2021 Bracketology 101: How Many Teams From Each Conference Make The Men's NCAA Hockey Tournament?

In these uncertain times that is the 2020-21 NCAA hockey season, bracketology requires an unknown subjectivity. 

It's not so cut-and-paste. The Pairwise formula, long the staple of deciding who gets in and whose bubble gets burst, will not be used for the 2021 NCAA Tournament. Limited non-conference games due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic take away its usefulness. For the first time in a long time, teams will be compared to one another by the eye test.

Hello, old, smoky backrooms.

Being a bracketologist the past few seasons, this year's NCAA Tournament selection fascinates me. It's less about structured rules or putting teams in the best locations to limit travel and more about answering what the Pairwise tries to do each season. Everything is subjective in 2020-21 college hockey, including ties.

So for this season, rather than dive in and place teams where I think they would best fit, it makes sense to first take a step back. I need to put on another bracketologist hat. I need to get in the mind of the selection committee. I need to be able to answer some major methodology questions in order to get to the fun, flashy picks.

Let's start with the big one: How many teams from each conference make the 16-team men's hockey NCAA Tournament?

In past years, the selection criteria made this easy to answer. Non-conference games gave a clear ranking between teams in different conferences. The 10 best at-large teams in the Pairwise rankings made the Tourney, no matter the conference.

There are still 10 at-large bids to go with the six automatic ones for conference tournament winners. (Yes, even the ECAC, with only four teams contesting this season, keeps an automatic bid.) With few non-conference games and no Pairwise to use as criteria, however, picking teams from each conference requires a closer look.

It remains easy to rank teams in the same conference to one another. Ranking conferences? Not so much. 

The Selection Committee seems to be aware of this issue, with NCAA men's hockey ice chair Mike Kemp telling USCHO's Jim Connolly that it plans on using the traditional criteria for ranking teams in-conference to one another and be subjective for the number of teams.

If Pairwise was used this season, the lack of comparisons would mean the NCHC, as of this writing, would be on track for one, maybe two bids. (Not coincidentally, NCHC Commissioner Josh Fenton, for a good self-serving reason, has been out front to use more historical data to choose teams.) Even taking away Fenton's idea, any person watching NCAA Hockey this season would agree the conference deserves more than one at-large bid.

With only in-conference play to compare and some eye test subjectivity, let's start by ranking the minimum and maximum bids each conference should and could get.

Atlantic Hockey: Comparisons might be a little tricky. Split between eastern and western pods, AHA had an unbalanced schedule. For example, AIC, winning the regular season for an unprecedented third straight year, did not play Robert Morris (14-7-0) nor Canisius (8-5-0). Neither did Army West Point (13-5-1).

Historically, Atlantic Hockey has never only once had two teams in the NCAA Tournament. Only twice did a team finish high enough to be an at-large. While this would be a year where going off the Pairwise would benefit AHA, it's not being used. Most likely, the lone bid goes to the winner of Atlantic Hockey conference tournament. There might be a question of wheher AIC, at 13-3-0 could get an at-large bid without winning the AHA autobid, however, two of those losses being non-conference losses to Quinnipiac gives the committee a point of comparison. 

Minimum: 1
Maximum: 2

Big Ten: Barring a couple series lost due to teams paused for Covid, the Big Ten will play a true round-robin schedule. On one hand, it gives a true look of how each team fares against one another. On the other hand, there are reasons for why teams end up where they are, such as Wisconsin and Michigan losing top players to the World Juniors for large stretches during the first half.

Entering the final weekend of play, there is a gap at the top. Minnesota (19-5-0) and Wisconsin (17-8-1) can both win the regular season title. Michigan (13-8-1), the only team to defeat the Badgers since the end of January, has at times been in the same tier. Mel Pearson's team gets another chance for a signature win, facing the Gophers this weekend. Notre Dame and Penn State - who face each other this weekend - sit in the next tier below Michigan. 

Historically, the Big Ten has struggled to get more than three schools in the NCAA Tournament. With enough of a look at how the teams play, the committee will have to decide through the lack of non-conference games where the top. It's likely the Big Ten gets at least two teams (Minnesota and Wisconsin) regardless. After that, decisions need to be made.

Minimum: 2

Maximum: 4

ECAC: With only four teams participating and more non-conference games than anyone else, this season features a much different ECAC than normal. Quinnipiac has shown itself to be the class of the conference, losing once in its last 14 games after a slow start. If anyone gets an at-large bid, it's QU. Even then, the Bobcats' resume features quality wins with some tough losses to Bowling Green (twice), St. Lawrence, and a 2-2-2 record against Clarkson (the only other ECAC team above .500) that does not make it a guarantee.

Minimum: 1

Maximum: 2

Independent: College hockey's two independents - Arizona State and Long Island University - took different paths to the same result. ASU joined up with the seven Big Ten schools, going on a season-long Midwestern roadtrip. LIU, meanwhile, just ended its inaugural season with a schedule mostly against nearby Atlantic Hockey schools. 

Both independents will end 2020-21 below .500 and therefore miss the NCAA Tournament, ending a two-year run for the Sun Devils (currently 6-15-3 and not participating in the Big Ten tournament). Still, the Sharks deserve kudos for finishing 3-10-0 after not existing this time last year.

Hockey East: Taking away the argument whether or not it makes sense to play sports in a global pandemic, few things better summed up this season than Hockey East going to week-to-week schedules. If nearby teams (eastern version) can play one another? Great. Heck, Maine spent the entire season on the road.

