Frozen Four week has arrived.
After a season unlike any other, and an NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament regional weekend featuring all kinds of craziness on and off the ice, the final four teams hopefully will play for a national championship game berth on Thursday.
(Hopefully, because this is 2021. There are no guarantees, as St. Lawrence, Notre Dame, and Michigan, unfortunately, know all too well. And now UMass does too.)
UMass, Minnesota State, St. Cloud State, and Minnesota Duluth each got through regionals filled with upsets, comebacks, dominating performances, and legendary overtimes to get through to Pittsburgh. It would not be a surprise for any of these four teams to end Saturday night by lifting the national championship trophy.
Minnesota State and St. Cloud State face off in the opening semifinal at 5:00 pm ET/4:00 pm CT Thursday. Minnesota Duluth and Massachusetts, meanwhile, play at 9:00 pm ET/8:00 pm CT. ESPN2 carries both games.
Prior to the regionals, I previewed all 16 teams by how each will 1) win the national championship, and 2) lose in the first round. True to form, a No. 1 seed (Wisconsin) lost in the first round for the 15th straight NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament. (Another, Boston College, lost its first game after moving onto the regional final due to Notre Dame withdrawing.) This time around, I will be doing the same for non-pandemic-related reasons.
In addition, I am adding three more names to watch in addition to how cheerable each of the four teams is from a neutral fan perspective.
Massachusetts (18-5-4):
Why the Minutemen will win its first national championship: Of all four teams, Massachusetts looked the most dominant during its regional run. The Minutemen outscored its opponents by a combined 9-1 to extend its unbeaten streak to 12 games. Carson Gicewicz had four of those, extending his team-leading total to 17. Filip Lindberg again showed why he is deserving to be discussed among the nation's top goaltenders, stopping 48 of 49 shots and keeping both games close early when needed.
Oftentimes the NCAA Tournament rewards the hot team at the right time. Right now that's Massachusetts, as no team has played as well down the stretch compared to the Minutemen. Add in Bobby Trivigno entering the Frozen Four with a chip on his shoulder and this veteran group has both the NCAA Tournament experience and talent to go all the way after finishing second in 2019.
Why the Minutemen will lose to UMD: It's not 2019...but it would be tough not to remember how 2019 went before the 2021 rematch.
Scott Sandelin's team was able to neutralize Massachusetts' strengths in ways no one else did. While Greg Carvel will get the opportunity to make adjustments and be going against a different Bulldogs squad, UMass will need to show it can take advantage of the few opportunities Minnesota Duluth gives. After all, UMD did take out another top team in North Dakota.
Another, non-history reason why Massachusetts could fall short is the number of penalties UMass took in the Bridgeport Regional. A normally disciplined team gave up a combined 11 power plays to Lake Superior State and Bemidji State. The Minutemen killed all 11, however, it is playing with fire if it continues.
And as a late addition, UMass announced Tuesday morning it would be without both leading goal scorer Gicewicz and starting goaltender Lindberg (in addition to two others) for Thursday's game due to Covid contact tracing. The Minutemen have a ringer in goalie Matt Murray (no, not that one), who has 84 career games of experience, and the depth to keep going, but a challenge becomes that much greater. It is not guaranteed that only those four miss too.
Neutral fans should cheer if: Are you from the East Coast or any place not named Minnesota? Then UMass might be the team for you in this Frozen Four. Unlike the other three teams, Massachusetts is not based in the Gopher State.
Three more players to watch: Besides the aforementioned #24 D- Zac Jones (NYR), #35 G- Filip Lindberg (MIN), #8 F- Bobby Trivigno (undrafted), keep an eye on #11 F- Carson Gicewicz (undrafted), #4 D- Matthew Kessel (STL), #2 D- Marc Del Gaizo (NSH)
Minnesota State (22-4-1):
Why the Mavericks will win its first national championship: Minnesota State won two NCAA Tournament games. Why not two more?
The Mavericks got its elusive NCAA Tournament win, coming back from a 3-1 third-period deficit to defeat Quinnipiac in OT thanks to a Ryan Sandelin goal. Number two came easier once number one happened, shutting out a potent Minnesota offense that scored seven goals the night before. Since going down 3-1, Minnesota State scored seven consecutive goals en route to taking down the ECAC and Big Ten champions. Turns out the key to not blowing an early multi-goal lead was coming back from a multi-goal deficit.
It is important that Minnesota State was able to win two games in two different ways. It also helps Mike Hastings' team enters its first Frozen Four with the best possession offense. Mixed with its defense and Dryden McKay, who showed against Minnesota that he is more than capable of stealing games at the highest level, and the Mavericks have a recipe for success against the Huskies and the UMass/UMD winner.
Why the Mavericks will lose to SCSU: Comparing the four teams, Hastings and Minnesota State have the least Frozen Four experience. In addition to being the first in school history, Hastings never made the Frozen Four as an assistant (something St. Cloud State head coach Brett Larson can claim). The Mavericks are college hockey's winningest program over the past six seasons, but getting two wins at the Frozen Four is a different experience.
