state of Minnesota, who knows how to recruit, and who knows how to win and compete against some of the top teams in the country by being directly thrown into the CCHA. Names brought up all hit on those points.

The coach also needs to promote a culture and program that is looking to grow, eventually getting a new rink and being competitive as the sixth Minnesota Division 1 school. Whoever does will also have six months before opening puck drop to do so.

Getting someone like Fisher, who as Guy Gadowsky's assistant and recruiter played a major role in creating the Penn State program, from scratch, can be a major help for the Tommies. Unlike others, he has that experience. The Nittany Lions went from a non-entity at the beginning of the 2010s to NCAA Tournament appearances, a Big Ten regular-season and conference tournament title, and a national title contender at the end of the decade. PSU got to that point by building on each recruiting class, getting higher quality players from all over the world, and building a unique culture that works with players buying in.

All of that would be worthy of taking a look on its own, but Fisher also checks off the all-important Minnesota boxes. He is a Minnesota native who graduated from St. Cloud State and served as an undergrad assistant coach for Craig Dahl. Before working with Gadowsky at Princeton, he helped recruit a number of future NHLers to the USHL's Omaha Lancers (then coached by Minnesota State head coach Mike Hastings). At Penn State, the Nittany Lions have found its share of Minnesotans between Nate Jensen, Eric Scheid, Vince Pedrie, and currently with Xander Lamppa and former Gopher Clayton Phillips.

A program like St. Thomas, entering a crowded Twin Cities and Minnesota pipeline, will need to both scour the state and look elsewhere for diamonds in the rough. Getting someone like Fisher who can recruit all over, understands the challenges which come from coaching college hockey in the state, and knows how to build a successful program from scratch seems like a home-run hire.

--
If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

Bracketology 2021: Five Selection Questions + NCAA Tournament Locks & Bubble Teams (Women's Hockey)

Time flies. It seems like yesterday that the season began, and yet Selection Sunday is this Sunday (March 7) at 9 pm ET. Only a few conference tournament games separate the eight best women's hockey teams from NCAA Tournament berths.

All four automatic bids will be handed out this weekend. The CHA kicks off its tournament later today with all six teams participating. Hockey East is already in the midst of its tournament, as Wednesday's semifinal victories lead Northeastern and Providence against one another in Saturday's championship. Meanwhile, both the ECAC and WCHA Final Faceoff feature four teams vying for an automatic bid.

As expected when playing limited non-conference games during a pandemic, selecting the eight teams will be more subjective than normal. The Pairwise is not an option, leaving an open-ended comparison for the four at-large bids and seeding. The human element will come into play.

Here are the various criteria the selection committee will be using, according to the pre-championship manual:

• Win/Loss Record
• Strength of Schedule
• Head-to-Head Results (When Available)
• Results vs. Common Opponents
• Quality Wins
• Home/Away Weighing
• Eligibility and Availability of Student-Athletes

Using this guide, here are five selection questions to better understand and make sense of the process.

1) How does a lack of non-conference games decide seedings?

One positive of the entire NCAA Tournament being played in a single site is that it takes away any need to create quarterfinal matchups to save money and flights. Thankfully there will be no 2-5 game, which happened recently with western teams. It will be easy to make a WCHA-ECAC quarterfinal matchup, for example.

On the other hand, a lack of non-conference games - of the four conferences with automatic bids, only the ECAC played non-conference foes - makes it extremely difficult to compare across conferences. Nowhere does it matter more than seedings. If the current polls are to be believed, four of the top five teams are all from the same conference. With little to compare, does the selection committee go with perception and confirmation bias for seeds (remember, only the top four teams get seeded) or spread it out more with the top ECAC team being seeded over the third WCHA team? It's something to keep an eye on. 

2) Do limited opponents help or harm selections? Is it a self-fulfilling cycle?

Going further, regular-season games have been as intriguing as I can remember. Numerous top-10 battles happen each weekend as schedules are limited. Clarkson and Colgate faced each other 10 times this season. Minnesota, Ohio State and Wisconsin focused on playing one another (and Minnesota Duluth) over a round-robin WCHA schedule.

On one hand, it is easy to compare and set a hierarchy of teams when each plays several games against one another. Few seasons have been as helpful as this one. 