The end result is an incomplete system of comparisons and a season without a regular season champion. In fact, Hockey East already did the dirty work, creating a power index (HEPI) to rank teams. It's the closest anyone is getting to some Pairwise numbers among conferences.

Of the HEPI, the current top-3 have a good argument to be among the teams chosen. Boston College and UMass have been among the top teams national polls all season. BU, who started late and just hit the 13-game minimum required to be NCAA Tournament eligible, went 3-1-0 against those two teams. Then there's Providence, UConn and Northeastern, all of whom are in the next tier and possibly making final cases to be on the right side of the bubble. 

Minimum: 3

Maximum: 5

 

NCHC: Home to the past four national champions, the NCHC season featured both a first-half pod in Omaha and a second-half of travel to nearby teams (western version). Entering the final weekend of regular season play, North Dakota (18-4-1) won its second straight Penrose Cup, followed by St. Cloud State (14-9-0) and Minnesota Duluth (13-8-2) playing one another for second place.

Omaha (13-9-1) sits in fourth while Denver (9-12-1) and Western Michigan (10-11-3), both just under .500, are in a spot where each team has a resume of quality wins against the top-3 mixed with bad losses. Without any non-conference competition, these will be a test for a committee.

Minimum: 3

Maximum: 5

WCHA: Minnesota State became the first team to win four straight MacNaughton Cups with a 16-3-1 season. The Mavericks can rest easy about being in the NCAA Tournament in a few weeks, but that it's a battle for the rest of the conference. Four teams - Bemidji State, Bowling Green, Lake Superior State, and Michigan Tech - find themselves in the next tier behind Minnesota State yet with resumes that could use an extra win or two.

Minimum: 1

Maximum: 3

In recent seasons, the conference has gotten two teams in the NCAA Tournament. The WCHA can make more arguments for the committee and it might need to in a few weeks. To me, this is the most interesting race down the stretch - something I'll get into in the next bracketology blog.

Thanks for reading.

--
If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

Thirty-One Seconds: Honoring An Unfinished 2019-20 Season

Thirty-One Seconds. The time it takes for one shift in a hockey game, a single 31 second stretch shaped the 2019-20 Big Ten regular season.

Trailing Minnesota 2-1 in the third period, Penn State’s Nikita Pavlychev tied the February 22nd game with his 7th goal of the year. The roar from the goal announcement had yet to linger before Pavlychev found freshman Kevin Wall and put the Nittany Lions ahead 3-2.

Penn State’s ensuing win and six-point swing put the Nittany Lions three ahead of the Gophers, Ohio State and Michigan when the following weekend and February came to an end. One shift made a world of difference. For the first time in program history, the Nittany Lions, who began the 2010s by announcing a men’s hockey program, were regular-season champions.

****

Outside of October’s eternal new season hopes, perhaps no month springs college hockey optimism quite like February. A number of teams find themselves hitting their stride after taking some lumps in slow starts. Others spent months building up to this point, being the best of the best and willing to prove it each weekend. With conference tournaments ahead for all but a small handful of teams, almost every team believes in its heart of hearts that it has a shot.

March and April get championship credit. February, the culmination of five months of the regular season, sits home to many more championship dreams.

Some of the best college hockey teams I’ve seen are ones who ran into a hot goalie with the game of his life, or had a single off night and did not make the Frozen Four. A nearly six-month grind that begins when leaves change colors and ends when flowers begin to bloom, the regular season does not get enough love.

Champions walk together. Even regular-season champions. However, the ones remembered more end up being the ones surviving the quick, short second season.

Let’s be honest. College hockey history gets written by those who have two fantastic weekends in March and April.

College Hockey Stock Report: October 21, 2019

Another weekend gone answered some questions.

We learned Wisconsin can win defensive battles. We learned the Stefanos Lekkas and Jeremy Swayman experiences continue on for another season. We learned it's never too early for a players-only meeting, as was the case after Penn State followed up a 7-0 shutout win with a 4-0 shutout loss. (We're also learning that Hockey Bear is taking no prisoners this year.) We heard the Battle Hymn in Minneapolis, had an amazing matchup in Mankato, first wins for Merrimack and Colgate, and upsets in Columbus and Boston.

We saw the first-ever instance of 3x3 OT in women's D1 hockey when Minnesota State "defeated" Ohio State to take the extra conference point. Once again, Robert Morris took it to a perennial powerhouse, tying and falling 6-5 to Clarkson.

All in all, it was a quality weekend. Here's what is going on throughout the college hockey landscape as this week's stock report recaps who is doing well, who is on their way down and what trends should be followed.

Podcast: The Pipeline Show (October 18, 2019)

Earlier this week, I went on The Pipeline Show with Guy Flaming to discuss the Big Ten as part of its college hockey segment. We touched on all seven Big Ten teams and who to watch as kind of a preview to the season.

You can listen below.


--
If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

University of Minnesota Men's Hockey 2019-20 Full Preview

Throughout the summer, a building under construction greets me each morning, smiling with glass windows for teeth as it stands over the rest of the skyline.

It’s surrounded by some of the nicest buildings in town, many of which are newly completed. A pair have seen their best days after being recently overhauled, reaching new heights and reputations. One is making the most of its latest name change. Another nearby building seems to be the envy of the neighborhood and town. That one is an old friend who keeps winning awards and enjoying being considered the model building of both the area and town. All of them are moving on yet continue to judge themselves against the one currently under construction.