In addition, Larson and the Huskies routed Minnesota State 7-2 last season when the two teams played at the Mariucci Classic. While both are different teams, the way St. Cloud State defeated the Mavericks - scoring early and putting pressure on Minnesota State - has been a successful blueprint for several WCHA teams this season. It is something worth keeping an eye on for Thursday afternoon.
Neutral fans should cheer if: What do you think about fairy-tale endings? The team that could never win in the NCAA Tournament, the one that had its most talented team last season not get its chance, the one representing the final opportunity for a seven-decade-old WCHA to get one last title, would be one for the group in southern Minnesota.
Three more players to watch: Besides the aforementioned #8 F- Nathan Smith (WPG), #5 F- Jake Jaremko (Undrafted), #29 G- Dryden McKay (Undrafted), #14 F - Ryan Sandelin (Undrafted), #15 F- Julian Napravnik (Undrafted), #23 D - Jake Livingstone (Undrafted)
St. Cloud State (19-10-0):
Why the Huskies will win its first national championship: No line in the previous set of previews aged better than "St. Cloud State has been at its best in the NCAA Tournament when expectations are lowered." The Huskies made the most of being a No. 2 seed, coming back in back-to-back games against Boston schools to advance to its second Frozen Four (and second FF held in Pittsburgh).
Coming into the Frozen Four, St. Cloud State continues to fly under the radar as much as a team can in college hockey's final weekend. Showing resilience, the team continues to be a tough out. That's beyond important this time of single-elimination year. The Huskies got two solid performances from David Hrenak, along with a depth of scoring throughout the lineup. Micah Miller stepping up in the Albany Regional and scoring in both games was a positive sign; especially given the injury Easton Brodzinski suffered.
Why the Huskies will lose to Minnesota State: St. Cloud State will need to play without its leading goal scorer after Brodzinski suffered a season-ending injury in the win over Boston College. The Huskies players showed they were capable of winning against top teams with players like Miller and Nolan Walker stepping up. Still, they will need to do it two more times. Missing Brodzinski's 13 goals makes it an easier task for McKay and the Mavericks defense.
At the same time, as much as the ability to come back from an early deficit can be a strength, it can also be a detriment if relied upon constantly. There are only so many times a team can come back before it comes back to bite them, as Minnesota State showed in the Loveland Regional final.
Neutral fans should cheer if: Were you a fan of the Virginia NCAA men's basketball redemption story from 2019? Because St. Cloud State is essentially the NCAA men's hockey version of Virginia times 2 or 3. Add in the underdog story and overcoming injury and you could go much worse in picking a team to cheer for as a neutral fan.
Three more players to watch: Besides #29 F- Veeti Miettinen (TOR) and #19 F- Sam Hentges (MIN) (Brodzinski was originally the third), #25 D- Nick Perbix (TBL), #34 G- David Hrenak (LAK), #20 F- Nolan Walker (undrafted)
Minnesota Duluth (15-10-1):
Why the Bulldogs will win its fourth national championship: The same reason why Minnesota Duluth won its second and third championships: Ric Flair rules. To be the man, you got to beat the man. Until proven otherwise, no one is beating the Bulldogs come tourney time.
It wasn't pretty. It wasn't easy. After nearly seeing a late 2-0 lead disappear against No. 1 overall seed North Dakota, UMD survived three OT posts and an overturned goal to win the longest NCAA Hockey Tournament game (both the program's ninth straight NCAA Tournament and OT win). Both Ryan Fanti and Zach Stejskal showed up in goal and the Bulldogs got a winning goal from an unlikely source in Luke Mylymok. Add in the experience from Scott Sandelin and UMD's leadership group of Nick Swaney, Noah Cates and Cole Koepke, and the championship framework remains.
Minnesota Duluth has both won only one of its last eight games in regulation and can be considered a favorite. That's the duality of being the team to beat in the NCAA Tournament.
Why the Bulldogs will lose to UMass: At a certain point, going beyond the one win - as magnificent as it was - takes away a little bit of the shine. It was one win. Minnesota Duluth did not need to play a second game after first-round opponent Michigan withdrew from the tournament. Against North Dakota, the Bulldogs were outshot and gave up the majority of Grade A opportunities.
Playing UMass, the Minutemen are older, more experienced, and feature more depth than when the two teams met in Buffalo two years ago. The team is comfortably winning both tight, defensive games against hot goalies (see: UMass Lowell win) and offensive shootouts. If Massachusetts, the closest team remaining to UND stylistically, can follow a similar plan, cashing in on its opportunities like UMass has throughout its unbeaten streak and others against UMD have during the last six weeks, it would not be a surprise to see the run end.
Neutral fans should cheer if: Do you like dynasties? How you answer will decide whether or not Minnesota Duluth will be the team for you. The Bulldogs can become the first team since Michigan in the 1950s to win three consecutive national championships and the first to ever reach four consecutive national championship games with a win Thursday. If that works, welcome aboard the Bulldogs Express. If not, well there are three other teams to cheer.
Three more players to watch: Besides #23 F- Nick Swaney (MIN), #17 F- Cole Koepke (TBL), #5 D- Wyatt Kaiser (CHI), #20 F- Jackson Cates (Undrafted), #10 F- Kobe Roth (Undrafted), #22 D- Matt Cairns (EDM)
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