When the Pairwise is set for good once the final game is played March 17th, it appears the Gophers will once again be one of the 16 teams. College Hockey News put out its first Pairwise Probablity Matrix on Monday. Minnesota makes the tournament in 99.9% of the 20,000 monte carlo simulations that CHN ran.
That's the good news if you're a Gopher fan. Minnesota's 6-1-1 run over the last 8 games, combined with a 9-3-0 non-conference record against top-tier opponents, seems to solidified a spot. Only two regular season games remain along with at least two conference tournament games. Even if the Gophers go 0-4 during this stretch the team, currently eighth in the Pairwise, would stay in position to get an at-large bid.
At the same time, there is not much room to move up. Several of you have noticed, which allows me to answer one of the questions I've most frequently been asked: Why is Minnesota stuck in the same Pairwise position?
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| Screenshot via collegehockeyranked.com |
For those not following the Pairwise closely, Minnesota swept the Badgers on the road and went from 9th to...9th. The Gophers beat Ohio State last Friday and went from 9th to...9th. The two teams tied on Saturday and Minnesota went from 9th to...8th?
On its own moving up after a tie makes no sense. There's a reason, however. The Pairwise rankings is not like either of the two college hockey polls. It's not bound to the whims and recency bias of voters.
Short answer? Minnesota losing in OT and struggling against Michigan. Long answer? Read below.
What makes up the Pairwise?
Three different criteria compose the Pairwise: Ratings Percentage Index (hereafter referred to as RPI), record against common opponents and head-to-head record.
Teams are ranked in the Pairwise by comparing the three criteria to each and every team. If Team A has a higher RPI and record against common opponents over Team B, Team A claims the comparison. If there's a tie - something that happens often when two teams do not play one another - RPI acts as a tiebreaker.
The more comparisons over other opponents a team can claim, the higher the ranking in the Pairwise. The top team is going to win 58 or 59 comparisons. Each subsequent team wins less.
Where does a team need to finish to ensure an at-large bid?
Technically a team needs to finish 10th. There are six automatic bids. If all six conferences have teams win automatic bids outside the top 16, the 11th through 16th teams would be on the outside. In actuality, the bubble usually sits somewhere between 13-15.
One guarantee this year is Atlantic Hockey will have a team outside the top 16.
You mentioned teams not playing one another. How does the Pairwise sort out everyone?
Not every team can face one another. Sixty teams contend in Division 1 hockey. Each team only plays between 29 and 36 regular season games.
While there are multiple ways to finish in position for an at-large bid, it helps to be in a conference that has done well in non-conference play. Facing strong teams in RPI regularly helps RPI. It's far easier to drop in RPI when losing to a lower ranked team than losing to a higher ranked team. Likewise teams struggle to move up when only facing teams with low RPI.
Two of the heavily-weighed factors in RPI are average winning percentage of the team's opponents and average winning percentage of the team's opponents' opponents. When a conference as a whole struggles in non-conference play (i.e. Hockey East this season, Big Ten a few years ago when Minnesota had to win 9 of 12 to make the tournament despite being 20th in the Pairwise) it's that much more difficult.
The Gophers playing well in non-conference (holding wins over Clarkson, St. Cloud State and North Dakota), along with the Big Ten, continues to help cushion the team during losses. Minnesota faced one team outside of the top-20 in the Pairwise since New Year's.
Is there anything else we should know?
Yes. Teams also need to finish above .500 to be eligible for the NCAA Tournament. The rule was implemented in 2008 after Wisconsin jumped over Minnesota State with a sub-.500% record. Since then it hasn't come in play although a couple teams this season (Nebraska-Omaha, Western Michigan) sit on the bubble with .500 records. Might be something to keep an eye on.
When teams do play head-to-head, one game counts as one point. So if Team A and Team B play two games against one another and Team A wins twice, the comparison between the two would be 2-2 if Team B had the higher RPI and common opponent percentage. If two teams tie, no one gets a point head-to-head.
So with that Pairwise primer out of the way...
Why is Minnesota stuck in 8th or 9th?
At this point of the year two factors go against the Gophers.
First, Minnesota's RPI was far closer to the bubble than the tier above. On January 28th, at the start of Minnesota's bye week, the Gophers were 11th in the Pairwise and RPI. At that time Minnesota's .5463% RPI was as close to 21st as it was to 7th, which was the bottom of the next tier.
Since then the Gophers have gone 3-0-1 against teams in the top 20 and brought themselves within striking distance of the next tier. Minnesota was also helped by Clarkson struggling, going 1-5-4 in its last 10 games.
Second, Minnesota is going to be a spot or two below where it could be in the Pairwise due to lost comparisons. The Gophers have the seventh-best RPI, however, two teams hold comparisons that Minnesota likely can't get back.
Despite the Gophers having a better RPI ranking (.5563% now), UMD's season-opening OT win combined with a better record against common opponents (by virtue of sweeping North Dakota) gave the Bulldogs the comparison over the Gophers. Minnesota would hold it if the game ended as a tie.
Michigan also holds a comparison over Minnesota thanks to going 3-0-1 this season against the Gophers. Those 3 wins are enough to offset losing both the RPI and common opponents. This could change if the teams meet in the Big Ten tournament, though.
Losing both comparisons has meant Minnesota currently won 51 Pairwise comparisons instead of 52 or 53. That's put them in a three-way tie with Providence (who won 51 regularly) and UMD (who would have won 50 but have the extra one over Minnesota).
With RPI as the tiebreaker, the Gophers are ahead of both.
So how did Minnesota move up to 8th on a tie?
Easy. Clarkson lost to Harvard on Saturday, putting the Golden Knights' RPI below Minnesota's and giving the Gophers the extra won comparison. Before matching Providence, Minnesota had the comparison against the Friars as well.
Now you might be wondering why Minnesota needed Clarkson to fall below the Gophers in RPI before holding the comparison after CU was swept earlier this season. That's because the Golden Knights, who beat Michigan, got the point in common opponents, meaning the two teams tied 2-2 if Clarkson also holds the better RPI. As RPI is the tiebreaker...I think you get this point by now.
Is Minnesota still stuck in 8th/9th?
Yes.
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| Screenshot from collegehockeyranked.com |
The RPI gap between the Gophers and everyone besides Clarkson on both sides is over .100. A loss would knock a team down on average .030-.040. Minnesota would need to win and have the teams in front of them lose to move up (and vice versa for the teams hoping to jump the Gophers).
To make matters worse, Notre Dame, one of the seven teams ahead of Minnesota holds the comparison regardless of RPI. A second team, Ohio State, currently holds both the common opponent and RPI comparisons. The Gophers would need to take both in order to flip that Pairwise comparison.
Who are teams Gopher fans should be watching for Pairwise?
The easy answer would be Clarkson. It's the easiest comparison to flip back. There's also the teams around Minnesota in the Pairwise - Providence, Minnesota Duluth, Ohio State and Denver. OSU is an interesting one since Wisconsin beating the Buckeyes would help Minnesota on two fronts - common opponents (where the Gophers went 3-1-0 and OSU split to open the year) and RPI.
UMD would be in focus if the Bulldogs face North Dakota again in the NCHC playoffs.
Lastly, Michigan. The Wolverines in one way or another have hurt the Gophers' Pairwise standing. Basically the blown 3-0 and 4-0 leads in Ann Arbor continue to bite Minnesota even more than the lost 4 Big Ten points (although those could come in play this weekend too).
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