As the neighborhood continues to undergo changes, it joins a town where new, splashy buildings making an immediate impact on the scene mixed with some forgotten ones finding a renaissance, growing in favor.

Construction has made the skyline unrecognizable from the beginning of the decade. Many of the ones who perennially grab attention have been overshadowed and dropped off lists as new tastes emerge, challenging the old guard. Several of those buildings are making cosmetic and wholesale changes to keep up with the rest of the neighborhood.

That’s been the case for the building which greets me. Scaffolding exists, along with a crane and an observation deck devoid of people in its second year of renovations. Signs of change slowly appear on its young face.

Obviously, 600 words are not enough to preview Minnesota’s 2019-20 season and the job Bob Motzko is doing in Dinkytown. The Gophers enter Motzko’s second year as head coach still a work in progress with 12 newcomers in a group that’s largely of his own choosing. By age the youngest D1 men’s hockey team on average and by size the biggest, they add to a team which finished 7-2 over its final 9 games and third in the Big Ten. At the same time, Minnesota missed its second consecutive NCAA Tournament and third in the past four years after a run of six straight Big Ten and WCHA regular-season championships.

Let’s break it down more in-depth.

60 Days. 60 Teams. 600 Words (or Less): College Hockey Previews By Conference

With the men's college hockey season officially beginning this week, it's time to be prepared before any banners are raised and pucks get dropped.

Photo Credit: Nathan Wells

Since July, I've profiled all 60 teams, one by one and 600 words at a time. All can be found in order here, but rather than forcing all to go back, it seems easier for people to find them by publishing all teams by conference. Read up on your team, your rivals, your conference mates and that team with the NHL draft pick from your NHL team.

Atlantic Hockey

Air Force
American International College
Army West Point
Bentley
Canisius
Holy Cross
Mercyhurst
Niagara
RIT
Robert Morris
Sacred Heart

Big Ten

Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Ohio State
Notre Dame
Penn State
Wisconsin

ECAC

Brown
Clarkson
Colgate
Cornell
Dartmouth
Harvard
Princeton
Quinnipiac
RPI
St. Lawrence
Union
Yale

Hockey East

Boston College
Boston University
Connecticut
Maine
Massachusetts
Merrimack
Northeastern
New Hampshire
Providence College
UMass Lowell
Vermont

Independent

Arizona State

NCHC

Colorado College
Denver
Miami
Minnesota Duluth
North Dakota
Omaha
St. Cloud State
Western Michigan

WCHA

Alabama Huntsville
Alaska
Alaska Anchorage
Bowling Green
Bemidji State
Ferris State
Lake Superior State
Michigan Tech
Minnesota State
Northern Michigan


--
If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

60 Days. 60 Teams. 600 Words (or Less): Notre Dame

Notre Dame

2018-19 Record: 23-14-3 (11-11-2, 2nd in Big Ten)
Head Coach: Jeff Jackson, 15th Year
Top returning scorer: Cal Burke (12G-18A)
Top returning goaltender: Cale Morris (Sr.)

Only Cale Morris can make a .930% save percentage seem like an off-year.

The Fighting Irish goaltender regressed slightly to the mean after his Mike Richter Award-winning 2017-18 season (AKA the one where it became apparent no goaltender will ever win the Hobey). So did Notre Dame, going from the national championship game to losing in the NCAA regional championship.

If it's difficult to go two steps in college football circles without discussing Notre Dame, you almost need to be in South Bend or an undersized walk-on football player to hear the Fighting Irish's recent run of success discussed. Back-to-back Frozen Fours were followed up by Notre Dame winning its second straight Big Ten conference tournament title.

However, Jeff Jackson's biggest under-the-radar win would be getting back Morris for his senior season. He's not alone. Cam Morrison also returns instead of signing with Colorado.

What's New: A home-and-home series with Boston College. Really.

Notre Dame and Boston College plan on attending each other's rinks on the weekend of December 6-8. That despite being separated by four states and 900 miles. It makes the home-and-home series with Bowling Green the week before seem almost like a trip down I-80 to grab some sugar and Waffle House. The Fighting Irish also play a home-and-home series with Western Michigan, but not Michigan as has been the case in recent years.

Incoming freshman forward Trevor Janicke was selected by the Vancouver Canucks in the fifth round of June's NHL Draft. The Maple Grove native is one of two first-year Minnesotans on the Notre Dame roster (Medina's Ryan Bischel), continuing the state's pipeline straight out to Compton Family Ice Arena. Among the eight first-year players are five forwards, two D and Bischel in goal.

Besides several seniors like Dylan Malmquist finally graduating, the Fighting Irish suffered one early departure. Defender Andrew Peeke signed with Columbus following his junior season.

Closing Thoughts: At this point, the rest of the Big Ten knows what to expect from Notre Dame. It'd be kind to say the Fighting Irish is not the most flashy team, but that's exactly how the gold-helmeted group finds success. The team plays a suffocating system and one that keeps shutting down an offensive-friendly conference. (Other than the 9-1 loss at Penn State.) It's no surprise to see Jeff Jackson's team lead the conference in goals against per game (2.27) or have the second-best PK (81.9%).

Notre Dame loses its top defensive pair in Bobby Nardella and Peeke, however, everyone else on the blue line comes back. For all the defensive talk, I'm intrigued whether another underclassman takes off like Colin Thiessen and Michael Graham did the past two seasons. Graham, who led all Big Ten freshmen in goals, was a force in the second half with 11 of his 12 goals happening after mid-January.

