Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Early Departure Rankings

Each season seniors depart college while freshmen arrive to take their place. Occasionally players leave college with eligiblity remaining for professional hockey, which can have a major effect on the upcoming season.

So with that in mind, and preseason rankings being a thing, I figured to combine the two by going in a different direction.

I'm ranking the 12 teams in Minnesota's sphere - 7 Big Ten schools (yes there are 7 teams now), the 4 Minnesota schools besides the Gophers, and North Dakota - on both the number of early departures and what effect it has on the team. The earlier one left, the more it counts.

Plus it's a good way to remember with the season starting up next week who left early.

12. Michigan 
Lost: No one

The Wolverines, 2016's unofficial early departure champions, see years of underclassmen departing come to an end with a large number of underclassmen all having already left. 2017 did not have a Dylan Larkin, Kyle Connor, Zach Werenski JT Compher, Michael Downing, or Andrew Copp (and these are all from 2015 and 2016). Heck, Mel Pearson even gained an early departure by getting CC's Alex Roos to come in as a graduate transfer.

11. Bemidji State
Lost: No one

Bemidji State did not lose anyone early from the 2016-17 WCHA regular season champions. No KHL defections. All three Fitzgeralds and all one Michael Bitzer will return.

10. Minnesota State
Lost: No one

Mike Hastings' team picked up a boost with defenseman Daniel Brickley, considered one of college hockey's top undrafted free agents, returned to Mankato for his junior season. The Mavericks kept its core together and primed to contend with the WCHA's best as a heavy MacNaughton Cup favorite. Normally this would be good enough to have them lower, however, technically Minnesota State lost a player just before they stepped foot on campus when USHL goaltender of the year Matiss Kivlenieks signed with Columbus. (The Mavericks did add BU graduate transfer Connor LaCouvee in goal.)

9. Ohio State
Lost: No one

Like the three teams above them, Ohio State saw no early departures. Unlike the teams above them, the Buckeyes did say goodbye to a hearty senior class which helped lead OSU to the NCAA Tournament. Having to replace Nick Schilkey, David Gust, a non-suspended Josh Healey and both goaltenders among others could have been worse if a Mason Jobst or Matthew Weis left.

8. Minnesota
Lost: Ryan Collins (Jr.)

Annually an early departure regular, Dinkytown saw a cutback as only a lone junior defender left early. This year it was Ryan Collins, who signed with the Columbus Blue Jackets, leaving along with a solid senior class. Others, such as sophomore leading scorer Tyler Sheehy, stayed. While Minnesota continues its run of Gophers staying for at least three seasons before turning professional, having a large number of drafted players year-in and year-out does mean the team can be susceptible to seeing guys leave before their senior year.

7. Penn State
Lost: Vince Pedrie (So.)

Players leaving as undrafted free agents can also be an issue, as the Nittany Lions know. Sophomore Vince Pedrie parlayed being the top defenseman on Penn State's first-ever NCAA Tournament hockey team to a pro contract with the New York Rangers.

6. Wisconsin
Lost: Luke Kunin (So.)

Luke Kunin followed through with his draft day belief and signed with Minnesota Wild following his sophomore season. (Not that he isn't NHL-ready. I'd be shocked if Kunin, Wisconsin's second-ever sophomore captain and its leading goal scorer both years, doesn't spend time with the Wild this season.) The Badgers do bring back the other first round pick, Trent Frederic, however, and get an addition with graduate transfer Kyle Hayton joining UW from St. Lawrence. Hayton, one of the top ECAC goalies, does technically come at the expense of another sophomore as two-year starter Matt Jurusik left to the USHL.

5. St. Cloud State
Lost: Dennis Cholowski (Fr.)

St. Cloud State's first-ever first round selection signing a pro deal after his first year is frustrating. For one, Dennis Cholowski isn't suiting up this season with the Detroit Red Wings. He's not even playing with the AHL Grand Rapids Griffins, but in the WHL rather than a sophomore year at SCSU. Both Cholowski and St. Cloud State showed signs during last season's second half of improving. If it holds up the Huskies could make noise as the team returns most of its core a year older and healthier, but having another top defenseman back instead of riding Western Canadian buses would have been nice.

4. Michigan State
Lost: Mason Appleton (So.)

Appleton has been one of the few bright spots on a struggling Spartans team the past two years. Honestly he's likely the one player MSU couldn't afford to lose as Danton Cole takes over for Tom Anastos. Following in the footsteps of Mackenzie MacEachern who signed early with St. Louis a year ago, the Winnipeg Jets draft pick left East Lansing for the the True North following his sophomore season.

3. Notre Dame
Lost: Anders Bjork (Jr.), Cal Petersen (Jr.)

Way back in the early months of the offseason, back when spring had yet to turn into summer, the prevailing argument was that the Fighting Irish could be a national title contender if both top forward Bjork and three-year starting goaltender Petersen returned. Unfortunately, neither came back (and Connor Hurley transferred to Minnesota after sitting out the second half of 2016-17). Bjork signed with Boston and Petersen spurned the Buffalo Sabres fot free agency, signing with Los Angeles. Notre Dame still returns much of the team that made it to the 2017 Frozen Four and a decent freshman class without the two.

2. North Dakota
Lost: Brock Boeser (So.), Tyson Jost (Fr.), Tucker Poolman (Jr.)

The best thing one can say about an offseason in which 2 first round picks leave as underclassmen is that it could have been worse. Cam Johnson returns to lend stability in net (although Matej Tomek went to the USHL for playing time). Shane Gersich didn't sign with the Washington Capitals in spite of a 21 goal sophomore season. North Dakota does have to replace Brock Boeser (Vancouver) after getting an unexpected sophomore season and Tyson Jost (Colorado) after not getting one, along with top defenseman Tucker Poolman, putting pressure on the Fighting Hawks' freshman class.

1. Minnesota Duluth
Lost: Hunter Miska (Fr.), Neal Pionk (So.), Adam Johnson (So.)

Three freshmen and sophomores departing early is never easy. All three leaving on top of a large senior class doubles down after a season in which the Bulldogs came within a game of its second national championship in 6 years. Miska signing with Arizona means UMD needs to find its third goalie in as many years despite all three still having eligibility. Pionk signing with New York leaves Minnesota Duluth without its highest scoring defenseman and Johnson leaving in mid-July for Pittsburgh takes away a top returning forward option. All feasible early departures for UMD left, giving the Bulldogs the crown.

At the same time, it makes sense that Miska, Pionk and Johnson, all undrafted free agents, are leaving eligibility on the table. All 3 are older than their school grade. Johnson is a 22 year-old sophomore. Both Miska and Pionk are 21 year-olds.

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