Thursday, August 22, 2019

College Hockey Mailbag: The New AIC, Minnesota Recruiting, Dark Horses, White Claws & More (Vol. 1)

Welcome to the first 2019-20 college hockey mailbag.

I'd like to make these a regular feature whether it's here or at another outlet during the season. (Get at me folks!) Discuss what's going in college hockey, whether it's men's, women's, big picture, the story of the weekend, Gophers, whatever you want.

If this is your first time visiting, I am currently in the midst of a 60 Days, 60 Teams series where each of the 60 men's Division 1 NCAA hockey teams are profiled one-by-one and one day at a time in 600 words or less. The schedule and links to all previous entries can be found here.

Anyways, this week's first volume features questions on most of the Minnesota schools, the new NEWHA Conference, Arizona State's conference future and much, much more.

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Well, the easy answer would be AIC. The Yellow Jackets return all but five goals from last season, its top line and a goaltender who was named Atlantic Hockey Conference Tournament MVP and shut down St. Cloud State's elite offense in the NCAA Tournament. That sounds a lot like the AIC of last year.

But I'm guessing the point of the question is to find who is the surprise Atlantic Hockey team that can come out of nowhere and be trouble for whoever faces them in the NCAA Tournament. In that case, AIC goes into the category with Air Force where, if it happens, no one will be surprised anymore. Imagine that 12 months ago.

In that case, two teams come to mind as being the next AHA surprise. Niagara nearly beat American International, falling in OT of the Atlantic Hockey championship game. A team that put things together in the second half, the Purple Eagles return the conference's top goal scorer in Ludwig Stenlund. A dark horse is Sacred Heart, which has been slowly building a quality team with the past couple of recruiting classes. The Pioneers return most of the team that finished 11-5-2 and adds a couple key pieces that should help turn weaknesses into strengths.

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Both come from the same era of Huskies hockey. I thought Ben Hanowski would make it to the point where Calgary made a smart call to get his rights in the Jarome Iginla trade. Between being the Minnesota HS all-time leading scorer and his career at St. Cloud State, if you told me in 2012 that Hanowski would be out of North American hockey in 3 years I'd be shocked.

I'm not exactly shocked to see Nic Dowd find a regular NHL role, but of a group that includes Hanowski, Kalle Kossila, Jonny Brodzinski, Kevin Gravel and a Hobey winner in Drew LeBlanc, it's a little surprising he's currently the one with the most NHL games.

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2019-20 marks the first season where the New England Women's Hockey Alliance, acts as a conference rather than a schedule alliance of mostly Division 2 schools. Slowly but surely the plan is for the group to break out of its bubble (and Pairwise predicament) and schedule more Division 1 teams.

Of the group, St. Anselm remains the team to beat, returning much of a lineup that went 17-0-1 against the teams in the alliance. The other schools are getting better. Until proven otherwise, the Hawks fly above the rest of the NEWHA.

The addition of first-year program Long Island University gives the NEWHA six teams, which is important. Six teams are the minimum needed for an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. (It should be said the NCAA Tournament is technically open to both Division 1 and Division 2 teams and the NEWHA will be adhering to D1 recruiting rules.) That won't happen this year. It takes a couple years to get an automatic bid, however, the ability to get one should have lasting effects on the women's hockey game.

What I'm curious to see is how these changes affect the teams. The new conference puts the teams in a spot where face higher competition. That begins this year. Seeing growth and development from the top would be a start.

While St. Anselm did not lose to a NEWHA school, the Hawks traveled to St. Paul and were defeated by Division 3 Hamline. Granted, the Pipers made the D3 Frozen Four, but that helps show where the NEWHA teams are at the moment.

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In a year where Arizona State took care of business almost everywhere, joining a conference remains out of reach. If anything, it got slightly worse. The conference making the most noise wanting the Sun Devils, the WCHA, saw itself imploding with seven schools leaving the conference. Everyone else seems to be in a wait-and-see mode.

At this point, the Big Ten is going full steam ahead with the idea its eighth hockey school will be a current Big Ten university. The conference operates with the mindset that it is a matter of when not if, Illinois joins. Even before the school took a feasibility study, the Big Ten wanted to avoid another affiliate. That seems to be the case even less now that Illinois believes itself to be "inside the red zone."