Adding them, along with Morrison and Cal Burke to the returning goaltender and defensive core quietly keeps Notre Dame in the Big Ten and national conversation. That's the way to expect a team backed by Morris. Nothing gets past the now-senior.

As another school mentioned frequently, #HockeyNeedsMoreCale. Notre Dame agrees wholeheartedly and, for for a final year, happily (re)takes up the mantle.

Recent 60 Days. 60 Teams. 600 Words (or Less) Features
AIC
St. Cloud State
Minnesota State
Clarkson
Every Team So Far

--
If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

60 Days. 60 Teams. 600 Words (or Less): Ohio State

Ohio State University

2018-19 Record: 20-11-5 (13-7-4, 1st in Big Ten)
Head Coach: Steve Rohlik, 7th Year
Top returning scorer: Tanner Laczynski (10G-20A)
Top returning goaltender: Tommy Nappier (Jr.)

Without fail, a team or two each year peaks too early and wishes the season ended in February.

This year, Ohio State comes to mind. The Buckeyes enter 2019-20 in the best shape in program history. OSU built off its 2018 Frozen Four appearance by being the Big Ten's lone dominant squad. When things went right, Ohio State was a veteran team using its experience and a season-long goalie platoon of Tommy Nappier and Sean Romeo to its advantage.

As every other school beat up on one another for hard-earned splits, Ohio State was trading in sweeps. During a three-month stretch, the Buckeyes went 15-2-3 and Steve Rohlik's team looked to be the conference's best hope at another Frozen Four.

Instead, Ohio State's year ended on a 1-7-1 skid which began when Minnesota came into Columbus and swept the Buckeyes, and concluded at the West Regional with Denver shutting out OSU in only its second game in four weeks. With times looking like 2018-19 being Ohio State's year to make a national title run, the Buckeyes march on trying to prove the window is not closed.

What's New: Not scheduling the other two Ohio schools. What in the name of Sloopy is going on?

The Buckeyes are not guaranteed to face either Bowling Green or Miami. Ohio State does participate in the Ice Breaker tournament the Falcons host, however, the two don't face one another in the opening round. OSU also travels to Las Vegas for the Fortress Invitational with Army, Providence, and Cornell.

Ohio State rewarded Rohlik with a contract extension through 2023-24. Among this year's rookie class is 2019 3rd round pick Layton Ahac (D) and Michael Gildon (F).

Last but certainly not least, Ohio State gets to raise a regular-season banner. The only other time the Buckeyes won a regular-season title was the CCHA's inaugural year in a four-team league.

Closing Thoughts: Ohio State finds itself in a weird spot. After four seasons moving up the Big Ten standings, the Buckeyes reached the top. There's nowhere to go up. Some big-name schools would be happy with three straight NCAA Tournament appearances and a Frozen Four appearance.

The challenge now is maintaining that success without taking a step back following Big Ten career leading scorer Mason Jobst, Dakota Joshua, Sasha Larocque, Romeo and several key players graduating. Tanner Laczynski remains one of the league's top players and Gustaf Westlund looked like he was ready at times to take the next step. He'll get that chance.

In a way, the Buckeyes were the Dads of the Big Ten. When the rest of the league were out late scoring goals and being as entertaining as possible, Steve Rohlik made sure OSU was responsible with the car and play in 3-1 games. Ohio State does not need to tinker too much to keep being in good shape, unlike other B1G schools. Several veterans plus the majority of its defense and Nappier, who likely gets a bigger role in goal after posting a .926% save percentage, return.

That's the good news as long as the team didn't miss the timing to buy a sports car before it appears to be a midlife crisis.

Recent 60 Days. 60 Teams. 600 Words (or Less) Features
Arizona State
Harvard
Bowling Green
Penn State
Every Team So Far

--
If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

60 Days. 60 Teams. 600 Words (or Less): Penn State

Penn State

2018-19 Record: 22-15-2 (11-12-1, 4th in Big Ten)
Head Coach: Guy Gadowsky, 8th Year Varsity
Top returning scorers: Alex Limoges (23G-27A) and Evan Barratt (16G-27A)
Top returning goaltender: Peyton Jones (Sr.)

Penn State, for my money, was college hockey's most entertaining team. No matter what happened, there was bound to be a spectacle in a season filled by Sportscenter Top 10 goals. No lead was safe. No red light or Coach's Challenge went unused.

The Nittany Lions put up a goal-scoring bonanza, leading the nation with 4.54 goals per game. Midway through last season, Penn State averaged a total (5.22) on pace to be a 20 year high. PSU ended with more than half a goal on average than the second-place team and over a goal than the fourth-place team.

Penn State historically has never been afraid to shoot. Adding in players who can build upon the mantra and create offensive chances, PSU has multiple weapons throughout its lineup.

🚨 LIMOOOOO 🚨

Off the rebound from Barratt and Sucese!! Penn State leads 4-0 at 1:35 of the second period!! #WeAre #HockeyValley pic.twitter.com/tJhdjsB2Ee

— Penn State Men’s Hockey (@PennStateMHKY) January 27, 2019

All three return, BTW.

What's New: Stability to end its first decade. Six of Penn State's seven players with 14 or more goals return. Several could have left. Among the 11 returning forwards are Limoges, who after 12 goals in his final 14 games, had some buzz as an undrafted free agent. (Nate Sucese and Brandon Biro each had nine during that stretch.) Barratt is a Chicago Blackhawks draft pick back for his junior season.

