Monday, September 25, 2017

Pohl Talk: Gophers ranked 3rd to open USCHO poll

Like the women's team last week, the Minnesota men open the USCHO preseason poll ranked 3rd.

The Gophers are joined by four Big Ten teams in the top 20. New member Notre Dame is eighth, Penn State tenth, Wisconsin 12th, and Ohio State is 19th. All except the Badgers made the 2017 NCAA Tournament.

Of the other Minnesota schools, three are in the top 20 while the fourth, Bemidji State, receives votes. UMD is sixth, St. Cloud State is ninth and Minnesota State, picked to win the WCHA, is 18th.

Obviously, the 50 voters seem to be high on Minnesota, moving the Gophers up from 7th in the final poll last season. There are things to be excited about with the team.

At the same time, it seems like Minnesota moves up in the preseason every year regardless.

Turns out that is exactly the case. Voters annually begin the year buying Gopher stock. You have to go back to 2007-08 to find a USCHO preseason poll where Minnesota did not get better between March and September. On average, the team moved up 3.7 spots over the last decade.

Minnesota's USCHO Ranking: 

Preseason 2017-18: 3rd (up from 7th in final 2016-17 poll)
Preseason 2016-17: 13th (up from top team receiving votes)
Preseason 2015-16: 9th (up from 12th)
Preseason 2014-15: 1st (up from 2nd)
Preseason 2013-14: 5th (up from 6th; previously 2nd pre-NCAAs)
Preseason 2012-13: 2nd (up from 4th)

The above stretch includes the Gophers' run of six consecutive conference championships, two Frozen Four appearances and four top-10 finishes. It's a testament that even in 2013-14, an offseason in which five underclassmen left early, sees the Gophers begin the year higher than the last. Yes, Minnesota reached the national championship game that season, but they weren't even picked by coaches to win the Big Ten. (That would be Wisconsin.) Other years are similar where things look good on paper.

Preseason 2011-12: 19th (up from receiving votes)
Preseason 2010-11: 15th (up from receiving votes)
Preseason 2009-10: 9th (up from 19th)
Preseason 2008-09: 10th (finished 10th)
Preseason 2007-08: 5th (down from 2nd)

Even during years in which the Gophers struggled, like clockwork, the team began the year ranked higher than the last.

And in fairness to 2007-08, Minnesota was 2nd only because the last poll in this time was before the NCAA Regionals began. The Gophers, a #1 seed in 2006-07 that failed to make the Frozen Four, might have been lower if one existed between the regionals and Frozen Four, or after the Frozen Four.

Likely there are a few reasons for why Minnesota ends up being higher. It's a brand name college hockey school with known players where expectations end up being sky high. (Think Michigan football.) There's continuity. Don Lucia over the past few seasons continues to keep underclassmen from leaving to the pros before their junior season. Nick Leddy and Jordan Schroeder are the last to do so and that was in 2010. Continuity helps when making selections by looking at rosters and seeing who returns and who left.

Finally, the Gophers have not won a national championship during this stretch. Ending the year short of one - especially for a school in which not winning the NCAA Tournament can be a disappointment for a portion of the fanbase - and short of the Frozen Four leaves room to grow.

(Note: I didn't do this for the women's team as a comparison because, simply, when you win four national championships in five years it's difficult to start any higher. That said, the Gophers were fourth to end last season's USCHO poll and moved up to third this year.)

No comments:

Post a Comment