As much as the WCHA wanted Arizona State, the Sun Devils seem to best fit in a conference that does not look to expand (NCHC), has a spot but isn't geographically nearby (Hockey East), or a combination of the two (Big Ten).

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A mixture of the two. Motzko and his new recruiting staff are making a conscious effort to not rely on just recruiting in Minnesota's traditional pipelines (or the ones open more recently). At the same time, the Gophers head coach, somewhat out of necessity at SCSU, is comfortable recruiting areas outside of Minnesota's strengths during the Lucia Era.

He's trying to find a certain type of player for his system. He's trying to get players who are on the upswing of their development when wearing the "M" on campus and not afraid to go outside the normal recruiting pool.

It also has to do with the growth of non-traditional hockey markets. Having more players outside Minnesota isn't that big of a surprise as it's something seen towards the end of Lucia's tenure at Minnesota. That's the path hockey is heading. There are players who developed elsewhere with ties to Minnesota (i.e. McManus and Johnson) along with commits who are not from the state or country. For someone who was brought in for his recruiting and player success, it would be odd if Motzko didn't continue what has worked for him throughout his head coaching career.


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Do I think Minnesota State has a team capable of winning a game or two at the NCAA Tournament? Yes. Marc Michaelis, Parker Tuomie and Connor Mackey all returning despite varying degrees of NHL interest helps. Dryden McKay was a pleasant surprise last year. Mike Hastings built a program that continues to be the cream of the crop in the WCHA.

Am I going to bet on it? Not after the past few years. We've passed "fool me twice, shame on me" territory.

Honestly, I thought last year was the year the Mavericks were going to get the elusive NCAA Tournament win. I said as much for a good portion of the season. So it felt really good when Minnesota State took a 4-0 lead on Providence and not so much after when it turned into 6-3 Friars. At this point,  I won't be surprised to see it happen yet, in true Minnesotan fashion, am keeping the expectations grounded after being proven wrong, only to get hopes up right before they get dashed.

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via GIPHY

Actually, that's a good question for everyone. Win or lose, bandwagon or long-suffering, alum or just like the colors, why did you choose the school you root for?

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I asked him once, along with Minnesota Duluth several players, and got a typical hockey non-answer. So this is my analysis without using the phrase "compete level" or "Bulldogs hockey."

For those who don't know, Sandelin has won at least one NCAA Tournament game in all nine appearances. (It goes back further for the program, as does UMD's overtime NCAA streak.) As a team, Minnesota Duluth doesn't allow too many opportunities. When things go awry for the Bulldogs, they are comfortable with their backs against the wall and playing in one-goal games. Every team is prepared for the NCAA Tournament, but the combination of the two makes it difficult for teams unfamiliar with Minnesota Duluth to get an edge and take advantage of the few opportunities given.

(This seems like a good time to plug the long feature I wrote about UMD's run to a second straight title for Minnesota Hockey Magazine. There are more insights than this answer.)

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Skipping Atlantic Hockey because that's been answered. Teams that missed the 2019 NCAA Tournament who would be a dark horse pick to win each conference:

Big Ten: Wisconsin. Penn State would be a good one but there's enough momentum where it doesn't seem like a dark horse pick.
ECAC: Brown or Dartmouth by default. Each of the NCAA teams would be ahead, making these the biggest dark horses of the conferences.
Hockey East: UMass Lowell or BC, who is basically Michigan football at this point in being picked to win Hockey East.
NCHC: Western Michigan returns a lot of talent. North Dakota had bad PDO.
WCHA: Northern Michigan. Bowling Green would lead the "chip on our shoulder" rankings if that counted.

Some of these teams have better chances than others. Three of the six conference winners (American International, Quinnipiac, Massachusetts) did not make the NCAA Tournament the prior year.

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Sometimes I get back to hockey rinks in the fall wondering what songs of the summer I surely missed and will hear three times per game. That's kind of how I feel with the current flavored seltzers fad. One day people were drinking IPAs and the next it's all about the "Ain't no laws when you're drinking Claws" and Four Loko being a thing again. What's next? People getting iced?

Basically what I'm saying is thank you summer of 2019 for making me feel like an old man telling people to get off my non-existent lawn.

Let's do this mailbag thing again. Until next time...

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