Guy Gadowsky also gets back forward Aarne Talvitie. Talvitie, who had 16 points in 17 games, missed the second half after getting injured captaining Finland to a WJC gold medal.

Of PSU's nine newcomers, Kevin Wall was drafted by Carolina in the sixth round of June's NHL Draft. Wall had 31 goals for Chilliwack (BCHL). Clayton Phillips transfers in from Minnesota.

Closing Thoughts: So far this has been positive. So it's time to put a big "but" to Penn State being college hockey's most entertaining team.

The offense is historically fun to watch. But the reason PSU is entertaining has to do with no lead being safe. On either side.

The Nittany Lions were an elite offense mixed with one of the nation's worst defenses (56th of 60 teams - only Western Michigan and them had a positive goal differential among the bottom 20). Goalie Peyton Jones barely was above .900%. On multiple occasions last season PSU blew 4-1 third period leads. Opponents scored 5+ goals 13 times. Remarkably, Penn State won three of those.

Any team who is the last one out can point to a number of factors (both internal and external) that barely kept them out of the NCAA Tournament. That's true with Penn State, who had an opportunity to win an automatic berth against Notre Dame.

A healthy Talvitie adds an important element. Limoges is the nation's leading returning scorer. However, whether it's Jones rediscovering his end-of-year freshman form or an older blue line improving vastly defensively, the Nittany Lions, returning the nation's top offense, is a respectable defense away from being a title contender. Seven D return, led by the Cole Hults-Paul DeNaples pairing.

While Penn State missing the NCAA Tournament was lost entertainment, it fits in with college hockey in 2019. The teams on ESPN in April weren't the ones on Sportscenter during the regular season. They were the ones who defensively were responsible and limited opponents opportunities and goals.

Recent 60 Days. 60 Teams. 600 Words (or Less) Features
Western Michigan
Union
Minnesota
North Dakota
Every Team So Far

--
If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

60 Days. 60 Teams. 600 Words (or Less): Minnesota

University of Minnesota

2018-19 Record: 18-16-4 (11-10-3, 3rd in Big Ten)
Head Coach: Bob Motzko, 2nd Year
Top returning scorers: Brannon McManus (14G-12A) and Sammy Walker (10G-16A)
Top returning goaltender: None

It's finally Minnesota's day in the series. So much to discuss. So few words.

Bob Motzko's start behind the Gopher bench began by tying then routing UMD in a way no other team did all season. Even then, Motzko correctly said there was work to be done.

Home losses to two of the five worst teams nationally burrowed the Gophers into needing a miracle to make the NCAA Tournament. Inconsistency led to Motzko tinkering and the team being near .500 all year. A five-forward power-play unit bolstered scoring. Hot goaltending helped when an opportunistic offense went cold. Minnesota had 5+ goals seven times contrasted by an early 12 game stretch where the Gophers scored two or fewer goals eight times.

Minnesota clicked down the stretch, going on a 7-1 run with wins over three NCAA Tournament teams. The Gophers finished third in the conference before an OT loss to Notre Dame in the Big Ten semifinals ended the miracle bid.

What's New: Goalies. All those goaltenders who started games? They're gone, along with a large senior class.

Junior starter Mat Robson signed an entry-level contract with the Minnesota Wild. Two-time B1G Goaltender of the Year Eric Schierhorn and third-string goalie Brock Kautz both graduated.

With no returning goalie, the job looks to be between freshman Jared Moe and Michigan transfer Jack LaFontaine.

Robson isn't the only early departure for the Gophers. All-American Rem Pitlick, who had 31 points in 23 second-half games, signed with Nashville following his junior season. Clayton Phillips transferred to Penn State.

The home schedule includes the return of the Mariucci Classic. All four Minnesota teams will be at Mariucci this season in addition to a Thanksgiving weekend series against rival North Dakota.

Not-So Closing Thoughts: Look, this will not be my only 2019-20 preview for Minnesota. A more in-depth profile will be written somewhere in one form or another.

Until then, for a team whose identity for much of last season was inconsistency, there's more change and smaller, unanswered questions.

Turnover in players means this is quickly becoming Motzko's team. 10 of the 12 new players were recruited by him. That includes 2019 first-round pick Ryan Johnson and 39th overall pick Jackson Lacombe. Both defensemen have been on the upswing of their development. Bryce Brodzinski was 2019 Minnesota Mr. Hockey. Under the radar is Ben Meyers, whose 33 goals were third among all USHL players. His scoring touch would be a boost to add to 2018-19 Big Ten freshman of the year Sammy Walker and Sampo Ranta.

One big question concerning Minnesota is whether talented underclassmen can step up and lead after losing so many key players. The Gophers don't have the luxury of Robson stealing games early when the team was heavily outshot. (Minnesota was outshot by 5.58 shots per game and the only team in the bottom-20 of that stat with an above .500 record.) Only Brannon McManus returns on the top power-play unit.

2018-19's final month saw positive steps and that Motzko's team can play with anyone. Minnesota had the second-highest PWR quality win bonus of any school. The Gophers showed what is possible. Now it's about putting it together.

Recent 60 Days. 60 Teams. 600 Words (or Less) Features
North Dakota
UMass Lowell
Lake Superior State
Colorado College
Every Team So Far

--
If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

60 Days. 60 Teams. 600 Words (or Less): Wisconsin

University of Wisconsin

2018-19 Record: 14-18-5 (9-10-5, T-5th in Big Ten)
Head Coach: Tony Granato, 4th Year
Top returning scorer: Sean Dhooghe (15G-11A)
Top returning goaltenders: Daniel Lebedeff (So.) and Jack Berry (Sr.)