On the other hand, I'm not sure. It ends up being a self-fulfilling cycle where the best teams are the best teams because they solely play each other. Strong strength of schedule aside, figuring out where Clarkson, who survived the highs and lows of the Colgate series before being swept by St. Lawrence, should fit is a challenge in and of itself. The same for Minnesota and Minnesota Duluth, who have losing records against Ohio State and Wisconsin. There is no easier way to compare teams within conferences yet also teams should not be punished for having unique seasons.

Of course, this is also taking out the human element of making sure late-season collapses and getting hot at the right time are not given more importance.

3) Is Penn State an at-large bid if the Nittany Lions do not win the CHA Tournament?

The reason for the question lies with Penn State completing a remarkable turnaround, finishing 16-2-2 and winning the CHA regular season for the first time in program history. It is by far the best record of any champion since the conference received an automatic bid in 2014-15. The Nittany Lions are ranked seventh in the current USCHO.com poll, but is it enough for an at-large bid?

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 8 teams in 2005, the CHA has never had more than one team represent the conference. (Since the automatic bid, no CHA team has won an NCAA Tournament game.) Robert Morris missed with a 21-8-4 record in 2017-18 and Mercyhurst missed with a 23-9-3 record in 2014-15. Penn State would not be the first CHA team historically to miss out, however, in a year where PSU (and everyone) did not play any teams outside the conference, the committee will have to decide whether that helps or hurts the Nittany Lions. 

Recently, St. Anselm used an outstanding season almost exclusively against fellow D-II teams to work its way into the Pairwise mix, but there was enough of a resume against D-III schools to not select the team. That is not the case with Penn State, however, I am not sure historically where the season leaves the Nittany Lions.

To be safe, any team on the NCAA Tournament bubble should be major Penn State fans this weekend. 

4) Who currently is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament?

In an unusual year, the number of spots up for grabs is more than ever. Only a few teams can be considered locks entering the final weekend of the season.

Besides the top three teams Northeastern, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, no one can be considered an NCAA Tournament lock. Some teams are in better shape than others. Several this weekend still control their own destiny. However, scenarios exist where the rest can be on the outside looking in depending on how the rest of the weekend goes.

5) Who is on the bubble? Where do those teams stand entering the weekend?

By conference:

CHA: Penn State, which was previously discussed. The other five teams need to earn an automatic bid.

ECAC: Both Colgate and Clarkson are on the bubble, fitting after a never-ending series that saw the Red Raiders go 5-4-1. The Golden Knights' hopes dropped elsewhere after being swept in three straight games by St. Lawrence, dropping Clarkson below .500 and needing to win the tournament to stay above. Colgate, meanwhile, sits a little prettier. It would likely take an upset ECAC loss and upsets in other conferences. The ECAC will get one team in with the automatic bid, but whether a second joins could depend on other factors.

Hockey East: Of any team on the bubble, Boston College may be in the most difficult spot. There is nothing for the Eagles to do but sit and wait. Providence advanced to Saturday's final with a 1-0 overtime win over Maine. A win over Northeastern gives the Friars an automatic bid and likely the spot BC would hold without upsets.  

WCHA: No conference has ever gotten four teams in the NCAA Tournament, but could this be the year? Minnesota and Minnesota Duluth. Comparing numbers in-conference, the Gophers have the edge on the Bulldogs (along with sweeping UMD in Duluth in the only head-to-head series between the two). Barring something crazy happening, the Gophers should extend its NCAA Tournament streak. Both schools have a last chance to make an impression in the WCHA Final Faceoff (UMD faces Ohio State and Minnesota plays Wisconsin) and for UMD to try and jump Minnesota as the third WCHA team. 

It is safe to say that the WCHA will get at least three teams in the NCAA Tournament. The selection committee will have to make decisions on whether a fourth WCHA team over a third Hockey East school or a second ECAC/CHA team. How that happens will be interesting to follow.

It should be noted that the NEWHA, not playing a full season and without an automatic bid until next season at the earliest, is currently holding a competition between the two teams competing: Long Island University and Sacred Heart.

Up Next: A bracket just in time for weekend games to blow things up.

Related:

Men's Hockey NCAA Tournament Bracket 1.0

Bracketology 101 - How Many Teams From Each Conference Make The Men's NCAA Tournament?

--
If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!