There's an old saying to not look at the Pairwise rankings until the holiday break. By then, the rankings settle down. Teams do not move around.
However, that does not feel like the case this year. It seems like 2020 has been one where several high-profile teams have made giant leaps into the bracket.
Each week a new school hops into contention making the jump on the heels of a hot weekend or month. Maine. Minnesota. Bemidji State. New Hampshire. Michigan. All have made noise in the last six weeks.
Still, for all the noise being made, is this year vastly different? Turns out, not as much as one would think.
That's not to say teams did not move. Several have played to their potential and made giant moves up or down rankings.
The largest risers since December 26 (as of March 1st):
Michigan: 22 spots
Minnesota: 20 spots
St. Cloud State: 17 spots
RPI: 15 spots
Quinnipiac: 14 spots
Maine: 14 spots
AIC: 13 spots
Bemidji State: 11 spots
The largest drops since December 26 (as of March 1st):
Army: 19 spots
Colorado College: 16 spots
Michigan Tech: 16 spots
Bowling Green: 14 spots
Ferris State: 11 spots
RIT: 10 spots
Over a long enough timeline, these teams are the outliers. Looking at a two-month stretch since the holiday break, 29 of the 60 Division 1 men's hockey teams moved 3 or fewer spots.
As much as teams may move up or down on a weekly basis, the peaks and valleys eventually even out with a larger sample size. The majority of teams stay in the same tier. 12 of the top 15 teams in late December - the same number as 2019 - remain the top 15 teams in the Pairwise entering March. The biggest change is BGSU dropping 14 spots and fellow WCHA school Bemidji State moving up 11 to almost take its spot. Everything evens out.
In fact, of the biggest movers, only Bemidji State and Maine are currently in the top 15.
What do the big movers have in common?
However, there is something to be said about the higher-profile teams who were able to click during the second half and go on a run, even if it may not be enough to ensure an at-large bid.
The biggest movers in the Pairwise fall into two camps. One group features young teams that lost several leaders. That includes Michigan, Minnesota, St. Cloud State and Quinnipiac. Each had slow starts, trying to discover their identities before going on hot streaks.
Group two features upperclassmen groups relying on defense and goaltending. Bemidji State, Maine, RPI and AIC are each in the top-15 of team defense. Zach Driscoll, Jeremy Swayman and Owen Savory have been three of the hottest goalies in the second half. (Savory, in particular, has been nothing short of en fuego.) AIC has gotten help from a pair with Stefano Durante stepping up for Zackarias Skog.
There's some crossover. Strauss Mann has been a revelation for Michigan. So has Keith Petruzzelli for Quinnipiac. The Wolverines, Bobcats, and Minnesota are all in the top 11 of team defense. RPI and Bemidji State are averaging more points per game from its underclassmen than a Michigan team with Johnny Beecher and Cam York.
And of course, there are wins. Seven of the eight schools (all except St. Cloud State, who holds some major wins over top-10 schools) in the biggest movers section are among the top-16 best winning percentages.
So are the top six teams in the Pairwise. As easy as it is to look at the teams moving up and down on a weekly basis, the teams at the top are the ones consistent for the entire season, not just the second half.
At the end of the day, settling down and not moving around is not as entertaining.
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