This should be the one where a plan comes together for Wisconsin. It's visible despite wondering when will be the season the Badgers complete a turnaround.

Five years passed since Wisconsin's last NCAA Tournament berth, the longest drought for the Badgers since restarting the program in the 1960s.

To be honest, Wisconsin not making the NCAA Tournament under Tony Granato has been surprising. Maybe that's due to year 1 where the Badgers came within an OT goal of winning the Big Ten conference tournament. Maybe that's due to some of the big moves and players, or the hoopla of Granato coming in to save the program after it hit rock bottom in Mike Eaves' final two seasons.

Change may not be immediate, but it can be seen with Wisconsin despite another Liam Folkes season-ending OT goal. The Badgers could play in an 8-2 loss and rebound for a 7-3 win. Neither result was too surprising. Wisconsin had spurts of success, most prominently towards the end of the first half with a six-game unbeaten streak and not losing to Michigan. There were struggles defensively and on the penalty kill, where UW tied for 56th of 60 teams. Both goalies had sub-.900 save percentages.

What's New: The Badgers are already practicing, preparing for an international trip to Vancouver for exhibition games Labor Day weekend.

There's not too much else. Oh, wait...

Wisconsin's seven first-year players include the 2019 fifth overall pick (Alex Turcotte), the 15th overall pick who broke Phil Kessel's NTDP goal record (Cole Caufield), and the Canadian Junior A player of the year who looks to be a 2020 first-round pick (Dylan Holloway). All three are forwards who add to an offense that returns five players with 20 or more points.

Closing Thoughts: There have been reasons to be impressed with Granato's recruiting. He's now restocked the Badgers' cabinet. Between this year's freshman class, last year's first-round pick K'Andre Miller returning healthy, Sean Dhooghe fighting guys 18 inches taller, and a young blue line getting a year older, Madison has talent.

Now the challenge is whether it comes together. On paper, Wisconsin should be a team that takes the next step.

It wouldn't be a big surprise if Wisconsin does what a lot of teams want and ends up the next UMass. Going beyond easy Cale Makar/Badger freshmen comparisons, what stands out is those freshmen forwards join a team that got 2.22 goals per game from its underclassmen, who all return. Only UMass had more.

Still, there's a catch. For as much as the foundation is there for the offense to improve, Wisconsin's defense and goaltending needs to take that step as well in an offensive-friendly Big Ten. Peter Tischke will be missed and losing Miller for the final month didn't help matters either. Wisconsin badly missed him during the Penn State playoff series (despite UW taking a game, PSU was the better team in all three games). Not even Kyle Hayton transferring solved Wisconsin's defensive issues.

If that happens, the Badgers should end the drought. If this isn't the year where the plan comes together, it'll be one where questions about Wisconsin need to start being asked.

Recent 60 Days. 60 Teams. 600 Words (or Less) Features
Michigan
Maine
Yale
Michigan State
Every Team So Far

--
If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

60 Days. 60 Teams. 600 Words (or Less): Michigan

Michigan

2018-19 Record: 13-16-7 (9-10-5, T-5th in Big Ten)
Head Coach: Mel Pearson, 3rd Year
Top returning scorer: Will Lockwood (16G-15A)
Top returning goaltenders: Strauss Mann (So.) and Hayden Lavigne (Sr.)

In an alternate universe, there's a world where Michigan made back-to-back Frozen Fours in 2018 & 2019. It's a world where things went the Wolverines' way, where injuries didn't affect key players and the team played with the same hunger and desperation it had during a hot second half. It's likely a world where Jack Hughes accelerated and joined his brother.

But that isn't this world.

In this universe, the Wolverines return to a familiar spot. Replacing elite underclassmen with elite freshmen. Needing to move forward when things don't go the way it seems on paper.

Michigan enters 2019-20 off a Big Ten sixth-place finish and missing the NCAA Tournament a year after being in the Frozen Four. In a reminder no two seasons are the same, the Wolverines, returning the majority of its core, was unable to get the same amount of goaltending, offense, health and second half bounces.

What's New: The constant cycle continues. Two first-round NHL draft picks are gone, replaced by two first-round NHL draft picks.

Cam York (14th overall to Philadelphia), the highest collegiate defenseman selected, replaces Quinn Hughes as the first-rounder on the blue line. Forward John Beecher (30th overall to Boston) replaces Josh Norris, who along with Hughes signed a pro contract after his sophomore season.

They aren't the only Wolverines going to the NHL. Assistant coach Brian Wiseman took the same job with Edmonton.

Pearson also continues bringing in grad transfers as RPI leading scorer Jacob Hayhurst and BU defender Shane Switzer join Michigan.

Closing Thoughts: Undoubtedly, Michigan will want to bounce back from a disappointing season by its standards. Even with injuries to Norris - the second straight season a key forward suffers a season-ending injury at the WJC - and Hughes late being out of its control, the Wolverines expect to be contending. Especially when a truly dynamic defenseman like Hughes, who so much of Michigan's play ran through, returns for a second year.

Overall, Pearson's first season went about as well as it could. His second saw a 3-8 record in one-goal games and two goaltenders with sub-.900% save percentages despite outshooting opponents by 7.5 shots per game.

Strauss Mann was better (.906%) in the second half. Losing Norris, who until injured found the consistency expected from a top collegian, hurts, but keeping Will Lockwood and Luke Martin is a bonus. Same with another year of growth for both Pastujov brothers and Jake Slaker.

Beecher should be entertaining. York brings offensive production from the blue line, which at times was heavily caught out on odd-man rushes. After a snap back to reality, the Wolverines get the chance to show which Michigan season - Frozen Four run or sixth place - represents the Wolverines under Pearson.

Or maybe it's a bit of both. Given the slim margin between success and failure, consider how close the middle of the Big Ten was to one another.

Michigan gave up a late extra attacker goal to Wisconsin to send the regular-season finale to overtime. Each of the four options to end overtime (i.e. Michigan wins in OT, loses in 3-on-3/shootout, etc.) provided Michigan with a different standing in the conference ranging from third place to sixth.

Recent 60 Days. 60 Teams. 600 Words (or Less) Features
Maine
Yale
Michigan State
New Hampshire
Every Team So Far

--
If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

60 Days. 60 Teams. 600 Words (or Less): Michigan State

Michigan State

2018-19 Record: 12-19-5 (8-12-4, 7th in Big Ten)
Head Coach: Danton Cole, 3rd Year
Top returning scorers: Patrick Khodorenko (18G-19A) and Mitchell Lewandowski (16G-18A)
Top returning goaltenders: John Lethemon (Sr.) and Drew DeRidder (So.)

The KHL Line is dead. Long live the KHL Line.

Michigan State brings the Big Ten to this series after the second and final season of one college hockey's more memorable lines recently. The KHL Line made up of Patrick Khodorenko, Taro Hirose and Mitchell Lewandowski had nearly 50% of MSU's goals. They led the Spartans at both even strength and on the power play together.

It's not often a one-line team succeeds (and MSU did finish seventh in the Big Ten once again), however, Michigan State had some success. Teams knew what they needed to contain the Spartans. In spite of that, the KHL Line was able to succeed. (Just going to link to this 7-7 January tie against Ohio State as an example.) Hirose tied for the national lead in points with 50. Lewandowski co-led the Big Ten in game-winning goals.

What's New: Needing to replace Hirose. All three players in the KHL Line had eligibility remaining, however, Hirose chose to forgo his senior season and sign with the Detroit Red Wings. Volunteer goalie coach Jason Muzzatti also went pro, joining the Carolina Hurricanes in the same role.

One new player who could be of help is Josh Nodler. The fifth-round pick of the Calgary Flames had 17 goals for the Fargo Force (USHL) during his draft-eligible season.

What else? Munn Ice Arena is expanding. Stop watching your offseason "Fixer Upper" because it's demo day!

Here we go! Ground has officially been broken on the Munn expansion! pic.twitter.com/dXGxHpTvmu

— MSU_Hockey (@MSU_Hockey) July 17, 2019

Michigan State is undergoing an $18.8 million renovation of its 6,000+ seat arena, which opened in 1974. When completed, Munn will have a new locker room, weight room and training areas that have become the norm throughout the rest of the Big Ten. It remains to be seen whether the visiting team still will walk uphill from the bench to a tiny area not fit for a locker room and skate sharpener.

Fun fact: One of the larger donators? Tom Izzo.

Closing Thoughts: Most teams would struggle with the loss of the nation's leading scorer and a Hobey Baker top-ten finalist. In Hirose, MSU loses a player who stirred the drink that was Michigan State's offense. It's difficult to convey how many passes and opportunities went through him. Of the games MSU scored a goal, there were only five that Hirose didn't end up with at least one point.

Still, that the Spartans only need to replace one of its triumvirate (Khodorenko and Lewandowski, while both being undrafted free agents, returned to East Lansing) can be seen as a slight win. The KHL Line is no more, but the foundation at least remains.

And that will be important for Danton Cole's team. With or without Hirose, finding secondary scoring is a necessity for a team that has taken steps in the right direction during Cole's first two seasons. (See: Drew DeRidder working his way into a goaltending platoon with John Lethemon, sweeping Cornell, Tommy Miller's play.) The highest scoring returnee outside the KHL Line had five goals. MSU not only needs to replace Hirose. The Spartans need to create offense.

The best way to stop one line? Force teams to work on shutting down a second line.

Recent 60 Days. 60 Teams. 600 Words (or Less) Features
New Hampshire
Boston College
Bemidji State
RIT
Every Team So Far

--
If you enjoyed this blog, you can follow Nate on Twitter and like/subscribe to his Facebook page. Thanks!

NHL Draft 2019: The Rest of The Big Ten and Upper Midwest

Friday's first round was a big night for the Big Ten.

Five of the nine players with college ties selected in the 2019 NHL Draft's first round will be attending Big Ten programs this fall. That total includes two players apiece from the University of Michigan and the University of Wisconsin, which had the highest drafted player in forward Alex Turcotte, chosen 5th overall by the Los Angeles Kings.

Overall, 19 players at or heading to Big Ten schools were drafted this weekend as all seven programs had at least one player hear their name called.

Additionally, 11 players either attending Upper Midwest schools or from Minnesota and attending schools outside the region were drafted this weekend.

All can be found below. For a summary of the University of Minnesota's NHL Draft weekend, click here.

BLOG: Analyzing the Big Ten's 2019-20 Non-Conference Schedule

Wednesday (June 5, 2019) saw most of the Big Ten teams announcing full 2019-20 schedules.

I already wrote some thoughts on Minnesota's schedule, but one that continues to stick is the Gopher non-conference schedule. From a name value and competition standpoint, Minnesota's foes outside the Big Ten hit on both. The Gophers will be tested.

So with the idea that, on (digital) paper, Minnesota's non-conference schedule should be tough, I wanted to see how it compared to the rest of the conference.

Turns out, of the six Big Ten schools who ended up releasing full schedules, Minnesota faces the toughest set of teams based on last year's Pairwise. That makes sense. The Gophers play two of the top three overall teams and are the only school who released a schedule to not play a team finishing in the bottom-10.

Minnesota's schedule also falls in line with other Big Ten trends, however. The Gophers scheduled nearby schools and old foes. There's little traveling - several schools only take one trip outside its home state - and a slant towards home games in the home/road split.

Each Big Ten non-conference schedule can be found below:

10 Initial Thoughts on Minnesota's 2019-20 Men's Hockey Schedule

Minnesota, along with the rest of the Big Ten, released its 2019-20 schedule on Wednesday (June 5, 2019). Several of these dates were known based on other schools already releasing schedules, but it's official now.

The full slate of 34 games can be found below:

University of Minnesota 2019-20 Men's Hockey Schedule

All dates Friday and Saturday unless noted otherwise
Oct 6: Mount Royal (Exhibition) (Sunday)
Oct 11-12: at Colorado College (NC)
Oct 18-19: vs. Niagara (NC)
Oct 25: vs. Minnesota Duluth (NC)
Oct 26: at Minnesota Duluth (NC)

Nov 1-2: vs. Notre Dame
Nov 8-9: at Michigan
Nov 15-16: vs. Penn State
Nov 22-23: vs. Wisconsin
Nov 28-29: vs. North Dakota (Thursday-Friday) (NC)

Dec 6-7: at Ohio State
Dec 28: vs. Bemidji State (Mariucci Classic) (Saturday) (NC)
Dec 29: vs. Minnesota State/St. Cloud State (Mariucci Classic) (Sunday) (NC)

Jan 10-11: at Michigan State
Jan 17: vs USA U-18 (Exhibition)
Jan 24-25: vs. Ohio State
Jan 31-Feb 1: at Wisconsin

Feb 7-8: vs. Michigan State
Feb 14-15: at Notre Dame
Feb 21-22: at Penn State
Feb 28-29: vs. Michigan

Here are 10 initial thoughts coming to mind on Bob Motzko's second Minnesota schedule. TV and times come at a later date, usually in September.

Column: The Year That Was 2018

A quiet Xcel Energy Center post-UMD's
Frozen Four championship in April 2018
(Photo: Nathan Wells)

Another year has come and gone in men’s college hockey. At least, calendar-wise.

December 31st ends up being a strange time to reflect over the past 365 days. Where it’s easy to turn the page to new on January 1st for most aspects of life, when it comes to college hockey, late December marks a midway point through another season. It makes sense to stop and take stock yet doing so for two halves of two different seasons? That can be tricker.

Still, as we try to make sense of the year that was 2018, several lessons seem to arise.

Top 10 2017-18 Features Nate Wrote (or) Welcome Back!

Welcome back!

With summer unofficially coming to an end after the Minnesota State Fair closing up shop for another year, September marks a new year of hockey.

It's time to prepare for the 2018-19 college hockey season. School has begun around the country. Ice sheets are ready to go. Same with captain's practices. Countdowns until opening night remains somewhere in the 20s to 40s.

Starbucks brought back its Pumpkin Spice Latte, perhaps the biggest sign fall peeks around the corner.

Prior to any preseason coverage, however, and on the one-year anniversary of The Athletic Minnesota launching, I wanted to showcase some of my favorite features from the site in the year since launching. Give them one last bit of love before turning my attention towards the future.

BLOG: On college hockey's confusing and compromising overtime format continuing

No matter your perspective on the subject, one thing remains clear. Explaining how overtime works in college hockey can be a major pain.

The same holds true for deciding what overtime format to use.

A new standardized rules proposal for every regular season game to end in a tie if tied after five minutes of five-on-five OT was not long for this world. It didn't take Nostradamus to see this simplifying decision meeting the same fate as four-on-four OT proposed two years ago.

From the moment the NCAA rules committee last month unveiled it last month, it was only a matter of time before backlash ended with a return to status quo.

Just as it was the time before. And the time before that too.

Game Story: Penn State holds on, knocks Gophers out of Big Ten Conference Tournament (Zone Coverage)

The Gophers, having likely done enough over the first 34 games to earn an at-large bid when the 16 team field is announced on March 18, will enter the NCAA Tournament on a four-game losing streak, all to the Nittany Lions and all at Pegula Arena.

The latest loss came Saturday when Penn State came out ahead 6-5 in a game which saw Minnesota (19-17-2) explode for four goals in the second period and four lead changes.

Evan Barratt scored twice Saturday, including the game-winning goal with 8:35 remaining in regulation.

“We were a little sluggish in the first and then after that I thought we played hard and fought right until the end. It’s just disappointing we didn’t get that final goal,” Minnesota head coach Don Lucia told reporters after Saturday’s game. “The guys had a great push in the second and third period and showed a lot of who they are coming back from 3-1 on the road.”

Combined with Friday’s 5-3 victory, Penn State won the best-of-three quarterfinal series 2-0 and will advance to next week’s Big Ten semifinal.

Click here to read the rest!